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The Case for 2009 LeBron As the GOAT Peak

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Agreed. This is one of the points I was making up-thread. There is a substantial difference between the NBA then and now, and three point shooting was not as important or necessary then as it was today. I mean, Phil Jackson's recent demonstrative ignorance with respect to 3-pt shooting should illustrate the point.

Threes just weren't as integral to the game then as they are today for numerous reasons.

And we saw he could hit them pretty good, when he wanted.

There's no debate Jordan is a better shooter than 'Bron. I don't think that's even really close.

I don't really mind LeBron isn't as great of a scorer, because Jordan set the bar so ridiculously high in that regard, but everything else, I agree it's very close when it comes to those two.

Clearly the best players from their generation. Imagine those two on the same team? People talk about them going against each other all the time, it would have been fun, but we've seen great players go against each other.

I'd been more curious how they'd do together. It'd be the most dominant thing we've ever seen in professional sports. Every game would be an event.

I just seriously wonder how dominant they would have been if they played together.

I mean Pippen and Jordan were VERY dominant together, and LeBron is so much better by a huge landslide than Pippen.

I can't even fathom how badly they'd destroy teams if they played together.
 
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I don't really care about the numbers. Looking at the LeBron now who's went through winning titles and the battles and there's no way he was at his best in 2009

The mental has to match the physical....
 
Lets go through it shall we?



Which is one of the reasons your argument doesn't work for me.



But when you include RAPM/RPM you're not including one season but many seasons including predicting the next upcoming season. You can't use these stats (including win shares and VORP) out of context, and that's one of the points I was making earlier.



I'm not sure if I would argue that there was as a substantial difference in the areas you're referencing as being LeBron's strengths. For example, it seems you're arguing that James was somehow in another tier defensively than Jordan - but that's false. They were both elite defenders, in fact, I might argue that Jordan was a better defender overall on the perimeter for numerous reasons. We're talking about someone who averaged nearly 3 steals a game for over a decade of play. That is astounding.

Regarding rebounding, again the difference isn't quite as distinguishable as your argument seems to suggest. I mean, we're literally talking about 1 extra rebound for James. That's not a significant different I think.

Your argument with regarding "facilitating" I think is flawed in that nowhere in your posts do you reference Scottie Pippen, BJ Armstrong or John Paxson. Again, missing context. Jordan played alongside all three, who were capable facilitators and point-guards/forwards yet still had the second most assists on the team, even when his job was to score and defend.

I'm not saying James isn't a better facilitator than Jordan, as I think that's a difficult question to conclusively answer one way or another. I am saying though that James' game is more modeled after Magic Johnson than Jordan, and in that, he often looks to pass rather than to shoot, so yes, he'd likely get his teammates involved somewhat more than Jordan. But, I think the point is that the difference here is far more subtle than your argument would make it seem.

With respect to scoring, Jordan's ability to score the ball was simply unreal and is in another tier than James. Yes, 1991 stands out overall for numerous reasons, but Jordan actually took his foot off the pedal that year. In that season averaged over the previous 5, Jordan scored at a 34 PPG clip on a .525 FG%. That is fucking insane. While James is an elite scorer for his era, that's not his game, and he had far fewer tools to score during his first Cleveland stint than Jordan had in his first championship run. This is where I think we do see some substantial space between these two players and Jordan truly stands out from the crowd.

That's why I don't see your argument. Because while James might be a marginally better facilitator, his defense and rebounding aren't really that much better or worse than Jordan's either way; however, Jordan's ability to score, at will, and massively, allowed him to win six virtually consecutive championships.



I think it's really an exercise in futility. I don't think you can look at a single year and say - this was Jordan or James at their peak. These guys might decline in scoring and improve defensively, or improve their efficiency will playing less on the other end of the ball to reserve energy. It's just too fluid a game for this type of analysis. You're assuming that Jordan's peak scoring ability was 31 PPG (1991) which is somewhat of a ridiculous position because that was actually a significant dip for him; he had scored more and at high efficiency in both prior and future seasons. It's just not a rational way to make an assessment.

Essentially what you're doing is grabbing one season, out of context of the rest, and trying to make an assessment without any other actually useful data.

Instead what you should do is extrapolate their likely peak performance based on some statistical model. Determine if that model agrees with observational data and analysis, and then use that as a metric for their respective "peaks."

But simply plucking a season out of over a dozen seasons and saying, this one in this era vs this one in another, on different teams, essentially against different competition (SOS), and with substantially different rules; I don't get how you can come to a rational conclusion.



What? It's practically universally accepted that it was harder for perimeter players to score in the 90s versus today.



What does this have to do with the rule/officiating changes, the influence of the 3-point shot, hand-checking, zone defenses, the permitting of physical defensive play, etc?

The styles of basketball are completely different.



This has nothing to do with the argument at hand unless you're saying some international player made a significant difference in Jordan or James peak seasons.



So what?



But it seems like instead of approaching this question critically, it seems like you're trying to rationalize a preconceived notion.

You've discounted the substantial difference in scoring that Jordan produces, you've discounted the fact that Jordan is a substantially scorer, better shooter, better free throw shooter, and is a superior ball-handler. From the box score, you've attempted to argue that +1.7 assists, and +1.6 rebounds is somehow conclusively better than -0.5 TOV, +1.0 STL, and +3.1 PPG, wherein from some fairly agreed upon standards (see Basketball Prospectus), we'd likely conclude these differences to be marginal at best, with a slim advantage to Jordan if anything.



I don't really want to get into this as much because I think it's too subjective. It's really a matter of opinion when we're talking about respect, disrespect, etc etc..

I think the problem most people would have with your argument, myself included, is that you've essentially discounted all of Jordan's strengths, while disregarding James' glaring weaknesses.

Jordan didn't need to team up with Magic and Bird, Jordan didn't need to "grow up" in the middle of his NBA career to learn to play ball; Jordan Pippen made Scottie into what he ultimately became, not the other way around. Jordan went the NBA Finals and won, six times.

The list goes on and on. And again, this comes back to the definition of peak season, and I highly doubt if you ask James he'd agree with 2008-09 being his best season. Nor do I think it's fair to look at Jordan's peak scoring by looking solely at the 1990-91 season. I don't think you're using the data necessary to answer your question.

Simply put, you might be right, you might be wrong; I just don't see enough evidence to come to the same conclusion as you. And yes, I have an opinion, and yes, it's different from yours - but I don't think the question can be posed as simply as you're attempting to frame it.
Jordan was great off ball defender. He would come and steal from the weak side. Pippen did all the dirty work. Just ask Magic Johnson.
 
The way I see it, James is too flawed to be the best all time.

He took a long time to become really clutch, and to this day, honestly, I still see him making so many mistakes in the end of games. And actually most of these mistakes are turnovers. If there is a statistic about turnovers in the last 3 min of games, James is probably leading this by far and away. Nowadays it happens even more, but mostly because the guy gets to games endings completely gassed.

Also his jumpshot indeed hurts a lot his scoring skills, along with his free throw %.

It's paradoxical to say this, but while James is the most flexible player, being more complete in the sense he can do more roles, he is also more flawed than Jordan. I see Jordan as a more stable and reliable player/leader, honestly. And the difference in scoring talent is just too big.

Also LeBron changes a whole team scheme, it always runs through him. Spacing is also very important due to his dependancy on penetrating.

Jordan could fit in any scheme you want, with or without spacing, carrying the ball or not. He didn't do it a lot because Pippen is amazing, but he was perfectly capable of commanding offense.

Love LeBron, but Jordan is clearly better IMO. This is very very unlikely to change.

To me LeBron is at another tier along with Kobe, Magic and others.
 
Jordan was great off ball defender. He would come and steal from the weak side. Pippen did all the dirty work. Just ask Magic Johnson.

You got it backwards. Pippen was GREAT as an off ball defender (and on), where he'd cause havoc as a help defender.

Jordan was a great on ball defender, top-notch as they come. I remember when Jerry Stackhouse (when he was really good) came into the league, he was really hot, playing at a high level, and Jordan just shut him down completely. Stackhouse couldn't do jack shit against him.

Pippen guarded Magic because he's bigger. Magic was 6-9 and weighed 240. Why wouldn't you put the bigger and stronger Pippen on him?

Jordan wasn't that big then, I doubt he was even 200 pounds. But later in his career he became much more stout physically.
 
Jordan didn't need to team up with Magic and Bird, Jordan didn't need to "grow up" in the middle of his NBA career to learn to play ball; Jordan Pippen made Scottie into what he ultimately became, not the other way around. Jordan went the NBA Finals and won, six times.

I think Jordan has a very good case for GOAT over Lebron. Well, definitely pre-retirement MJ - he was just unreal at point a taller version of D Wade is the best way I can describe him.

That being said I think the teammate argument is not a good one. Jordan and the Bulls really benefited from the LAL/Boston/Detroit teams getting old and expansion diluting away talent before the Euro infusion of talent balanced things out.
There best competition was a Knicks team with Ewing, Starks, etc who no one would call great

-LAL: Kareem had retired, Cooper was old, Worthy was wearing down
-Phoenix: Barkley and KJ were great but this a team that depended on Oliver Miller and Richard Dumas for example for big minutes
-Portland: probably the best team the Bulls played in the Finals and they were notorious for being soft. Never got past the Lakers when they were good

Of course, Jordan didn't pick his opponents and I don't think it diminishes his case but I also don't think him having lesser teammates then say Lebron on Miami comparatively is not a great case as you didn't need a great team to win in the mid-90's IMO. Christ look at Houston's first title winning team: Hakeem, Thorpe, Elie, Maxwell, Kenny, and a really young Cassell. That's a solid team no doubt but the equivalent team right would probably be a healthy Portland type squad (Hakeem better then LMA, Lillard better then the combo of Kenny/Cassell).

Now of course post-retirement MJ is interesting: this is what most people remember but man he was clearly not the same guy but he did happen to have a great team.
 
^^^ I agree

But I don't think the Bulls were ever a, really, really, really great (at least his first three title teams). I mean, they don't even compare talent wise to those Pistons, Celtics, Lakers, at all, no way.

They were a team made up with a bunch of specialists, built around Pippen and Jordan. Grant was pretty rock solid, but hardly a star by any means.

His second team was a lot better, but still, I don't know if I'd classified them as one of the all-time greatest teams ever.

Jordan took down some impressive Cavalier teams. We were no slouch at all, even if we didn't have a true great, great player.

Those Utah teams were really good. Barkley's Suns were very, very good, with nice talent.

The Sonics and Blazers were weak opponents. The Lakers when Jordan won that year, I agree, were definitely diminished too.

I don't think overall Jordan has played better teams in his career than LB has, though, especially in the finals.

That's why I think the record thing in the finals is always a bad one to make. You got to look at the teams, and who those teams were going up against.

LB's first year against the Spurs, I mean come on, Jordan would have had no chance either.

His first year with the Heat though, totally different story, LB was terrible, the Heat should have won it.

The Thunder might not have been 'ready' but were super talented. Then he beats the Spurs his second year, very impressive, even if the Spurs kinda blew that one.

Then loses against the Spurs next year, played great, but his team didn't show up, the Spurs were dominant. Jordan would have loss too in LB's shoes.

Then of course last season, LB was impressive, two all-stars go down. Even if I thought GS was a bit overrated, they were a respectable opponent, no doubt, and what LB did was nothing short of amazing.

So when it comes to finals, overall, I don't think Jordan has a massive advantage. Has one, because LB's performance in '11 was horrific, and Jordan was never close to that bad.
 
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Age 23-29 LBJ was the apex of what a wing player could be. Could be a better shooter but does that really matter when he got to the rim at will? They'd build a wall and it didn't matter. They'd sag off, it didn't matter. Probably could've been better on defense, but tough to do when you're dominating the ball every single offensive possession while playing 40+ minutes. And Mike Brown's system made up the difference anyway.

Best player I've ever seen. Did things I've never seen on a regular basis. You were guaranteed to see freakish coast-to-coast transition plays every single game. It's no one's fault in particular that mo Williams was the best player peak LeBron (Imo) was paired with. By default you weren't going to get a top 10 pick after LeBron's rookie year because he's so talented.
 
Age 23-29 LBJ was the apex of what a wing player could be. Could be a better shooter but does that really matter when he got to the rim at will? They'd build a wall and it didn't matter. They'd sag off, it didn't matter. Probably could've been better on defense, but tough to do when you're dominating the ball every single offensive possession while playing 40+ minutes. And Mike Brown's system made up the difference anyway.

Best player I've ever seen. Did things I've never seen on a regular basis. You were guaranteed to see freakish coast-to-coast transition plays every single game. It's no one's fault in particular that mo Williams was the best player peak LeBron (Imo) was paired with. By default you weren't going to get a top 10 pick after LeBron's rookie year because he's so talented.

Jordan was every bit as punishing to the basket as LeBron. He was just smaller, but that didn't make him any less destructive getting to the hoop.

The Jordan rules were created by the Bad Boys for a reason, otherwise Jordan would destroy teams, by himself even at times.
 
LeBron has a very good case for GOAT peak year/years. The OP makes many of the salient points. I don't think I could conclusively say whose peak between Jordan, LBJ, Shaq, Kareem, and Wilt was the GOATiest but LeBron does indeed have a good case. I watched Jordan as a teen and young adult, and of course Shaq as a teen and adult and of course now LBJ.

James' on court impact was in 2009 simply incredible. The Cavs had an ORTG of 115.6 with him on and a DRTG of 100.6. With him off, they had an ORTG of 102.6 and a DRTG of 108.8. That's a NET +21.2, one of the three highest we have data for from 2001 onward. With him on court, the Cavs had the equivalent of the best offense in the 2009 season and the best defense in the 2009 season. With him off court, the Cavs had the second worst offense in the league and the 19th ranked defense. The Cavs were a NET +15 with James on court. For comparison's sake, this year's GSW were a NET +10.2. The '95-96 Bulls were a NET +13.4. They were a NET -6.2 with him off, equivalent to this year's LA Lakers. Incredible, incredible impact even if we are only looking at about 900 minutes with him off court since he basically played all game long every game.

So, a team that's a NET -6.2, equivalent to the Lakers from this year without James on court, wound up winning 66 games and posting an SRS of 8.7 with him on court. Only 10 teams in NBA HISTORY have done that:
'96 Bulls, '97 Bulls, '72 Lakers, '67 Sixers, 2015 GSW, '92 Bulls, '86 Celtics, '71 Bucks, '08 Celtics, and the '09 Cavs. Every single team on this list won the title that year save the Cavs, and EVERY team on this list boasted multiple hall of famers (Jordan/Pippen/Rodman eventually, Wilt and Hal Greer, Bird/McHale/Parish/Walton, Kareem and Oscar Robertson, KG/Ray Allen/Pierce most probably, GSW Warriors--remains to be seen). The top 5 minutes leaders for that Cavs team? LBJ, Mo, Andy, Delonte, Booby. Ben Wallace should make the Hall, but sadly, he was a shell of himself after he got injured during the season. One player playing the role of Superman elevated a team to extraordinary heights via superhuman play.

I wanted to compare this to Jordan's impact on the Bulls in the '95-'96 season. This is tangential to the GOAT peak debate the OP is initiated because Jordan wasn't at his peak in '95-96 BUT his Bulls had their best team which makes for rooting up some interesting insights. Again, RealGM's stats masters only have raw +/- data from 1994 onward and play-by-play data from 2001 onward.

Jordan was +16.7 per 100 possessions ON COURT in the '95-'96 season. That's great, but Pippen was +16.8 ON COURT in the very same '95-'96 season. The highest +/- ON COURT seasons ever are Duncan, +16.9 in 2004-2005, Pippen +16.8 in '95-'96, Jordan +16.7 in '95-'96, Manu +16.6 in 2004-2005, and Curry +16.6 in 2014-2015.

Here's what's interesting, though. The Bulls were +1.5 per 100 possessions with Jordan OFF court (remember--the 2009 Cavs were -6.2 per 100 with James off court), equivalent to a decent team. For comparison, the OKC Thunder were a NET +2.3 this season and the Grizzlies were a +3.5. The '95-'96 Houston Rockets were a +1.9 and the '95-'96 Atlanta Hawks were a +1.4. The Bulls were actually better than average with Jordan off court that year. Obviously a lot had to do with the confidence playing with leads gives to the lesser players, but remember, the 2009 Cavs were accustomed to getting out to big ass leads after the first quarter and when LBJ sat, the lead shrank.

The following season ('96-'97), the Bulls were +4.3 per 100 possessions with Jordan off court. With Jordan off court, the team would STILL have been the 4th best team in the NBA per NET Rating. Again, remember, the Cavs were -6.2 with James off court. The heights James led the Cavs to in 2009 were simply breathtaking and had we won the title that year, history would have been so, so different.

It would be interesting to see what Jordan's ON-OFF numbers from 1985-1991 were so we can get an actual comparison of impact numbers. Were the Bulls in the mid and late '80s equivalent to the best team in the NBA with him on court? Maybe if he didn't have Pippen, he still would have led the Bulls to their heights with a supporting cast like LeBron's. Seems doubtful, but it's possible.


As the OP mentioned, LeBron having the TWO highest RAPMs from the 2001-2015 period (and perhaps from the 1994-2015 period--posters at RealGM have used old season guides that contain total raw +/- totals data to estimate RAPM for the years 1994-2015) bolsters LeBron's case greatly. As gourimoko mentioned, RAPM uses prior year data so the RAPM number cannot be said to be a definite number for the season but the fact that James has the two highest RAPM seasons and the highest by a good margin over the number 3 season is telling. It would be great if we had play by play data for previus years to see Jordan's RAPM for '90-91 or '89-90 or before to see if he gets to 10 or not. It's highly doubtful that he got to 10 in '92-'93 or in '91-'92. Take a look (the list needs to . He updated for the 2012-2014 seasons; James in 2012, 2013, and 2014 has RAPM #s of 7.81. 7.98, and 7.06). Note how truly great James has been and how much of an impact a player like Manu has made: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/top-rapm

James posting the highest single season BPM, third highest VORP, and 7th highest WS/48 in the same season also bolsters his case. His absolutely ridiculous 18.16 BPM in the playoffs will be difficult to top (Jordan's highest was 14.30 in 1990 in 16 games vs. 14 for James) as will James' all-time playoff high .399 WS/48 and all-time highest playoff PER of 37+ with at least 10 games played. In addition, James had the third highest playoff VORP in 2009 (2.95 in 14 games vs. 3.52 for Duncan in 24 games and 3.21 for James himself in 23 games in 2012) despite only playing 14 games.
 
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In all honesty, why can't we appreciate Lebron for what he has done and is doing now, Ditto Jordan, Shaq, Kareem, Magic, Kobe, Big O, Wilt, and now Steph, KD and AD (most likely are next in line). I know this feed is literally appreciating everything Lebron has done ditto Jordan et al, but its my personal belief that we can decide the best player of all time when the NBA is over for good (god forbid).

There will always be the next best (e.g. the 7-foot-something kid from my region of the earth who can handle like a guard and shoot like KD Thon Maker (and yes, i've seen him in a scratch match in person), and another Australian Ben Simmons (committed to LSU) just to name 2 who are in the discussion) young player knocking the legends off their perches.

Look at the Open court episode where they go over the top 50 players of all time as of 1997 Cleveland all-star game and then decide the next 10 who should be in there;

List for anyone wondering : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Greatest_Players_in_NBA_History#List
Its a lot of conjecture and if you guys want to go through and see who would be in there now go, that would be a fun discussion but all these players are amazing in their own right and deserve a play in the upper echelon of NBA history.

Look, the boring abyss that is the NBA offseason starts these debates, but it's just my personal opinion that we should appreciate all these legends whilst they play the game, and we can label the GOAT when everything is all said and done (hopefully it goes on forever).

I know this isn't gonna stop anybody nor do i want anyone to stop as its throughly entertaining and the passion is awesome. I haven't seen Jordan Play in person, nor Lebron, nor have i seen an NBA game in person (need one brought to Australia, but that's an issue for another day), but what i do know is that when i inevitably do, i will be appreciating everyone on that basketball floor, as these are the best players on the planet playing the game we love at a phenomenal level. Yes, inevitably comparisons will be made, some Horrible/bad/Overrated and some Great/good/underrated, but there will be great players in the future, lets just appreciate them. It's my wish to go around america following the NBA and i will make it happen some day, but until then i will be sitting here, on the other side of the world watching this great game and appreciating everything all players can give us, because damn is it special! I encourage you to do the same from time to time
 
Okay, purely hypothetical question: you have the first overall pick of anyone who has played the game. Who do you choose?

To me there are only four options: Jordan, Wilt, Russell, or James.

I go James after a long period of time pacing.

He may not be the most talented, but he's up there. He is however, one of the most impressive physical specimens to ever live. We underrate him, I think, as ridiculous as that sounds. His combination of speed, strength, coordination, and brains have never been seen before
 
Okay, purely hypothetical question: you have the first overall pick of anyone who has played the game. Who do you choose?

To me there are only four options: Jordan, Wilt, Russell, or James.

I go James after a long period of time pacing.

He may not be the most talented, but he's up there. He is however, one of the most impressive physical specimens to ever live. We underrate him, I think, as ridiculous as that sounds. His combination of speed, strength, coordination, and brains have never been seen before

It's either Jordan or Kareem. Russell and Wilt are nowhere near them tbh.
 
Statistically, 2009 LeBron might have been the best LeBron. But, as a player in terms of overall impact, leadership and ability to make others around him better, post-2012 LeBron is the best. Always thought, last year was sort of the transition year for him as well as the team. New team, new coach, adjusting to new teammates, so many adversities with injuries etc. I know physically he isn't the same as he used to be and call me crazy, but I feel the best is yet to come from him. The only thing remains to be seen is does he become more Magic Johnson or more Karl Malone as he grows older.
 
It's either Jordan or Kareem. Russell and Wilt are nowhere near them tbh.

Again, you need to educate yourself a little bit, before making absurd claims like this.



There's no way you can have a top-5 of all-time list, and leave him off. It'd be absurd.

You'd have to leave LeBron off too. LeBron only has two titles, just like Wilt, should that be used against him?

He was every bit, if not more dominant than LeBron in his time. Both played in different eras and are different players obviously.

But Wilt should be penalized why exactly?
 

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