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The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread (2012 Playoffs and Ping Pong Balls)

Discussion in 'Cavs Talk' started by rabman_gold, Jan 13, 2011.

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  1. rabman_gold

    rabman_gold Anti-Florida yet stuck here...

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    Keeping this up for you guys to see how it works.

    I'm going to do it both ways this year. I also updated some of the ways I'm doing this as well. Thank you for your patience.

    Here's the rules for the rest of the year:
    1. Start with 66 games, combine your wins, any team's losses, add 1, and you automatically beat them in rankings.
    2. 66 - Cavs' wins + Any Team's losses + tie-breakers = Win in rankings.
    3. Start with 66 games, combine your losses, any team's wins, add 1, and you can't reach them.
    4. 66 - Cavs' losses + Any team's wins + tie-breakers in opponents favor = Loss in rankings.
    5. If a team is above the Cavs in playoffs, use Cavs losses + opponents wins + tie-breakers instead.
    6. If a team is below the Cavs in lottery ranking, use Cavs wins + opponents losses + tie-breakers instead.

    The first two are for playoff contention, if you can call it that. The other two are for lottery chances. Which side will you choose?

    Games Left: 1

    The playoffs:
    <table><tbody border="0.5"><tr><th>Teams</th><th>Rankings</th><th>Magic Numbers</th></tr><tr><td>Detroit
    </td><td>10</td><td>Better</td></tr><tr><td>New Jersey
    </td><td>11</td><td>Luck</td></tr><tr><td>Toronto
    </td><td>12</td><td>Next</td></tr><tr><td>Cleveland
    </td><td>13</td><td>Year :gap:
    </td></tr></tbody></table>
    Translation: So, no more playoffs. I'll keep this up so at least there's a table available for next year (and the year after). Don't forget about this post, since the Cavs WILL be in the playoffs sooner or later (Dan Gilbert's paying for it with Kyrie, Baron's salary, Walton's salary, and the Lakers draft pick).

    And the lottery:
    <table><tbody border="0.5"><tr><th>Teams</th><th>Rankings</th><th>Magic Numbers</th></tr><tr><td>New Orleans
    </td><td>3</td><td>It
    </td></tr><tr><td>Cleveland
    </td><td>3</td><td>Could've</td></tr><tr><td>Sacramento
    </td><td>5</td><td>Been
    </td></tr><tr><td>New Jersey
    </td><td>5</td><td>Much
    </td></tr><tr><td>Toronto
    </td><td>7</td><td>Worse</td></tr></tbody></table>
    Translation: So, I'll just keep this here for next year, so if it's okay, I'd appreciate no permanent lock since I also do chances for good playoff spots above.
    Sacramento's Magic Number: 0
    They're gone. Better luck next year... so we can steal your pick instead.

    Laker's Games Left: 1
    Laker's Magic Number: 0 (we officially have the Laker's pick this year, be bad next year so we can profit)
    Lakers Pick before toss: 25th or 24th

    And some info on the Lottery Here (click me!):

    13 Draft Lotteries since 2012:
    <table><tbody><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Times in Top 3</th><th>Times in Top 5</th></tr> <tr><td>Worst</td><td>9 times (69.2%)
    </td><td>13 times (100%)
    </td></tr> <tr><td>2nd Worst</td><td>5 times (38.5%)
    </td><td>13 times (100%)
    </td></tr> <tr><td>3rd Worst</td><td>4 times (30.8%)
    </td><td>12 times (92.3%)
    </td></tr> <tr><td>4th Worst</td><td>6 times (46.2%)
    </td><td>11 times (84.6%)
    </td></tr> <tr><td>5th Worst</td><td>6 times (46.2%)
    </td><td>07 times (53.8%)
    </td></tr> <tr><td>6th Worst</td><td>4 times (30.8%)
    </td><td>Same</td></tr> <tr><td>7th Worst</td><td>2 times (15.4%)
    </td><td>Same</td></tr> <tr><td>8th Worst</td><td>01 time (07.7%)
    </td><td>Same</td></tr> <tr><td>9th Worst</td><td>01 time (07.7%)
    </td><td>Same</td></tr> <tr><td>10th Worst</td><td>0 times
    </td><td>Same</td></tr> <tr><td>11th Worst</td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td></tr> <tr><td>12th Worst</td><td>Same</td><td>Same</td></tr> <tr><td>13th Worst</td><td>01 time (07.7%)
    </td><td>Same</td></tr> <tr><td>14th Worst</td><td>0 times
    </td><td>Same</td></tr></tbody></table>
    Conclusion from link (view at discretion): Avoid 5 at all costs. It doesn't give high odds for a top 5 pick, let alone top 3. Get at least a 4th seed lottery pick to allow some flexibility.

    ------------------------

    Credit to the following poster (thank this post as well):

    Believeland-OH

    You did a good job with the analysis. Hopefully you're up for it again next year (maybe on the other end). Thank you for everything.
    ------------------------

    Just one more game.

    Updated: Friday, April 27, 2012 @ 10:40 AM - Done for the year, so ya when it matters next year.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 27, 2012
  2. Scrote Squad

    Scrote Squad NBA Starter

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    Finally, something to get at least a little bit excited about.
     
  3. cdt

    cdt Oh My God! Staff Member

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    Rabman glad you saw my post...this will be a useful thread. Go everyone but us!
     
  4. rabman_gold

    rabman_gold Anti-Florida yet stuck here...

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    ... Whatever...

    Just don't sticky this. I hate it. I want to see Championship Trophies and Rings... not Ping Pong Balls...
     
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  5. cdt

    cdt Oh My God! Staff Member

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    Believe me I want banners and jewelry but I also don't want to be a mediocre team with overpaid Free Agents and no young talent...ie Detroit or Philly
     
  6. dano_24_26

    dano_24_26 Sixth Man

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    Does anyone know the % if we end up with the worst record to receive the first pick. And so on...
     
  7. MYoung23

    MYoung23 12 Reasons to Post

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    As of 2008, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances

    250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
    199 combinations, 19.9% chance
    156 combinations, 15.6% chance
    119 combinations, 11.9% chance
    88 combinations, 8.8% chance
    63 combinations, 6.3% chance
    43 combinations, 4.3% chance
    28 combinations, 2.8% chance
    17 combinations, 1.7% chance
    11 combinations, 1.1% chance
    8 combinations, 0.8% chance
    7 combinations, 0.7% chance
    6 combinations, 0.6% chance
    5 combinations, 0.5% chance
     
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  8. ohiorulez

    ohiorulez Situational Stopper

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    i believe it is 25%
     
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  9. wuck

    wuck Hustling on the inside Staff Member

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    Even in a way, way down year, rabman can make the most out of tables. :chuckles:
     
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  10. rabman_gold

    rabman_gold Anti-Florida yet stuck here...

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    Well, I have nothing better to do....


    1. Basically, there are many combinations you can get to receive a certain spot in the lottery. The top team has 250 combinations. The lowest (the one with the best record in the lottery) has 5.
    2. All teams have a shot to get the first, second, or third overall picks every year.
    3. Only the first four have a shot at the 4th overall pick.
    4. The second also has a shot at the 5. The 3rd with the 6th. And the fourth with the 7th.
    5. The fourteenth team currently has a 98.2% chance of getting the 14th pick, while they only have a small shot at the other 3. They can't get anywhere else.

    That's what you need to know. As for what's relevant to us, we're either going to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd most likely. So, here's our chances:

    1. First team:
      1. 25% for 1st.
      2. 21.5% for 2nd.
      3. 17.8% for 3rd.
      4. 35.7% for 4th (oy).
    2. Second team:
      1. 19.9%
      2. 18.8%
      3. 17.1%
      4. 31.9%
      5. 31.9%
      6. 12.3%
    3. Third team:
      1. 15.6%
      2. 15.7%
      3. 15.6%
      4. 22.6%
      5. 26.5%
      6. 4%

    Hope that helps. It's still a crapshoot to get the first overall pick, that's why the top team doesn't always get it. Here's more for clarification: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
     
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  11. NarlCavs

    NarlCavs Gold Star Member

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    Looking right now at how this year's draft might be, it doesn't matter a ton to me if the Cavs don't get the #1 pick. I just at least want a top 3 pick since the talent level should be fairly even. That could change though depending on who of the underclassmen end up declaring.

    Talking lottery pick with more than half the season to go brings back memories.
     
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  12. Gordon Bombay

    Gordon Bombay In the Rotation

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    we need to corrupt caterers to issue some bad food to perspective kings and timberwolves opponents so they have an easier time of winning
     
  13. Gimme Some Mo

    Gimme Some Mo All-Star

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    If we win any of the next 3 games, this thread has to be locked and deleted. :chuckles:
     
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  14. 1B4IGO

    1B4IGO Long Distance Sniper

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    I agree. The talent in the top end of this draft is pretty much equal with the first three or four picks. I would love to see us pick up another first rounder, even if it is later though. I think the talent is pretty much on par from picks 15-30 also.
     
  15. Jezzar

    Jezzar Your own Euroleague Guru

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    We want the first pick if Irving is on board.

    Else, any of the top 3 would do.
     
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  16. Chris

    Chris Welcome to the Future

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    I swear, I had not one but TWO dreams that we got Irving last night.

    He's the guy I want.
     
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  17. neuronbob

    neuronbob Rookie

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    Thank you for this thread. I finally have something to look forward to this season. I understand though how the OP felt like he was dying inside to start this thread. I feel the same every time I watch a game.

    So as perverse as it sounds.....(gulp) LOSE CAVS LOSE! Get those ping-pong balls! GO IN THE TANK!

    :( *cry*
     
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  18. Pyro

    Pyro Banned

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    Wow, only a 25% chance if we have the worst record? Jesus christ. We're going to get New Jersey Net'ed.
     
  19. TheISHT

    TheISHT Gold Star Member

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    I would be estatic to get Kyrie and I'd be cool with Perry/Jared/Harrison.
     
  20. ohiorulez

    ohiorulez Situational Stopper

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    Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

    2nd team
    6. 12.3%


    3rd team
    6. 4%

    how does that work?
     
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