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The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread (2012 Playoffs and Ping Pong Balls)

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Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

Holy crap getting some bad deja vu...
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

rabman_gold said:
  1. 25% for 1st.
  2. 21.5% for 2nd.
  3. 17.8% for 3rd.
  4. 35.7% for 4th (oy).
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The 35.7% chance that we'll get the 4th pick with the worst record sounds bad, but only when compared to EACH of the other 3. Add up the first 3 and there's a 64.3% chance we WON'T pick 4th.

Pyro Kinesis said:
Wow, only a 25% chance if we have the worst record? Jesus christ. We're going to get New Jersey Net'ed.
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Again, the percentages are a little deceiving. The 25% sounds small, but every other team's individual chance is even worse than 25% (most of them significantly worse). So, every single lottery team could reasonably look at the odds and predict that they won't get the first pick. But someone has to get it, and at least we'd have more chances than any other individual team. It used to be even worse - before 1994, the team with the worst record only had a 16.67% chance to get the first pick.

You could also say we'd have a 46.5% chance of picking either first or second, which sounds a little more reasonable.

Anyway, getting the first pick in the draft the year after LeBron left would certainly be some of that "karma" he was talking about in his poor attempt to sound philosophical.
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

Going to be an agonizing wait for the draft :(
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

To further elaborate on the case in which we don't get the first pick..(again, assuming Irving does not come out)

I'm gonna do a mini draft simulation to show you guys how we are going to end up with Sullinger in each of the cases.

Let's say that Sacto gets to pick before us and we have the second pick. Bearing in mind that Sacto is an above average franchise in terms of finding talent in draft, its safe to say that they won't go with Sullinger as he's a shorter version of Cousins. That will leave them with Perry Jones, Terrence Jones and maybe Barnes if he plays better for the rest of this season. Since Perry Jones is the one with the highest ceiling here, I'd say they would go with him.

If we get to have Minnesota picking first... that is not a problem as they are stupid.

Then again, if we get to pick third and have Sacto and Minnesota picking before us, I'll say that I see both of the Jones' being off the board, leaving us with Sullinger.

If we get to pick third and have Sacto and Washington picking before us, that might cause a problem as Washington would probably go with Sullinger, considering that Blatche did not work very well for them.

I'm willing to bet large amounts of money on Minnesota picking Terrence Jones if he's on board. I mean, it makes sense. They like to collect wings and have a logjam of them and Terrence Jones is a wing. Simple, really. :chuckles:

Thus, if Irving does not come out, we are very likely to end up with Sullinger if we don't get to pick first. If we do pick first though, I see us coming up with Perry Jones. Knowing that we will have a 75% chance to not pick first, its safe to say that Sullinger will be the one for us. That leaves no room for Hickson. We need to go ahead and flip him for a pick in the 2012 draft before the rest of the league realize that he's actually dumber than Gooden.
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

Don't want Sullinger. Not athletic, gets his shot blocked a ton at the collegiate level, just doesn't scream All Star to me. Could be wrong.
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

cmstophe said:
Don't want Sullinger. Not athletic, gets his shot blocked a ton at the collegiate level, just doesn't scream All Star to me. Could be wrong.
Click to expand...

Wasn't advocating Sullinger at all. His ceiling is Elton Brand before injury. Very good but nothing special.

I'd rather take the flier on Perry Jones. He has some bust potential but if he pans out, he'll be a star for the next 15 years.
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

Sacramento 93
New York 83

Kings Win! Kings Win!




Fucking Idiots.
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

After Kyle Irving, you better hope there's some god given talent we can draft in the first 3-4 positions, 'cause a lottery is still just what it is: A Lottery. Anyways, bumped it up. Just think that 17 Cavs Losses/Spurs Wins makes it impossible to get the top overall seed in the playoffs? Or 35 Losses/Opponent Wins makes us ineligible for the PLAYOFFS?!
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

Since the draft lottery was put into effect 9 years ago, only 2 teams have gotten the #1 pick in those 9 draft lotto's... So while the system is designed for the #1 team to get the most chance to get the #1 pick, it doesn't guarantee the team with the most chance of getting the #1 the #1 pick...

If Kyrie Irving doesn't come out, it really doesn't matter where we are in the top-5 or top-3... if does come out, we better get the #1 or I'll flip...
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

Smooth said:
Since the draft lottery was put into effect 9 years ago, only 2 teams have gotten the #1 pick in those 9 draft lotto's... So while the system is designed for the #1 team to get the most chance to get the #1 pick, it doesn't guarantee the team with the most chance of getting the #1 the #1 pick...

If Kyrie Irving doesn't come out, it really doesn't matter where we are in the top-5 or top-3... if does come out, we better get the #1 or I'll flip...
Click to expand...

This. Think about it this way- if we have worst record, it is a 75% chance another team will get that top draft pick.
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

Here we go again... *grabs for pistol, aims it in mouth*
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

We need one of the major sport teams to get good fast ,this is depressing.
 
Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread for Most Ping Pong Balls in May 2011.

MYoung23 said:
As of 2008, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances

250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
199 combinations, 19.9% chance
156 combinations, 15.6% chance
119 combinations, 11.9% chance
88 combinations, 8.8% chance
63 combinations, 6.3% chance
43 combinations, 4.3% chance
28 combinations, 2.8% chance
17 combinations, 1.7% chance
11 combinations, 1.1% chance
8 combinations, 0.8% chance
7 combinations, 0.7% chance
6 combinations, 0.6% chance
5 combinations, 0.5% chance
Click to expand...

Can you explain the combinations?

Is it more advanced than just pulling a single ping pong ball out for each team?
 
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