I think we've seen time and again that a close first round series doesn't really mean anything in the long run. Last year, the Thunder, Spurs and Pacers all got pushed to 7 in the first round. All three made the conference finals. The Celtics got pushed to 7 in the first round in 08 and ended up winning it all. The Magic got pushed to 6 in the first round in 09, and they made the finals. The Lakers went to 6 in 2010. They won the championship. The Mavs went to 6 in 2011. They won the championship.
First round series really aren't indicative of anything.