Barnes numbers may not look as good as Deng's but they do look a lot like Josh Childress's freshmen numbers. Childress came out as a Junior and went #6 in the '04 draft after improving each year in college.
Which is not exactly an endorsement of Barnes, but just points to the vagaries of the draft.
<table class="sortable stats_table" id="college"><thead><tr style="" class=""><th colspan="3" class="tooltip over_header" align="CENTER">
</th> <th colspan="16" class="bold_text over_header" align="center">Totals</th> <th colspan="3" class="bold_text over_header" align="center">Shooting</th> <th colspan="4" class="bold_text over_header" align="center">Per Game</th> </tr> <tr style="" class=""> <th class="tooltip sort_default_asc" align="left">Season</th> <th class="tooltip sort_default_asc" align="center">Age</th> <th class="tooltip sort_default_asc" align="left">College</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">G</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">MP</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FG</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FGA</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">3P</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">3PA</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FT</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FTA</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">ORB</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">TRB</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">AST</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">STL</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">BLK</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">TOV</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">PF</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">PTS</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FG%</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">3P%</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FT%</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">MP</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">PTS</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">TRB</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">AST</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr style="" class=""> <td align="left">2001-02</td> <td align="right">18</td> <td align="left">
STANFORD</td> <td align="right">30</td> <td align="right">645</td> <td align="right">94</td> <td align="right">234</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">80</td> <td align="right">25</td> <td align="right">36</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">144</td> <td align="right">24</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">235</td> <td align="right">.402</td> <td align="right">.275</td> <td align="right">.694</td> <td align="right">21.5</td> <td align="right">7.8</td> <td align="right">4.8</td> <td align="right">0.8</td> </tr> <tr style="" class=""> <td align="left">2002-03</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="left">
STANFORD</td> <td align="right">33</td> <td align="right">1128</td> <td align="right">168</td> <td align="right">393</td> <td align="right">48</td> <td align="right">144</td> <td align="right">82</td> <td align="right">114</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">266</td> <td align="right">70</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">466</td> <td align="right">.427</td> <td align="right">.333</td> <td align="right">.719</td> <td align="right">34.2</td> <td align="right">14.1</td> <td align="right">8.1</td> <td align="right">2.1</td> </tr> <tr style="" class=""> <td align="left">2003-04</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="left">
STANFORD</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">685</td> <td align="right">124</td> <td align="right">254</td> <td align="right">34</td> <td align="right">86</td> <td align="right">78</td> <td align="right">95</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">173</td> <td align="right">61</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">360</td> <td align="right">.488</td> <td align="right">.395</td> <td align="right">.821</td> <td align="right">29.8</td> <td align="right">15.7</td> <td align="right">7.5</td> <td align="right">2.7</td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot> <tr style="" class=" stat_total"> <td align="left">Career</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> <td align="right">86</td> <td align="right">2458</td> <td align="right">386</td> <td align="right">881</td> <td align="right">104</td> <td align="right">310</td> <td align="right">185</td> <td align="right">245</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">583</td> <td align="right">155</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">1061</td> <td align="right">.438</td> <td align="right">.335</td> <td align="right">.755</td> <td align="right">28.6</td> <td align="right">12.3</td> <td align="right">6.8</td> <td align="right">1.8</td></tr></tfoot></table>
Heck, this works both ways. Iguodala went 9th in the same draft after Deng and Childress, and his freshmen numbers at Arizona were retched:
<table class="sortable stats_table" id="college"><thead><tr style="" class=""><th colspan="3" class="tooltip over_header" align="CENTER">
</th> <th colspan="16" class="bold_text over_header" align="center">Totals</th> <th colspan="3" class="bold_text over_header" align="center">Shooting</th> <th colspan="4" class="bold_text over_header" align="center">Per Game</th> </tr> <tr style="" class=""> <th class="tooltip sort_default_asc" align="left">Season</th> <th class="tooltip sort_default_asc" align="center">Age</th> <th class="tooltip sort_default_asc" align="left">College</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">G</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">MP</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FG</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FGA</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">3P</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">3PA</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FT</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FTA</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">ORB</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">TRB</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">AST</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">STL</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">BLK</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">TOV</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">PF</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">PTS</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FG%</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">3P%</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">FT%</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">MP</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">PTS</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">TRB</th> <th class="tooltip" align="right">AST</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr style="" class=""> <td align="left">2002-03</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="left">
ARIZONA</td> <td align="right">32</td> <td align="right">614</td> <td align="right">69</td> <td align="right">181</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td align="right">44</td> <td align="right">59</td> <td align="right">88</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">156</td> <td align="right">66</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">206</td> <td align="right">.381</td> <td align="right">.205</td> <td align="right">.670</td> <td align="right">19.2</td> <td align="right">6.4</td> <td align="right">4.9</td> <td align="right">2.1</td> </tr> <tr style="" class=""> <td align="left">2003-04</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="left">
ARIZONA</td> <td align="right">30</td> <td align="right">962</td> <td align="right">136</td> <td align="right">302</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">73</td> <td align="right">93</td> <td align="right">118</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">253</td> <td align="right">147</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">388</td> <td align="right">.450</td> <td align="right">.315</td> <td align="right">.788</td> <td align="right">32.1</td> <td align="right">12.9</td> <td align="right">8.4</td> <td align="right">4.9</td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot> <tr style="" class=" stat_total"> <td align="left">Career</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="left">
</td> <td align="right">62</td> <td align="right">1576</td> <td align="right">205</td> <td align="right">483</td> <td align="right">32</td> <td align="right">117</td> <td align="right">152</td> <td align="right">206</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">409</td> <td align="right">213</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">594</td> <td align="right">.424</td> <td align="right">.274</td> <td align="right">.738</td> <td align="right">25.4</td> <td align="right">9.6</td> <td align="right">6.6</td> <td align="right">3.4</td></tr></tfoot></table>
Suffice it to say that if Barnes was playing more impressively, he'd be going top-3 in this draft - but he's not playing like a franchise player. That still appears to leave a lot of open ground.