Tristan Thompson

[gourimoko]

Thanks, man.

How do you feel about BBREF's version of BPM?

BPM is very different.. As in, not remotely comparable.

BPM on the whole is a fine statistic to use; however, unlike RAPM/RPM the isolated defensive metrics from BPM are very unreliable and should not be used as indicators, but instead, to simply further confirm an already well supported position.

The reason for this is because BPM is entirely box score driven, and as such, doesn't capture most of the defensive contributions of a player. BBRef even mentions this when warning about the use of DBPM.

DRPM, IMHO, is more useful for measuring the defensive output of big men.

 

[NasstyNate]

So TT was 94th overall in RPM. Overall, there are 149 plus players in the league. He was 37th overall for PF/C. Breaking that down, he is the 15th C and 24th PF. Links included for each. Do I have that correct @priceFTW and @gourimoko?

 

[gourimoko]

So TT was 94th overall in RPM. Overall, there are 149 plus players in the league. He was 37th overall for PF/C. Breaking that down, he is the 15th C and 24th PF. Links included for each. Do I have that correct @priceFTW and @gourimoko?

Looks good to me.

 

[cavsfever]

Do you even watch the games? Tristan is incredible at boxing out -- which is opposed to your claim that "he never boxes out" -- is an incredible rebounder, is becoming a very good pnr/switch defender (let's not forget who was switching on to Steph Curry in Delly's good games), guards 3pt shooting big men well, is athletic, and most importantly, Lebron wants him.

I mostly agree with your points but let's not forget that Steph basically destroyed TT when TT switched on to him.

 

[NasstyNate]

Looks good to me.

Man I wish Lebron and I shared the same agent.

 

[gourimoko]

I mostly agree with your points but let's not forget that Steph basically destroyed TT when TT switched on to him.

In all fairness, that's not really Tristan's fault though.. He's playing center. He has no business guarding Steph Curry.

 

[OldSkool]

If it wasn't for Lebron sitting out there unsigned, I'd let the league set the market value for TT what with him being a RFA. IMHO he isn't a max player even with the cap going up.

 

[Jordan]

In all fairness, that's not really Tristan's fault though.. He's playing center. He has no business guarding Steph Curry.

In addition, Steph destroyed pretty much every big man that switched onto him. But I'd say, out of all of them, Tristan did the best. Now, that doesn't mean he did good, Steph is just flat out amazing.

 

[NasstyNate]

OFFENSE

TT's ORPM is 1.85, 10th highest among 167 PFs and Cs. Duncan, both Gasols, Love (after injury), Cousins, Bosh, Horford, Whiteside all have lower ORPMs. How in the hell is that possible when he has no offensive skill? Andrew Bogut shed some insight during the Finals when he said that even though Thompson doesn't shoot threes, he still spaces the floor by forcing Bogut to stay in contact with him because if he doesn't maintain contact with TT, Bogut would be out of position when TT crashed the glass for ORebs. When you watch TT operate, he'll hang around on the perimeter or at least 15 feet out and if opponents don't keep contact, he grabs ORebs. The Delly/Shump/LBJ/TT/Moz defensive monster lineup also had an impressive ORTG of 118 and that was with NO spacing via a stretch four. TT played a big role in that.

The more I think about this, the more I do not like this analysis. Nothing against you personally. Tristan is what, our 8th option on offense? You are comparing him to guys whose entire teams run through them. They are the first or second option and schemed against the entire time they are on the floor. Tristan's usage was 14%. Duncan (22.2%), Pau (24.7%), Marc (24.6%), Love (21.7%), Cousins (34.1%), Bosh (28.4%), Horford (22.2%), and Whiteside (21.1) all faced significantly more defensive pressure, so I would expect to see a lower ORPM. Especially considering TT's main role is to dunk the ball. 64% of his shots were at the rim! His closest comp would be D'Andre Jordan, who has zero offensive game and is there to smash alley oops and put-backs. Unsurprisingly, they are 1 and 2 in ORPM.

DEFENSE

His defensive rebounding needs work as does his help defense. His -.42 DRPM is terrible for a big and is a function of primarily his defensive rebounding (more defensive rebounds from TT end offensive possessions for the opposition)and poor help defense. His DRPM is below the DRPM of Diaw, Brook Lopez, Al Jefferson, and Pekovic, 125th out of 167 bigs.

Out of players who played at least 1000 minutes last season, he is 65th in DRB%, behind guys like Giannis, Sullinger, Ed Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Draymond Green.

136 players played 140+ defensive possessions in which they challenged spot up shooters. TT was 103rd out of 136 players.

He does well when guarding the roll man in pick and roll, giving up .68 PPP, top 19% in the league.

We know he can switch out and defend reasonably well on the perimeter. In ISO, he gives up .77 PPP, good for 16th best in the NBA, ahead of players such as Ariza, Klay, Wiggins, Giannis, Noel, DeAndre, and John Wall.

He defends the post well, allowing .78 PPP, 11th best out of 29 players who have played at least 150 defensive possessions.

Lastly, rim protection. Last year, he allowed an ugly 58% at the rim. This year, he allowed 52.2% at the rim which is great improvement. If he can get that number to 50%, it would be great for this team. With good coaching and LeBron's demands, I see him improving his rotations and help defense.

Defense is where we need him, and you show he is middling at best. I've been yelling about his poor help defense and DEF rebounding all year based on the eye test and am glad you provided some support. What has he shown that makes you think he will improve his rim protection?

So, for our needs, we have to weigh what he provides on defense way more than what he provides on offense, right? I wouldn't care if he averaged 5 points a game if he actually lived up to the Rodman comparison people like to make. Give him $90m if he plays D like Draymond. But he is nowhere close to that.

And I know none of this matters. SIgh.

 

[Helium filament]

In all fairness, that's not really Tristan's fault though.. He's playing center. He has no business guarding Steph Curry.

Whose fault was it that he continued to switch onto him, then? Honestly this still bugs me to this day. If it's the coaching staff, that's inexcusable IMO. If it's TT not listening to the coaches, then that's also ridiculous. It was infuriating to watch this happen again and again, game after game with no adjustment. /rant

 

[Paul]

The thing that pisses me off here is that the LeBron "leverage" is, I believe, near nil. I mean is LeBron James going to leave Cleveland because the Cavs didn't overpay for Tristan and other restricted free agents? I mean we probably already overpaid slightly for Shumpert and even at the 80 million dollar package for TT we are overpaying. I think LeBron would be crucified by the court of public opinion if he left over something so childish. Griffin is going to make sure TT is a Cav and he will be handsomely paid for a 10 and 10 guy. I know he's better than Omer Asik or Ed Davis but is he really worth a max contract or anything even close to max? He refused the 12 or 13 mil offer months ago, if we gave him 15ish per year IMO we are being insanely generous.

I believe that the logic that "it's Gilbert's money who cares" is not a good way of seeing this. The front office can't afford to be bullied by the players. We already have a situation where LeBron is influencing coaching and some minor free agent moves. We should have just let the unrestricted free agency period play out and paid the damn market price for these players, maybe with a slight markup as a sign of appreciation.

 

[macbdog]

...how much you want to bet that him and Green goes down to the wire, using each leak to bump up their offers? Hilarious watching the teams get bent over like this. At least Golden State ends up with a stretch 4 starting PF who actually can guard anybody; Cavs will still have an energy big who gets offensive but not defensive boards, has no offensive game and is a solid defender for the same price.

 

[LeBro]

The thing that pisses me off here is that the LeBron "leverage" is, I believe, near nil. I mean is LeBron James going to leave Cleveland because the Cavs didn't overpay for Tristan and other unrestricted free agents?

Yeah, I agree... LeBron doesn't really have much leverage. At this point, he can't leave Cleveland without really, really damaging his legacy. Could you imagine if he stayed for only one year and then left?

That's why I don't believe he's really holding the team hostage, and that the whole "LeBron will wait and see what the Cavs do before re-signing" stuff is just manufactured drama by the media.

 

[LeBro]

...how much you want to bet that him and Green goes down to the wire, using each leak to bump up their offers? Hilarious watching the teams get bent over like this. At least Golden State ends up with a stretch 4 starting PF who actually can guard anybody; Cavs will still have an energy big who gets offensive but not defensive boards, has no offensive game and is a solid defender for the same price.

Yes, agreed, but it's really not a matter of "is Thompson worth it, or should we instead pursue someone else." It's more like, "should we keep Thompson, or should we not keep Thompson."

It's not like if Thompson leaves we can turn around and offer a free agent the $90M we were going to give Thompson.

I'm sure you are aware of that, it's just easy to forget. Thompson is going to be overpaid for sure, but whatever. Unless Dan starts tightening the purse strings, it doesn't really matter.

 

[JMoneyYourHoney]

I believe that the logic that "it's Gilbert's money who cares" is not a good way of seeing this. The front office can't afford to be bullied by the players.

100% agree...a dangerous precedent is being set here. At this point it's less about the money and more the principle.