Victor Oladipo Crush-a-lot

[MirORich]

Yes and as I mentioned, Harris shot below 50% in both games. Both losses. Does not equate too "torching"

As for Oladipo's offense, that's just another example of you diminishing extreme efficiency against a well coached top25 team

As for the ridiculous age thing you grasped at, do you think Oladipo was a 28 year old taking advantage of these poor 18-20 year olds? No, he was 20 the entire basketball season. Do you think his game is not going to grow and improve as he gets older and gets NBA training and coaching?

I was talking strictly defense and Harris didn't even guard Oladipo, that would've been 6'1 PG Keith Appling.

If Oladipo is giving up nearly 20 pts against 18-20 year old NCAA players with borderline NBA potential, I hardly qualify that to be an elite NBA defender, which was the original argument. He's not an elite NBA defender today.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Try reading the post I was replying before spouting off.

He said Oladipo would thrive playing with Kyrie and Dion. Unless he meant he'd play PF or C. I never know.

There are 96 minutes at the 1 and 2.

So a random hypothetical breakdown......

At the 1:

Kyrie - 36 minutes
Dion - 4-5 minutes
Backup - 3-4 minutes

At the 2:

Dion - 28-30 minutes
Oladipo: 16-18 minutes

At the 3:

Oladipo: 10-12 minutes

No one is saying VO is a starting small forward but he could certainly spot duty 2-3 minutes per quarter there.

In that scenario VO could play with either Kyrie or Dion in every minute he's on the court and for 25-30% of his minutes, both.

So clearly his offense will be helped by two players who are very good 1 on 1 creators. That's all anyone is trying to point out.

 

[EdMonix11]

Dude, it's hard to take you seriously when you act like Oladipo brings nothing on offense. He's probably the best finisher at the rim of any player in this draft, he's an excellent offensive rebounder for a guard, and he can knock down open 3's. You act like Indiana could have just plugged in any stiff in Oladipo's place and he would've shot 60% from the field and 44% from 3. Just silly. So he only made 4 of his last 15 3's in the season. You know who else made 4 of his last 15 3's? Ray Allen. You know who made 3 of his last 15 3's? Stephen Curry. Just because a guy finishes the season on a cold streak doesn't mean you throw out the abundant evidence that he is, in fact, a good shooter.

HAHAHAHAHA Post of the Year!!!!!

And you say it's hard to take me seriously? You mentioned OLADIPO in the same breath as STEPHEN CURRY AND RAY ALLEN.

Where is the evidence he's a good shooter? He attempted 68 three pointers all of last year. He didn't go on a cold streak, he just started coming back to earth. It's an incredibly small sample size. He's a below average FT shooter for his position, how do you explain that? How do you explain his poor shooting the previous two years?

It goes both ways.....

 

[MirORich]

I'm not advocating him being a starter at SF. I'm saying, if he ends up being the pick, there's 15-20 minutes a night for him at SG and another 8-20 per night at SF depending on the matchup.

There are pleny of people who have made that arguement

And

You are aware of what Dipio measured right?

6'3 w/o shoes and 6'4.25 with shoes

Dipio is barely 6'4 in shoes and people want him to start at SF, he would more than likely get abused by SF's in the league

http://basslinespin.blogspot.com/2011/06/average-size-of-nba-starter.html



If Dipio played full time at SF he would be the shortest SF in the league

 

[MirORich]

Then you're the type of person that thinks Ben Gordon is a winner and good player because you have no concept of Offensive Efficiency, Volume Shooters, or Chuckers.

If you want to continue to find other parts of his game or better examples to use, go for it. BUt if you don't drop the Gary Harris and Brandon Paul examples that are easily dispelled, you're burying your argument.

If Oladipo is giving up nearly 20 pts against 18-20 year old NCAA players with borderline NBA potential, I hardly qualify that to be an elite NBA defender, which was the original argument. He's not an elite NBA defender today.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Dipio is barely 6'4 in shoes and people want him to start at SF, he would more than likely get abused by SF's in the league

Aside from the fact that he's a brick house. He weighed in at 213 LBS, so he's far sturdier than a typical SG.

I'm not advocating him logging heavy minutes at small forward but given his frame, length and athleticism, he would not get abused by SF's.

The biggest fear in playing a smaller (height) player is exposing him to the post up. If the undersized player is rugged and has elite athleticism, that fear is mitigated significantly.

Again, he is not a full time player there but he's big enough (frame wise) and athletic enough to play spot minutes at the 3 and potentially guard that position in crunch time.

 

[KB]

Dude, it's hard to take you seriously when you act like Oladipo brings nothing on offense. He's probably the best finisher at the rim of any player in this draft, he's an excellent offensive rebounder for a guard, and he can knock down open 3's.

You act like Indiana could have just plugged in any stiff in Oladipo's place and he would've shot 60% from the field and 44% from 3.

Just silly. So he only made 4 of his last 15 3's in the season. You know who else made 4 of his last 15 3's? Ray Allen. You know who made 3 of his last 15 3's? Stephen Curry. Just because a guy finishes the season on a cold streak doesn't mean you throw out the abundant evidence that he is, in fact, a good shooter.

From Dipio's scouting report again since you want to mention some of the best shooters we've seen in that last decade or so and make youself look kind of silly considering Dipio's career 3p fg% at IU was 33% on 48/142

While his calling card as a prospect is his defense, it's the progression in his offensive game that has been the primary reason for his breakout season. After making only 18 of his 74 3-point attempts (24%) in his first two seasons at Indiana, he's connected on an excellent 19 of 37 so far this season (51%) from behind the arc, which ranks second among all top-100 prospects who attempt at least one 3-pointer per game. (Dipio went on to make 11 of his last 31. About a 33% rate, which is shockingly his career average)

His shooting numbers are likely a bit inflated at this stage with such a small sample size, but it's clear that he's put in the work to improve his jump shot. He looks more fluid and comfortable with his release than last year, and the ball seems to come off of his hands softer, with better rotation and arc on his shot.

He's also done a very good job knowing his limitations as a shooter, as 74% of his jumpers this season have come off the catch with his feet set, and the pull-up jumpers he has taken have been good, open looks for the most part.

NBA teams will likely want to see more evidence that his early season shooting is not a fluke, as well as see how he might adjust to the longer NBA 3-point, but his improvements are very encouraging and should suggest that the potential is there for him to become an adequate spot shooter in time, assuming he continues to put in the work.

Even his scouting reports are questioning his ability to hit the 3 and shot the ball on a consistent basis. People have become so infatuated with Dipio they are over looking his faults and question marks by using small sample sizes to back blanket statements about his offense

Dipio took only 68 3's this season and made 30. If 5 bounce the wrong that drops his 3pfg down to 36%, 7-8%% points.

Also going to say it again

Dipio's career 3p fg% at IU was 33% on 48/142

There is no way to tell if Dipio will be able to consistently hit the 3 from NBA range, it took him 3 years to find it IU and now he has to adjust a change in distance just after getting it down.

 

[Nathan S]

HAHAHAHAHA Post of the Year!!!!!

And you say it's hard to take me seriously? You mentioned OLADIPO in the same breath as STEPHEN CURRY AND RAY ALLEN.

Where is the evidence he's a good shooter? He attempted 68 three pointers all of last year. He didn't go on a cold streak, he just started coming back to earth. It's an incredibly small sample size. He's a below average FT shooter for his position, how do you explain that? How do you explain his poor shooting the previous two years?

It goes both ways.....

Not sure if you're trolling or not...if you truly didn't get my point there, it was that even the best three point shooters in the world are prone to cold streaks. Perfect consistency is impossible for every player...that's why it makes sense to look at a whole season, not cherry pick a player's worst games and draw conclusions from that.

Also, you know who had the exact same free throw percentage (75%) as Oladipo last season? Dion Waiters. I expect them both to be close to 80% next year, and that's a perfectly normal number for an SG.

 

[EdMonix11]

Yes and as I mentioned, Harris shot below 50% in both games. Both losses. Does not equate too "torching"

As for Oladipo's offense, that's just another example of you diminishing extreme efficiency against a well coached top25 team

As for the ridiculous age thing you grasped at, do you think Oladipo was a 28 year old taking advantage of these poor 18-20 year olds? No, he was 20 the entire basketball season. Do you think his game is not going to grow and improve as he gets older and gets NBA training and coaching?

Look. Someone said he's an elite NBA defender right now. I disagree because he's given up quite a few points to players that would be on the lower end of the talent spectrum compared to what he'd face in the NBA, not to mention younger and way less experienced thus the age reference. So if that's too hard for you to grasp, oh well, I'm done trying to make that point.

His advanced stats and usages are scary bad for a SG at IU. Fran Frashilla said IU tried developing those guard skills but he didn't improve and they needed Hulls' shooting, so they carved out a role for Oladipo to take advantage of his athleticism. So essentially, he was showcased at IU; his strengths and skills were put to the forefront to hide his weaknesses. That's going to be extremely difficult for an NBA team to do based on the pure structure of the NBA game. You need offense out of your guards. If you don't have two guards that can create offense, one needs to be a knockout shooter; Oladipo can't create. If his shooting last year at IU is a mirage, which looks like it could be, then he's basically a garbage man guard and I can't really say I've ever seen any of those; they usually need to move to a forward position full time; Oladipo is 6'4". So where do you play him? Seems like a lot of questions for a high lottery pick. You mention coaching, couldn't you say the same about someone at #19 and improve his defense?

 

[MirORich]

Good points. and backed up with statistics. However, if you're talking bounces, you're talking chance and randomness. But you didn't make the point that if 5 more of his missed shots that were on trajectory and hit the rim bounce the right way, his percentage would soar in the other direction. Or perhaps, 5 that he made bounce the wrong way but 5 he missed bounce the right way, keeping his percentage the same. 68 is not high volume, but its not tiny sample size either. I tend to think the best stats to go with are the ones that actually took place and were earned by proper technique, positioning, form, and poise.

But even if I support your argument, my thing is, his 3P% is like 5th or 6th on the list of what I think he brings to a team.

Elite defensive potential
Elite athleticism
Excellent finisher
Extreme competitor
Super work ethic and desire to be best(hired sports psychologist two years ago to help refine killer mentality)

Work ethic and competitor is a red flag when attached to non athletic players. But when attached to an athletic freak, it's something that you definitely take into account

The 3P% is something that he has shown he is capable of and something that Kyrie is above average at as well. It's not a make or break thing as far as whether he is worthy of selection for us.

From Dipio's scouting report again since you want to mention some of the best shooters we've seen in that last decade or so and make youself look kind of silly considering Dipio's career 3p fg% at IU was 33% on 48/142



Even his scouting reports are questioning his ability to hit the 3 and shot the ball on a consistent basis. People have become so infatuated with Dipio they are over looking his faults and question marks by using small sample sizes to back blanket statements about his offense

Dipio took only 68 3's this season and made 30. If 5 bounce the wrong that drops his 3pfg down to 36%, 7-8%% points.

Also going to say it again

Dipio's career 3p fg% at IU was 33% on 48/142

There is no way to tell if Dipio will be able to consistently hit the 3 from NBA range, it took him 3 years to find it IU and now he has to adjust a change in distance just after getting it down.

 

[MirORich]

First of all. If a player scores 30 points but shot 12-30 to get it while ignoring more efficient offensive teammates, than that is bad offense. So using purely a point total as a way to measure that Oladipo didn't contain another college player is just not smart. If the player Oladipo defended shot under 50% and Oladipo had 7-8 rebounds, and 4-5 steals, then thats a damn good defensive game.

Secondly on the age thing. If we draft Oladipo, it's for what we think he'll do over 7-8 years going forward, not in year one. So if the Cavs draft him in part because they think he has elite defensive potential, believe me, they're well aware that 21 year old Oladipo might not be able to completely handle the top 4-5 offensive wings in the league in year one. They will be projecting Oladipo in years 3-4-5-6, the years we'll be contending at the high levels, to be an elite wing defender.

Look. Someone said he's an elite NBA defender right now. I disagree because he's given up quite a few points to players that would be on the lower end of the talent spectrum compared to what he'd face in the NBA, not to mention younger and way less experienced thus the age reference. So if that's too hard for you to grasp, oh well, I'm done trying to make that point.

 

[KB]

Good points. and backed up with statistics. However, if you're talking bounces, you're talking chance and randomness. But you didn't make the point that if 5 more of his missed shots that were on trajectory and hit the rim bounce the right way, his percentage would soar in the other direction. Or perhaps, 5 that he made bounce the wrong way but 5 he missed bounce the right way, keeping his percentage the same. 68 is not high volume, but its not tiny sample size either. I tend to think the best stats to go with are the ones that actually took place and were earned by proper technique, positioning, form, and poise.

But even if I support your argument, my thing is, his 3P% is like 5th or 6th on the list of what I think he brings to a team.

Elite defensive potential
Elite athleticism
Excellent finisher
Extreme competitor
Super work ethic and desire to be best(hired sports psychologist two years ago to help refine killer mentality)

Work ethic and competitor is a red flag when attached to non athletic players. But when attached to an athletic freak, it's something that you definitely take into account

The 3P% is something that he has shown he is capable of and something that Kyrie is above average at as well. It's not a make or break thing as far as whether he is worthy of selection for us.

I look at

I Figured the bounces were self explanatory but you are right should have clarified the opposite outcome as well. Either way it still shows that Dipio's shooting % might be an anomaly until a larger sample size at NBA distance is accounted for.

I think the consistency of Dipio's range will be important if he's expected to be on the floor with Dion and KI at the same time. If Dipio can't be consistent with his outside shot then the D will sag which closes lanes for Dion and KI.

Though I understand the physical attributes are nothing to thumb your nose at and it is why so many people are intrigued by Dipio.

The bolded is something that I wasn't aware of and not many have mentioned, it's a very interesting kink as not many players do this until they are in pro league

I like Dipio as an SG, but don't like him at the SF on the Cavs for multiple reasons. I could see Dipio running the point from time because of his IQ but don't see him excelling at SF

The fact that the Cavs have Dion and Dion should continue to be the starter after having a rookie season where his per 36 numbers and his PER rating were very similar to that of Harden, Wade and Westbrook is another reason why taking Dipio with the Cavs first pick doesn't make sense unless one of them is trade bait for a player like Love

If the Cavs get shat on by the ping pong balls and end up 4th or later I wouldn't mind Dipo but if that is the case I'd prefer a trade back of the pick where the Cavs end up in the 7-10 range and grabbing Adams, Len or Gobert since they will probably go around there

 

[MirORich]

It might seem like it from tonights posts, but I'm not an Oladipo fanboy. He's just simply one of 4 players that I would be comfortable with out of the top 6 selection we get(Noel, Porter, Len, Dipo). I know he's not perfect, but when arguing the faults of one potential selection, its easy to forget that other potential selections have faults as well.

As far as the sports psychologist thing, it comes from a post Wine and Gold made in earlier in the main NBA Draft thread(post 3935 on page 263):

http://www.realcavsfans.com/showthread.php?39907-2013-NBA-Draft/page263

The physical gifts he has been blessed with are off the charts. Pure and simple. The work ethic and character are also very obvious, and even more impressive once you talk to coaches/players/fellow students/faculty at IU,.., What you realize is that he has within him, the key factors of work ethic, determination, intelligence, and focus to take those off the chart physical gifts he's blessed with, and maximize them. Those that I have talked to mention how he has this Type A passion, but in the past two years he's worked with a sports psychologist who has found ways for him to channel that into a singular, tunnel vision-like energy when it comes to his basketball ability. And what I've seen is a level of growth within his game that reflects great great strides. But, it's when you take what you see before you, which is amazing as it is ...then you have an understanding of how he's gotten it, and dialed it in the past few years.... you see just how far he's come in terms of his improved skills ...then what you do is take what you've seen, and the reasons behind it and project forward. When I project forward, I see a kid that can very possibly hit levels of performance we rarely see in this game. I truly do see a level of performance within him, a competitive desire within him, a passion and work ethic within him, a combined intelligence and focus ...I add them all up and I see something that could ultimately end up not just at the top of this draft, but one of the best in the league.

When I see that I disregard the position he plays, and what my roster may need ..and you simply take that shot at possible greatness. When you have a chance at Michael Jordan, you don't draft for need and lock down Sam Bowie, ...that's where my head is at with Oladipo.

Don't construe this as me saying he's the next Jordan ...I',m just using that draft, and logic used in that draft as an example of why I would grab Oladipo over anyone else in this draft.

I Figured the bounces were self explanatory but you are right should have clarified the opposite outcome as well. Either way it still shows that Dipio's shooting % might be an anomaly until a larger sample size at NBA distance is accounted for.

The bolded is something that I wasn't aware of and not many have mentioned, it's a very interesting kink as not many players do this until they are in pro league

I like Dipio as an SG, but don't like him at the SF on the Cavs for multiple reasons. I could see Dipio running the point from time because of his IQ but don't see him excelling at SF

The fact that the Cavs have Dion and Dion should continue to be the starter after having a rookie season where his per 36 numbers and his PER rating were very similar to that of Harden, Wade and Westbrook.

If the Cavs get shat on by the ping pong balls and end up 4th or later I wouldn't mind Dipo but at that point I'd prefer a trade of the pick where the Cavs are in the 7-10 range and grabbing Adams, Len or Gobert since they will probably go around there

 

[Nathan S]

The standard deviation on Oladipo's 3 point shooting, sqrt[(.441-.441^2)/68], is 6%. That means there's a 68% chance that his "natural" shooting percentage is somewhere between 38% and 50%, and an 84% chance he's at least a 38% 3 point shooter. With his work ethic and solid shooting form, I'll take my chances on that.

 

[KB]

The standard deviation on Oladipo's 3 point shooting, sqrt[(.441-.441^2)/68], is 6%.

That means there's a 68% chance that his "natural" shooting percentage is somewhere between 38% and 50%, and an 84% chance he's at least a 38% 3 point shooter. With his work ethic and solid shooting form, I'll take my chances on that.

Where are you getting the deviation from? Just curious

Wouldn't using his career and figuring out the standard deviation off those number be a better predictor than just this last season which is the anomaly?

Dipio's career at IU he wa s 48/142 for 33 % (jumped to about 36 when he was in spot up sitautions iirc, can't find link)

After shooting 51% (19/37) up until the 5th of Feb 2013 he finshed the out remainng season only going for 35% (11/31)

The 35% is more in line with his career, up until the first few months of this year. I kinda of expect him to be in the 30-36% range because you have to take into account the increased distance of the NBA 3 point shot

Only the best shooters to play this game have their 3pfg % directly correlate between college and the NBA.

Shooters like Ray Allen see this 3p fg% correlate but it wasn't until his 4th year in the league that Ray adjusted enough to the range to where he was making them at a 40% clip