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The ISIS offensive in Iraq

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Continue bombing areas that kill the innocent, it won't matter how many dangerous losers you kill today, you're not preventing the creation of dangerous losers tomorrow. You're proving their arcane, mystical movement.

The same logic would have applied to Germany and Japan in WWII, both of which had a somewhat mystical component to their ideology: "don't do anything that might kill civilians, or else you'll make them all really mad and they'll fight forever." But it didn't work out that way. We just killed so many of them that the rest got tired of fighting.

Same thing here. You can't fight a war and guarantee no civilian casualties. So either you fight and try to minimize civilian casualties, or you don't bother fighting at all. In which case, you're conceding them victory. The former seems a much more logical course of action to me.

I'd also point out that, in practice, the "you're just recruiting more terrorists" theory has always had its limits. The terrorists themselves have absolutely brutalized the populations in the areas they control in Iraq. They also kicked the shit out of the Iraqi Army. So where are the hordes of angry Iraqis, armed with righteousness and an AK, rising up to defeat ISIS? Because that's the same population that supposedly would be adding to the terrorists if we inadvertently killed some of them.

I think most real people -- cutting across religion, culture, etc., simply want to be left alone, and most people who otherwise aren't inclined to fight generally aren't going to pick up weapons simply because someone they loved was killed inadvertently.

Who you may get picking up weapons are some fence-sitters who were already leaning towards fighting anyway. But that's not most people.
 
The same logic would have applied to Germany and Japan in WWII, both of which had a somewhat mystical component to their ideology: "don't do anything that might kill civilians, or else you'll make them all really mad and they'll fight forever." But it didn't work out that way. We just killed so many of them that the rest got tired of fighting.

Same thing here. You can't fight a war and guarantee no civilian casualties. So either you fight and try to minimize civilian casualties, or you don't bother fighting at all. In which case, you're conceding them victory. The former seems a much more logical course of action to me.

I'd also point out that, in practice, the "you're just recruiting more terrorists" theory has always had its limits. The terrorists themselves have absolutely brutalized the populations in the areas they control in Iraq. They also kicked the shit out of the Iraqi Army. So where are the hordes of angry Iraqis, armed with righteousness and an AK, rising up to defeat ISIS? Because that's the same population that supposedly would be adding to the terrorists if we inadvertently killed some of them.

I think most real people -- cutting across religion, culture, etc., simply want to be left alone, and most people who otherwise aren't inclined to fight generally aren't going to pick up weapons simply because someone they loved was killed inadvertently.

Who you may get picking up weapons are some fence-sitters who were already leaning towards fighting anyway. But that's not most people.

You're comparing 2 completely different era's and severely underestimating the power of propaganda in a neolithic region. Never said you can guarantee no civilian casualties, but there's an immense hole between that and no fucking regard. IS says think like us or we will kill you. It's entirely different than Al Quaeda. The middle east hates them - the last thing you want to do is turn those anti IS citizens into pro's. JMO.

I've said it before but fighting Al Quaeda, in their minds, was literally a cosmic battle of good vs evil. For as unhinged as they were, at least they fought for a reason, a purpose. This? This isn't anything like that. They're killing just because.
 
I agree with you Damage but what do you mean al Qaeda was fighting for a reason at least and ISIS is killing just because? (Or did I misunderstand and you aren't comparing the two?)

Just like al Qaeda, in their mind, ISIS is fighting a righteous war and their methods are brutal but justified. Obviously we know that they aren't and they are actually deranged extremists...but so is al Qaeda. Al Qaeda did a lot of the same things ISIS does, ie videotape horrific executions of innocent people. Not to mention they perpetrated an attack that murdered over 3000 innocent Americans. I'm not saying ISIS isn't worse than al Qaeda, I just think they're both human scum and ISIS is just worse human scum (I'm sure you agree with that) but both factions seem to believe they are righteous and justified.
 
The thing about homeless people is that they don't reproduce at a very high rate.

The key that a lot of people miss is that if you kill the head, the body will follow. So if you can kill the dangerous losers today, you're preventing them from creating the dangerous losers of tomorrow.

I wouldn't exhaust resources on the people that don't breed. Find the people that breed the most and then raise dangerous kids. You'll find them at Wal-Mart during working hours when everyone else is being productive.

People like ISIS and other terrorists are an immediate threat as well, so they're even more crucial to destroy.

Homeless people might not, but that wasn't the point. The fact she left all the stuff for the kids pissed me off and shows me she was probably an addict. Again kill the damn addicts, they reproduce.


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You're comparing 2 completely different era's and severely underestimating the power of propaganda in a neolithic region.

And I think you underestimate the basic humanity of the majority of people. I don't think the power of propaganda was much less in Nazi Germany or in Imperial Japan. I think the majority of people generally want to be left alone, and those truly extreme ideologies such as those followed by dedicated Nazis, ISIL, and Al Qaeda will always be limited to a minority. There are only so many crazy people willing to martyr themselves or brutally butcher others.

That's also why I pointed to what has actually happened in Iraq itself even in our own experience. The ROI were incredibly strict when we first started fighting in Iraq. The enemy would openly use mosques for snipers, etc., and we essentially let them get away with it because of the fear that as soon as we started damaging mosques, we'd radicalize the whole population and be faced with a mass uprising. But when the ROI were adjusted, and we started shooting back, that didn't happen. People were more rational than we had assumed.

Never said you can guarantee no civilian casualties, but there's an immense hole between that and no fucking regard.

Sure, but so what? "No fucking regard" isn't relevant, except to the extent AQ or ISIS has no regard for civilian life.

IS says think like us or we will kill you. It's entirely different than Al Quaeda.

Not really. It's somewhat more extreme, but the ideology itself is very similar. Neither of them has respect for other religions -- remember the Al Qaeda-allied Taliban dynamiting the Buddha statues in Afghanistan?

The middle east hates them - the last thing you want to do is turn those anti IS citizens into pro's.

That's where we differ -- I don't think it is possible to turn all those anti IS citizens into pro IS radicals. Certainly fighting against ISIS won't do that.

Just look at how things were going when the U.S. had absolutely no involvement at all. ISIS grew from a small part of the Syrian opposition to what we see today. They massively expanded their membership and organization, grabbed huge swathes of territory, routed the Iraqi Army, were beating up the Kurds, and had seized major cities, oil fields, banks, and huge amounts of weapons. It's growth was exponential, and incredibly rapid. And all that expansion of ISIS power and influence happened without a single U.S. boogeyman in the picture. We got involved, and the Kurds have pushed back and recovered that dam, and that Iraqi army has stiffened. I don't see a shred of evidence that our assistance to forces that have resisted ISIS has strengthened ISIS. The evidence all seems to the contrary.

The dirty little secret of the jihadis (and of most people) is that they prefer to be on the side that is winning. The fastest way for ISIS to grow is to have military successes, because that is what is going to attract new recruits. It's when the tide seems to turn against such groups that they find it more difficult to recruit, and are essentially limited to recruiting the tiny minority with a true deathwish.. That's been true historically in that region of the world for a very long time -- T.E. Lawrence's book made that clear.

I've said it before but fighting Al Quaeda, in their minds, was literally a cosmic battle of good vs evil. For as unhinged as they were, at least they fought for a reason, a purpose. This? This isn't anything like that. They're killing just because.

No, they're killing for the same reasons. It's just that they're even more insanely dogmatic about religious purity.
 
So can we keep the region stabilized with airstrikes and Spec Forces or do we need ground troops? How long do we stay this time? If the Iraqis fail after we leave again, do we just deploy all these servicemen for another round of this shit? As you know our brothers and sisters will be the ones in harm's way.
 
Rand Paul: ‘I Am Not an Isolationist’
11:56 AM ET

rand-paul1.jpg

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. listens he is introduced to speak by Iowa Republican congressional candidate Rod Blum, left, during a meeting with local Republicans, Aug. 5, 2014, in Hiawatha, Iowa.Charlie Neibergall—AP
If I had been in President Obama's shoes, I would have acted more decisively and strongly against ISIS

Some pundits are surprised that I support destroying the Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) militarily. They shouldn’t be. I’ve said since I began public life that I am not an isolationist, nor am I an interventionist. I look at the world, and consider war, realistically and constitutionally.

I still see war as the last resort. But I agree with Reagan’s idea that no country should mistake U.S. reluctance for war for a lack of resolve.

As Commander-in-Chief, I would not allow our enemies to kill our citizens or our ambassadors. “Peace through Strength” only works if you have and show strength.

Our recent foreign policy has allowed radical jihadists to proliferate. Today, there are more terrorists groups than there were before 9/11, most notably ISIS. After all the sacrifice in Afghanistan and Iraq, why do we find ourselves in a more dangerous world?

And why, after six years, does President Obama lack a strategy to deal with threats like ISIS?

This administration’s dereliction of duty has both sins of action and inaction, which is what happens when you are flailing around wildly, without careful strategic thinking.

And while my predisposition is to less intervention, I do support intervention when our vital interests are threatened.

If I had been in President Obama’s shoes, I would have acted more decisively and strongly against ISIS. I would have called Congress back into session—even during recess.

This is what President Obama should have done. He should have been prepared with a strategic vision, a plan for victory and extricating ourselves. He should have asked for authorization for military action and would have, no doubt, received it.

Once we have decided that we have an enemy that requires destruction, we must have a comprehensive strategy—a realistic policy applying military power and skillful diplomacy to protect our national interests.

The immediate challenge is to define the national interest to determine the form of intervention we might pursue. I was repeatedly asked if I supported airstrikes. I do—if it makes sense as part of a larger strategy.

There’s no point in taking military action just for the sake of it, something Washington leaders can’t seem to understand. America has an interest in protecting more than 5,000 personnel serving at the largest American embassy in the world in northern Iraq. I am also persuaded by the plight of massacred Christians and Muslim minorities.

The long-term challenge is debilitating and ultimately eradicating a strong and growing ISIS, whose growth poses a significant terrorist threat to U.S. allies and enemies in the region, Europe, and our homeland.

The military means to achieve these goals include airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria. Such airstrikes are the best way to suppress ISIS’s operational strength and allow allies such as the Kurds to regain a military advantage.

We should arm and aid capable and allied Kurdish fighters whose territory includes areas now under siege by the ISIS.

Since Syrian jihadists are also a threat to Israel, we should help reinforce Israel’s Iron Dome protection against missiles.

We must also secure our own borders and immigration policy from ISIS infiltration. Our border is porous, and the administration, rather than acting to protect it, instead ponders unconstitutional executive action, legalizing millions of illegal immigrants.

Our immigration system, especially the administration of student visas, requires a full-scale examination. Recently, it was estimated that as many as 6,000 possibly dangerous foreign students are unaccounted for. This is inexcusable over a decade after we were attacked on 9/11 by hijackers including one Saudi student who overstayed his student visa.

We should revoke passports from any Americans or dual citizens who are fighting with ISIS.

Important to the long-term stability in the region is the reengagement diplomatically with allies in the region and in Europe to recognize the shared nature of the threat of Radical Islam and the growing influence of jihadists. That is what will make this a comprehensive strategy.

ISIS is a global threat; we should treat it accordingly and build a coalition of nations who are also threatened by the rise of the Islamic State. Important partners such as Turkey, a NATO ally, Israel, and Jordan face an immediate threat, and unchecked growth endangers Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Gulf countries such as Qatar, and even Europe. Several potential partners—notably, the Turks, Qataris, and Saudis—have been reckless in their financial support of ISIS, which must cease immediately.

This is one set of principles. Any strategy, though, should be presented to the American people through Congress. If war is necessary, we should act as a nation. We should do so properly and constitutionally and with a real strategy and a plan for both victory and exit.

To develop a realistic strategy, we need to understand why the threat of ISIS exists. Jihadist Islam is festering in the region. But in order for it to grow, prosper, and conquer, it needs chaos.

Three years after President Obama waged war in Libya without Congressional approval, Libya is a sanctuary and safe haven for training and arms for terrorists from Northern Africa to Syria. Our deserted Embassy in Tripoli is controlled by militants. Jihadists today swim in our embassy pool.

Syria, likewise, has become a jihadist wonderland. In Syria, Obama’s plan just one year ago—and apparently Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s desire—was to aid rebels against Assad, despite the fact that many of these groups are al-Qaeda- and ISIS-affiliated. Until we acknowledge that arming the Islamic rebels in Syria allowed ISIS a safe haven, no amount of military might will extricate us from a flawed foreign policy.

Unfortunately, Obama’s decisions—from disengaging diplomatically in Iraq and the region and fomenting chaos in Libya and Syria—leave few good options. A more realistic and effective foreign policy would protect the vital interests of the nation without the unrealistic notion of nation-building.

Paul is the junior U.S. Senator for Kentucky.
 
So can we keep the region stabilized with airstrikes and Spec Forces or do we need ground troops?

Given the "I'm not there so I can't say for certain" caveat, based on my knowledge/experience, we can very probably prevent additional ISIS expansion if we are willing to fly ground support and interdiction missions as long as we have U.S. forward air controllers to direct the strikes. It's much easier for air support to break up/disrupt an attacking force than it is to defeat a defending force because attackers are necessarily going to be more concentrated and more exposed. The other truism is that it is a huge boost to the morale of ground troops to have friendly air support. We've seen the Kurds fight much more effectively when they have it, and that's going to apply to the Iraqi army as well. The flip side is that the lack of air support makes it much easier for there to be a mass bug-out/panic.

So I think we can stop most future offensives. Whether that level of U.S. support is enough to enable the Kurds and Iraqis to actually roll back ISIS is a different question that only time can answer.

How long do we stay this time? If the Iraqis fail after we leave again, do we just deploy all these servicemen for another round of this shit? As you know our brothers and sisters will be the ones in harm's way.

Well, we've still got ground troops in South Korea, Japan, and Germany for regional stability. I'm not advocating this, but I don't think a long-term U.S. presence in the form of an airbase would necessarily be a bad thing. It's the best way to get combat power where needed quickly, while leaving the vast majority of the ground fighting to allies. I'd be extremely hesitant as an American citizen to send ground combat units (other than troops to protect the base and Spec Ops types who are needed in case pilots get shot down anyway) back to that region absent...well, I can't really think of anything.
 
Rand working hard to be prez
 
You know things are getting bad when Iran and the US are working together.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29079052

Iran 'backs US military contacts' to fight Islamic State

Iran's Supreme Leader has approved co-operation with the US as part of the fight against Islamic State in northern Iraq, sources have told BBC Persian.

Ayatollah Khamenei has authorised his top commander to co-ordinate military operations with the US, Iraqi and Kurdish forces, sources in Tehran say.

Shia Iran regards the extremist Sunni Islamic State (IS) group, which views Shias as heretics, as a serious threat.

Iran has traditionally opposed US involvement in Iraq, an Iranian ally.

However last month US air strikes helped Iranian-backed Shia militia and Kurdish forces break a two-month siege by Islamic State (IS) of the Shia town of Amerli.

IS has taken over swathes of northern and western Iraq and eastern Syria in recent months.

US forces began carrying out air strikes on IS positions in August after they took over several cities in northern Iraq.

Ayatollah Khamenei has previously objected to outside "interference" - including by the US - in Iraq.

Now, Iran seems to have taken steps to work closer with the United States, says BBC Persian's Kasra Naji.

Sources say Ayatollah Khamenei has sanctioned Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds force - the extraterritorial arm of the Revolutionary Guards - to work with forces fighting IS, including the US.

Gen Soleimani has been active in the past few months in strengthening the defences of Baghdad with the help of Iraqi Shia militias.

His picture has appeared on the internet showing him in northern Iraq around the time of the breaking of the siege of Amerli - an indication that this co-operation may have already started.

Meanwhile, Nato leaders meeting at a summit in Wales say they want to form a military coalition to take on IS.

"We need to attack them in ways that prevent them from taking over territory, to bolster the Iraqi security forces and others in the region who are prepared to take them on, without committing troops of our own," Reuters news agency quotes US Secretary of State John Kerry as saying.

"Obviously I think that's a red line for everybody here: No boots on the ground," he said.

The brutality of IS - including mass killings and abductions of members of religious and ethnic minorities, as well as the beheadings of soldiers and journalists - has sparked outrage across the world.

Last month Iraqi and Kurdish forces pushed IS back from parts of northern Iraq, but the group still controls what it has declared as a caliphate stretching across Syria and Iraq.
 
Iraq as a duty station would suck major ass.

No kidding. But AF bases generally are nicer than Army/Marine bases, and we've had bases in other Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar) that aren't too bad. I imagine most of the troops there would be on one year tours max, with a relatively small number on longer tours.

The other options all seem worse. Nobody wants to have large numbers of U.S. ground forces there, and not having any U.S. presence at all likely would only encourage the enemy and demoralize allied forces. It just seems to me that the most efficient solution is limiting our involvement to air assets and the necessary supporting elements.
 
I hope like hell that Hillary Clinton doesn't win.. I am tired of limp-wristed approach to being the Commander in Chief.
 
I hope like hell that Hillary Clinton doesn't win.. I am tired of limp-wristed approach to being the Commander in Chief.

I don't worry about her being "weak" -- I just worry about her being wrong, and too beholden to short-term public opinion. She opposed the surge -- which worked -- and voted in favor of a couple of resolutions requiring that all U.S. troops withdraw from Iraq by March 2008, and not wanting any bases in Iraq. As poorly as Iraqi security forces performed recently, it would have been exponentially worse if that advice had been followed. And as Secretary of State, while she had the benefit of a fawning media that was anointing her as a fantastic SoS even though she really wasn't doing anything, the way the world has turned since she took office kind of killed that narrative.

Always thought one of the more interesting "tells" about Obama's foreign policy worldview was when he stated his belief that the Surge would actually make thinks worse. Explains perfectly why he did absolutely nothing while ISIS/ISIL were surging.

If someone really wanted a Democrat female who'd be a decent President, it's Feinstein. Intellectually honest compared to many politicians, and far more accomplished and capable than Hilary.
 

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