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Tracking the Cavs: '14-'15 Metrics Watch

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Why Cavs can still win East title
Predictive real plus-minus reveals glimmer of hope for disappointing Cleveland

By Steve Ilardi | Special to ESPN.com

It wasn't supposed to go like this.

The Cleveland Cavaliers -- anointed by pundits and oddsmakers alike as preseason favorites to win the Eastern Conference -- are a team in disarray.

And it's not just the 20-20 record, the negative point differential, the incessant lineup churn. It's also the relentless saga-cum-soap-opera of rookie coach David Blatt.

Is LeBron James overriding Blatt's play calls? Did Blatt just say Kevin Love is not a max player? Are assistant coaches really calling timeouts behind the head coach's back? And why are Blatt's players giving such inconsistent effort? Has he lost the team already?

And yet -- despite all the failings and drama -- the Cavaliers still might be the best team in the East heading into the playoffs.

How is that possible?

Forecasting with predictive RPM

The Cavaliers' case can perhaps best be made by means of the metric -- real plus-minus (RPM)-- that allows us to estimate the true plus-minus impact of each player on both offense and defense. In addition to the basic RPM stats that appear at ESPN.com, Jeremias Engelmann and I also generate a related metric, Predictive RPM, that builds on data from prior seasons to give an even more accurate forecast of how each player is most likely to perform in the immediate future.

Using Predictive RPM, we can thus get a better sense of how the playoff races and postseason might shape up.

Based on each Cavalier's projected real plus-minus (RPM) impact and postseason playing time allocation -- assuming the integration of the Cavs' three newly acquired players into the rotation and reasonable health for everyone except Anderson Varejao, who is out for the season with a torn Achilles -- Cleveland projects to be very good.

per-100.png


As shown, Cleveland projects to have an overall net efficiency of plus-7.09 points per 100 possessions -- with an elite offense (plus-7.48) and a mediocre defense (minus-0.39) -- when using a somewhat tightened playoff roster.

Here's how their roster compares with that of other Eastern Conference contenders, based on similar RPM-based lineup analyses:

projected-efficiency.png


Despite their difficult start, the Cavs rate slightly better in our RPM-based projections than any other team in the Eastern Conference.

That doesn't mean, of course, that Cleveland is actually favored to win any of its potential playoff matchups, since the Cavs would likely be playing without home-court advantage (typically worth more than three points per game) due to their poor start.

But our analysis does suggest, at the very least, that Cleveland has the requisite talent -- when healthy and playing to its potential -- to compete with any other team in the East.

Playing under their potential?

Yes, the Cavs have often seemed to be playing in "chill mode" this season, with truly lackluster effort on the defensive side of the ball, where the team's efficiency now ranks a dismal 25th in the NBA. And yes, Blatt has sometimes seemed indifferent to coaching tweaks that might help Love regain his superstar impact. (His RPM has dropped nearly three full points since joining the Cavs.)

For example, see if you can spot the common denominator in Love's most efficient four-man lineups so far this season (courtesy NBA.com/stats; minimum 50 minutes played):

man-5-lineups.png


Clearly, the Cavs have often played extremely well -- especially on the defensive end -- when Love has been paired in the frontcourt with Tristan Thompson, whose athletic interior presence helps offset some of Love's defensive limitations. And how many combined minutes did any of the above Love-Thompson lineups play during the team's dispiriting loss to the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday? Six.

Again, according to RPM, the Cavs have the talent to compete favorably with any team in the East. The question is whether they can play up to their potential.

Meanwhile, in the West

OK, there's another important question: How would the Cavs fare against the best teams in the West? Well, the league-leading Golden State Warriors rate a staggering eight points per 100 possessions better than the Cavs in the same RPM-based analyses -- a prohibitively large advantage -- and the other Western elites would also be heavily favored in any hypothetical NBA Finals matchup against LeBron & Co.

So, while Cleveland still has the dark horse potential to contend for the Eastern Conference crown this postseason, their chances of winning an NBA championship appear remote.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12172518/cleveland-cavaliers-contenders-east
 
The ship is righted!

This was a really interesting sample of 15 games because it encompasses both our full winning streak and our full losing streak.

Our offensive efficiency has skyrocketed and our defense has vastly improved. If we keep this pace up for about two more weeks, the chart is gonna be fascinating.

Also, on the "year as a whole" picture, just these last 4 games or so bumped us up a full spot in both overall Offense and Defense Efficiency.
 
Wow, you can really see the effect now.

This week's sample includes the last 5 games of our losing streak, and all 10 games of our winning streak. Net rating is fantastic, and we had the 4th best offense in the league over that span, even with those turd games in there.

As for the year as a whole, our play over the last week has climbed us up one spot in Off Rating, and two whole spots in Def Rating. Nice work Cavs.
 
Probably the most interesting update of all so far.

This sample of 15 games includes the entire 15 games that Lebron has now been back, starting with the game in PHX.

As you can see, that's us just 0.1 shy of the best mark in the NBA over this stretch! That's Golden State who just barely squeaked above us.

And, our defense almost matched our previous best defensive stretch of the year. Over these 15 games, we sit squarely in the middle of the pack on defense.

More importantly, our net rating was the second best in the league as well, again just barely behind the Warriors and ahead of the Hawks.

As for the year on the whole, we stayed planted as the 6th best offense on the year, while we climbed up a spot to #23 on defense.

Maybe the most surprising development (or not) is the steady decline of Love's usage.
 
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Charts are updated. First time all season that we have officially had the best Offensive Rating in the league over this stretch. Also, we have the second best Net Rating behind GSW by just a fraction, with a big gap between us and Atlanta in 3rd place.

Also, this stretch of 15 games is also our best defensive stretch of the season, with our lowest Def Rating of 101. That was good enough for 12th in the league over that stretch.

Nothing moved the needle on our Season As A Whole numbers. Still 6th best offense in the league, 23rd best defense.
 
Another week, and once again we have the best offense in the NBA over the last 15 games, and the 5th best defense in that same stretch.

Lebron's usage continues to skyrocket, Love's continues to drop. Although Love's impact and output has really improved recently, his decreased usage tells me he must be getting more efficient with his play. Which is awesome.

Also, we are almost out of the bottom 10 defenses on the season as a whole, and have jumped into the top 5 offenses on the year.

Fully Operational Death Star.
 
Updated the charts again.

Third straight week as the best offense in the NBA.

Defense slipped a little overall, but still really solid.

Interestingly enough, the overall league OFF RTG numbers dipped, and the DEF RTG numbers raised. So games have been a lot tighter overall it would seem.

On the year as a whole, we are still the 5th best offense and are officially a middle of the pack defensive team! 19th overall!
 
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/paceFactor/order/true

Cavs play at the 8th slowest pace in the league. We should definitely be playing a more up tempo game with guys like Lebron and Kyrie who are excellent in running and finishing on the break.

It may be a bit odd that we're playing at a slow pace with guys like LeBron, Kyrie and Love.
But I could care less as long as the team feels comfortable about it and plays successful basketball (which we do).

Good thing is: It shows that a slow pace probably won't become an issue for us in the po's, where you have to able to execute "slow" half court offensive sets.
 
It may be a bit odd that we're playing at a slow pace with guys like LeBron, Kyrie and Love.
But I could care less as long as the team feels comfortable about it and plays successful basketball (which we do).

Good thing is: It shows that a slow pace probably won't become an issue for us in the po's, where you have to able to execute "slow" half court offensive sets.
That's actually a good point. Our offense should easily translate to the playoffs whereas teams like Golden State will have to adjust.
 
Oh snap, I forgot to update this. I'll do it now.
 
Charts updated.

Fun fact discovered while researching this:

Kevin Love has the best Offensive Rating on the Cavs since Feb 1.

The More You Know.

Oh and we are now the 4th best offense in the league over the course of the entire season.
 
Charts updated.

Fun fact discovered while researching this:

Kevin Love has the best Offensive Rating on the Cavs since Feb 1.

The More You Know.

Oh and we are now the 4th best offense in the league over the course of the entire season.
BBref has us @ #2.
 

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