The Matt Flynn thread

[DDJ7777]

Mel Kiper Jr. ‏ @MelKiperESPN

The Browns now have to have their sights set on Matt Flynn. But they have to hope Manning ends up in Miami or the Dolphins would need Flynn.

I like how if the Dolphins need Flynn it means the Browns automatically lose. It's awesome being the red headed step child of the NFL. :chuckles:

 

[bcort]

This deserves a re-post..

If there's any person worth listening to talk about draft prospects or NFL players in general, it's Cosell... Especially QBs... There's no one better at evaluating players..

Unbelievable wealth of knowledge...

Just thought I'd say that...

It's good information, sure. I wonder how much of Flynn's ability to play translate to a new team. I don't think Shurmur helped Colt at all last season, and I'm not sure if he would be able to help Flynn, either. Could Flynn be a good QB in the league? I'd say yes, but I think it's the coaches responsibility to put him into a situation where he could maximize his abilities, much like Colt.

Many fans probably won't like this, but I don't think we should be going after any QB in either free agency or the draft.

 

[The Hill]

Many fans probably won't like this, but I don't think we should be going after any QB in either free agency or the draft.

I agree 100 percent.

 

[BooyaCS]

I agree 100 percent.

Welcome to another 4-12 season...

 

[bcort]

Welcome to another 4-12 season...

I'd rather have a 4-12 season with other pieces in place than a 4-12 season with a pick or money wasted on a QB that won't do us any better..

 

[Sly]

I do not understand why people are worried about the money. We're not using that money. We're not going to use that money. It's just going to be a arbitrary figure that shows how much less we spent than other teams. We're not going to sign a bunch of FA's. It's not going to happen. You either fill it up with a QB, or you don't use it at all. That's our option. It doesn't burden the team in any way by signing him.

If Flynn is the real deal, then no worries about what Randy spent. If he's not, then cut him and no worries about what Randy spent. Who here want's to spend a top pick on a developmental QB, or bring in a Jason Campbell type retread and trot them out in the opener? Not a lot of other options here. You can't just assume that not going after a QB this year means next year we get somebody awesome. You either do what the 'Skins did, or you do what the Bengals did and hope someone falls to you. We didn't get Luck or Griffin in this draft after sucking our way to an abysmal record. You're retarding the development of the entire offense, and everyone you draft or sign on offense by not having a QB. I'm not okay with not improving at the QB position.

 

[Soda]

Looks like we're all going to see if Colt is "Steve Young" or "Drew Brees" after all. If they want Flynn, fine, but don't blow your load on him and give $50 mil. I don't like the Weeden option, so I honestly think we end up with a Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson type guy.

 

[The Hill]

Looks like we're all going to see if Colt is "Steve Young" or "Drew Brees" after all. If they want Flynn, fine, but don't blow your load on him and give $50 mil. I don't like the Weeden option, so I honestly think we end up with a Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson type guy.

This is how I feel about it. If we were to get Flynn for a modest price, then I am for it. But I just don't think he is going to be worth the contract people seem to think he will command. If we can front-load the contract and see if he's for real, that would be fine with me.

 

[speedyd718]

I'd like to Flynn, Kolb, or another west coast guy come in and if nothing else challenge Colt. I also think a QB that "knows" the offense helps Shurmur and friends open the playbook.

 

[Phills14]

Rumors were 40-50 mil for Flynn when people thought Wash/Mia/Cle were bidding for him. Now it will be Cle and possibly Sea. I'll be surprised if he gets that much. Also curious to see how it will be structured.

 

[JMcCurry08]

There isnt a cap number yet, could there be a cap free season

 

[BooyaCS]

Looks like we're all going to see if Colt is "Steve Young" or "Drew Brees" after all. If they want Flynn, fine, but don't blow your load on him and give $50 mil. I don't like the Weeden option, so I honestly think we end up with a Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson type guy.

Kirk Cousins is no better than McCoy and Russell Wilson is Seneca Wallace 2.0. If you want a "project" QB give me Osweiler

 

[Soda]

Kirk Cousins is no better than McCoy and Russell Wilson is Seneca Wallace 2.0. If you want a "project" QB give me Osweiler

Works for me. I was just pointing out the ballpark.

 

[Cratylus]

Yes, but another 4-12 season nets the Browns another not-high-enough pick in the 2013 NFL Draft... which will allow them to trade down YET AGAIN and acquire even more mediocre talent so they can fire H & H and then move on to the next shitty-ass regime who will promise greatness if we are patient and who will instead deliver even more years of absolute ineptitude.

Cleveland Browns Football - We Make the Cleveland Indians Look GOOD.

 

[*L-Train*]

Warning signs on Matt Flynn

The original poster child for the biggest bust as a free-agent quarterback was Scott Mitchell.

For those not familiar with Mitchell, he was the hottest free agent in the league after the 1993 season, in part because of how well he played while filling in for an injured Dan Marino.

In only his second career start, Mitchell dominated a Kansas City Chiefs club that eventually made it to the AFC Championship Game. His stat line of 22 completions in 33 attempts for 344 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against one of the best teams in the league showed the kind of upside he might have.

The bad news for the Detroit Lions was that Mitchell was nowhere near as good as that game would indicate. The Lions signed him to a three-year, $11 million contract that was quite large for the time, and Mitchell rewarded them with a 27-30 mark in four seasons as their starter. His mediocre performance was so painfully memorable that Mitchell is often mentioned among the worst free-agent signings ever.

There have been some strong cases over the years for players to top Mitchell on this list, but after taking a closer look at the case of Matt Flynn -- this year's highest-profile free-agent quarterback and one who has been rumored to several teams in a potentially big deal -- it's clear all of the building blocks are in place to potentially vault him over Mitchell on the list of worst free-agent quarterback signings ever.

It starts with the most valuable part of the argument in praise of Flynn: his strong performance in a very brief audition. The highlight was against the Detroit Lions in Week 17, a game in which he set Green Bay single-game records for most passing yards and touchdown passes.

As remarkable as those numbers are, it's just as important to note that Flynn went 13-for-17 for 258 yards and four touchdowns on passes thrown at Alphonso Smith, Chris Harris and Chris Houston.

Context matters. Smith is so bad in coverage that Denver gave up on him after one season, despite him being their top second-round pick in the 2009 NFL draft. Harris' history is no better, as his mediocre skills are a big part of why the Lions were his third NFL team in three years. While Houston has a much stronger metric history than those two, he was slowed by an injury that didn't show up until a few days before the Green Bay game.

In other words, the correct way to view Flynn's record-setting game is to say that it proves he can post dominant numbers if he is surrounded by very talented pass-catchers and faces a weak and injury-riddled secondary at home.

Instead of concentrating so heavily on Flynn's game against the Lions, why not take a closer look at his 2010 season? He was asked to fill in for an injured Aaron Rodgers in the second half of a game at Detroit and then started a game at New England.

Flynn's overall numbers in those games were so-so: 39-for-63 for 428 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. That equates to an 84.6 passer rating, or slightly above the 82.2 league average for that season (according to pro-football-reference.com).

But check out Flynn's metrics by route depth in those contests:

Matt Flynn's 2010 season stats vs. Detroit, New England
Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA Bdec Bdec %
Short (1-10 yards) 33 41 262 2 1 2 4 6.2 0 0.0%
Medium (11-19 yards) 4 9 68 0 1 0 0 7.6 1 11.1%
Deep (20-29 yards) 2 6 98 1 0 0 0 16.3 1 16.7%
Bomb (30+ yards) 0 3 0 0 0 1 5 1.3 1 25.0%
Other (throwaways, etc.) 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0%
Total 39 63 428 3 2 3 9 6.5 3 4.5%
Vertical (11+ yards) 6 18 166 1 1 1 5 9.0 3 15.8%
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 2 9 98 1 0 1 5 10.3 2 20.0%

The yards per attempt (YPA) totals are mediocre or worse at nearly every depth level.

Even more disturbing is the 4.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR). BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover or a near turnover. So a dropped interception is considered a bad decision, not merely an incomplete pass. For perspective, a 2 percent BDR is considered the mark of excellence for a vertical passer.

Rodgers has posted phenomenal BDR totals ranging from 1.1 to 1.7 percent the past two seasons. However, during his toughest tests, Flynn was making risky mental errors anywhere from two to four times as often as Rodgers.

If all of the above isn't enough to make a team take a step back before giving Flynn a big contract, one should also consider the potential alternatives.

Two viable options are Jason Campbell and Kyle Orton. These quarterbacks are older than Flynn, and they have longer track records of above-average performances and would cost a whole lot less to acquire.

A team should also consider that the collegiate ranks are now producing more pro-ready quarterbacks than maybe at any time in collegiate football history.

For proof, just look at some of the quarterbacks who have been drafted over the past four years: Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.

That's 10 starting-caliber quarterbacks in four drafts, a number that will grow even higher with this year's crop of draftees that includes elite prospects such as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill and second-tier talents such as Brock Osweiler, Kellen Moore and Brandon Weeden. And next year's draft isn't exactly looking like slim pickings, either, as Matt Barkley, Landry Jones and Tyler Wilson all look to have very good chances of being first-round selections.

Maybe the best way to sum all of this up is by noting something famed general manager Ernie Accorsi recently said in an interview with Colin Cowherd.

When it comes to acquiring a quarterback, Accorsi told Cowherd that no price was too high to pay if the quarterback turned out to be great, but if he turned out to be a bust a move of that nature could set the franchise back 5-7 years.

Flynn may end up in the great category, but the odds against it are strong. That means a huge contract such as the one he is quite likely to command is simply too much a risk to take. If a team does take that chance, it could be setting up the last block in giving Flynn a chance to top Mitchell on the all-time free-agent quarterback bust list.

KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN

like i said i don't like at all what i'm reading and hearing about Flynn