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What odds do the top 5 worst teams have to win #1?

Discussion in 'Trades, Free Agency, & the Draft' started by DeeThree, Feb 11, 2019.

  1. DeeThree

    DeeThree ZION!!!!

    Feb 22, 2007
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    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
  2. Ozone

    Ozone Rookie

    Mar 10, 2017
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    Well if the Cavs don't have the worst record the pick "could be" 6th if second worst,7th if 3rd worse etc. Where as 5th is worst pick if they have the worst record etc.

    The odds of 4 teams leapfrogging into the top 4 via lottery ( used to be top 3)with better records than CLE pushing them down is very very slim, but the odds of 1 team getting a higher pick are pretty good now.
    I was half listening to Jeff Phelps today and he's got it all wrong think cavs need to win more games etc and add another piece instead of
    tanking for Zion, justifying his rational that the odds are not as good having the worst record to get the best pick etc.

    It isn't so much about winning the lottery as it is ensuring the worst pick you have is still in the top 5 by having the worst record and by doing so the most likely outcome picking 2nd in 50% of the drawing sims with 1 team leapfrogging them.
    The same thing happens if they have the 2nd worst record where they occasionally get the 1st and often get the 2nd,occasionally get the 3rd, but rarely get pushed to 4th or later.
    If they have the 3rd worse record, several times they picked 4th etc.
    The odds of them landing the 2nd worst record are more likely at this point though after beating NY and the only difference is they could drop to 6th but are still far more likely win the lottery, pick at 2 or get bumped to 3. The 2nd worst record is required imo. to get a all star floor & superstar ceiling prospect.
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  3. Mr. MacPhisto

    Mr. MacPhisto Lapsed Point Guard

    Jun 29, 2008
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    Tampa, FL
    If you have the second worst record, you have an 80% chance at a Top 5 pick. Third worst and it drops to 67%. Fourth and it's 55.4% chance of a Top 5 pick.

    But in 4th you've also got odds at #1 that are not far off the odds of the bottom 3.

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