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The ISIS offensive in Iraq

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The Oi said:
Can someone explain to me (ideally concisely), what the fuck is happening in Syria right now and why?
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The US has once again stuck its nose in where it doesn't belong.
We see footage of bomb victims from yesterday yet there are over 100,000 people dead from the Syrian crisis.
We said we were going to help Syrians, which means the same thing that it always means when we "help" other countries - we are going to make it worse. And we did! We claimed we couldn't stop ISIS with what we were doing, and we got token support from our incredibly shady UN partners, but ISIS still grew and massacred people. So then Russia just came in and said WTF and will do more in one week than we managed to do in years. They will crush ISIS and Assad's opponents quickly, and they will be forever known as the ISIS/ISIL stoppers who did what Americans head-scratchingly couldn't.

Now there's more that I don't get, along the lines of Russia/Iran/Iraq/Syria versus US/Saudi Arabia/? but the article that I posted is suggesting a balance of power shift in the ME.

It's just over. The whole charade of "US world protector" is over. Call a spade a spade and offer a world-wide, half-hearted apology. We need an absolute, complete mindset change as a country and as citizens.

And I will now go over to the Pres page to rip into Trump. Fuck.
 
natedagg said:
If Russia ends up bolstering Iran's position in Syria (by expanding Hezbollah's influence and capabilities) and if the Russian air force effectively takes control of Iraq thus allowing Iran to exert a greater influence over the government in Baghdad, the fragile balanace of power that has existed in the region will be turned on its head and in the event this plays out, one should not expect Washington, Riyadh, Jerusalem, and London to simply go gentle into that good night.
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Why not? I mean, I don't expect Israel to run up the white flag, but nobody else there has the power to do anything absent strong U.S. support, and I think we've just made it clear that's not happening.

Realistically, the only support we're going to give is going to be verbal, and that's of no consequence.

If the Saudis are smart, they should cut the best deal they can with Sauron in Russia before Saruman on Teheran gets hungry.
 
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gourimoko said:
There is an ongoing civil war that has essentially devolved into a stalemate. Multiple factions are fighting against Assad who is holds specific regions of the country, and those factions are also fighting among themselves. One of those factions is the Islamic State.
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Reminded me of the following pages from Asterix and the Black Gold:

26-%20Asterix%20and%20the%20Black%20Gold(32).jpg

26-%20Asterix%20and%20the%20Black%20Gold(33).jpg

26-%20Asterix%20and%20the%20Black%20Gold(34).jpg

(For those of you who are interested, here are all the Asterix comics available for free: http://asterixonline.info/comics/index.php?manga=Asterix_Comics&chapter=01)
 
EDIT: please click the link to see the image that will not post. It shows what 4 years of crisis did to Syria's infrastructure. It's worth a look.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/09/daily-chart-18?fsrc=scn/esp/FB

Graphic detail
Charts, maps and infographics
Daily chart
Syria’s drained population
Sep 30th 2015, 10:55 BY THE DATA TEAM
20151003_wom001.png

OVER the past few summers—when the paths are clear and the seas calm—Syria has churned out high numbers of migrants and refugees. But this year has seen the greatest outflow yet. The latest UN figures obtained by this newspaper (as yet unpublished) show that Syria’s population has shrunk to just 16.6m, down from a pre-war level of around 22m. With 4m UN-registered refugees abroad, at least 1m more unregistered and 7m internally displaced people, more than half the country’s population has been forced to move. UN officials think the number could be significantly higher than that, since estimates of the pre-war population vary widely. One indicator of this is satellite images of night-time electric-light intensity (evidence of human activity) which has fallen over 80% since the start of the war. Up to 250,000 people have died over the same period.

Those leaving cite several motives for moving now. Syria’s war is intensifying: the number of armed incidents rose from 4,000 in January to 6,000 in August, according to a data agency with scores of monitors on the ground. Some are fleeing Islamic State (IS) though many more are leaving from rebel-held areas that are being attacked by President Bashar Assad’s regime. Yet none of the four main countries hosting Syria’s registered refugees—Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq—recognises them as such. This means that they are unable to work legally. And by their own accounts, hostility towards them is rising. Small wonder Europe seems a more welcoming prospect.

See full article here.
 
The Human Q-Tip said:
What exactly does that mean?

Those "streets" are going to end up being controlled by Assad, Russia, and Iran. The way i look at it, that's the Pottery Barn rule. They wanted it, they got it, so it's their problem now.

What are we supposed to do? If Syria is not our problem any more then....it's not our problem.
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So a good chunk of the bolded I understand. It's why I get frustrated when people say Syria is not our problem. As a global citizen, all problems should be our problems. But, I agree with that end of your logic.

I also don't think most Syrians wanted Assad to be ruling Syria. I think the elite wanted Assad to be ruling Syria. I think the Allawi minority and some Kurds liked Assad's religious policies but disliked his economic ones. The reason I am using the word "think" here is because I haven't spoken to a large enough sample size for me to quote this as fact, and because it really is tough to tell. I do know that this was a popular uprising and that Assad's economic policies helped his biggest religious opponents: Sunnis, while hurting Allawis. But evaluating discontent is tough, and I'll concede that point.

But, we have well over four million Syrian refugees, in a variety of European and Middle Eastern countries. There are countless humanitarian organizations with donations services, if you want to go that way. If you speak Arabic, there are Syrians coming into the United States who need help learning English. Also, plenty of the Syrians speak both languages but need help learning business skills, cookings skills, etc. and that is an easy way to help. Finally, we're about to have a lot more Syrian refugees who speak English and Arabic, but just want people to talk to. I highly recommend trying to befriend them if you want to help refugees in the U.S.

My issue is people who say if we don't intervene militarily we shouldn't care about their plight. From reading your posts, I can tell you don't feel that way. But it's come up on my Facebook news feed and it's been irritating me. The world doesn't start and end with US foreign policy.
 
natedagg said:
EDIT: please click the link to see the image that will not post. It shows what 4 years of crisis did to Syria's infrastructure. It's worth a look.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/09/daily-chart-18?fsrc=scn/esp/FB

Graphic detail
Charts, maps and infographics
Daily chart
Syria’s drained population
Sep 30th 2015, 10:55 BY THE DATA TEAM
20151003_wom001.png

OVER the past few summers—when the paths are clear and the seas calm—Syria has churned out high numbers of migrants and refugees. But this year has seen the greatest outflow yet. The latest UN figures obtained by this newspaper (as yet unpublished) show that Syria’s population has shrunk to just 16.6m, down from a pre-war level of around 22m. With 4m UN-registered refugees abroad, at least 1m more unregistered and 7m internally displaced people, more than half the country’s population has been forced to move. UN officials think the number could be significantly higher than that, since estimates of the pre-war population vary widely. One indicator of this is satellite images of night-time electric-light intensity (evidence of human activity) which has fallen over 80% since the start of the war. Up to 250,000 people have died over the same period.

Those leaving cite several motives for moving now. Syria’s war is intensifying: the number of armed incidents rose from 4,000 in January to 6,000 in August, according to a data agency with scores of monitors on the ground. Some are fleeing Islamic State (IS) though many more are leaving from rebel-held areas that are being attacked by President Bashar Assad’s regime. Yet none of the four main countries hosting Syria’s registered refugees—Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq—recognises them as such. This means that they are unable to work legally. And by their own accounts, hostility towards them is rising. Small wonder Europe seems a more welcoming prospect.

See full article here.
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Nah @natedagg , didn't you hear? They're going to Europe for the money and welfare... Fuck 'em.
 
jking948 said:
So a good chunk of the bolded I understand. It's why I get frustrated when people say Syria is not our problem. As a global citizen, all problems should be our problems. But, I agree with that end of your logic.

I also don't think most Syrians wanted Assad to be ruling Syria. I think the elite wanted Assad to be ruling Syria. I think the Allawi minority and some Kurds liked Assad's religious policies but disliked his economic ones. The reason I am using the word "think" here is because I haven't spoken to a large enough sample size for me to quote this as fact, and because it really is tough to tell. I do know that this was a popular uprising and that Assad's economic policies helped his biggest religious opponents: Sunnis, while hurting Allawis. But evaluating discontent is tough, and I'll concede that point.

But, we have well over four million Syrian refugees, in a variety of European and Middle Eastern countries. There are countless humanitarian organizations with donations services, if you want to go that way. If you speak Arabic, there are Syrians coming into the United States who need help learning English. Also, plenty of the Syrians speak both languages but need help learning business skills, cookings skills, etc. and that is an easy way to help. Finally, we're about to have a lot more Syrian refugees who speak English and Arabic, but just want people to talk to. I highly recommend trying to befriend them if you want to help refugees in the U.S.

My issue is people who say if we don't intervene militarily we shouldn't care about their plight. From reading your posts, I can tell you don't feel that way. But it's come up on my Facebook news feed and it's been irritating me. The world doesn't start and end with US foreign policy.
Click to expand...

But at the same time, we just CANT save everyone everywhere, as we don't have the resources or political support from the citizens. This is going to come across as naive but fuck it:
-We should be dropping food/medicine/water to the refugee camps around Syria. Maybe send medical aide and a few troops (?).
-We should create our own refugee camps, at the very least, to give people the basic necessities of life.

I think the distinction here is that for crises, especially those that we had some part in creating, we should step up. These crises need to be defined as "temporary" in some way, although I am not sure how.

And we aren't ready for it, but we need to get rid of this stupid muslim hatred too. Like I said, we aren't there yet...
 
jking948 said:
So a good chunk of the bolded I understand. It's why I get frustrated when people say Syria is not our problem. As a global citizen, all problems should be our problems. But, I agree with that end of your logic.

I also don't think most Syrians wanted Assad to be ruling Syria. I think the elite wanted Assad to be ruling Syria. I think the Allawi minority and some Kurds liked Assad's religious policies but disliked his economic ones. The reason I am using the word "think" here is because I haven't spoken to a large enough sample size for me to quote this as fact, and because it really is tough to tell. I do know that this was a popular uprising and that Assad's economic policies helped his biggest religious opponents: Sunnis, while hurting Allawis. But evaluating discontent is tough, and I'll concede that point.

But, we have well over four million Syrian refugees, in a variety of European and Middle Eastern countries. There are countless humanitarian organizations with donations services, if you want to go that way. If you speak Arabic, there are Syrians coming into the United States who need help learning English. Also, plenty of the Syrians speak both languages but need help learning business skills, cookings skills, etc. and that is an easy way to help. Finally, we're about to have a lot more Syrian refugees who speak English and Arabic, but just want people to talk to. I highly recommend trying to befriend them if you want to help refugees in the U.S.

My issue is people who say if we don't intervene militarily we shouldn't care about their plight. From reading your posts, I can tell you don't feel that way. But it's come up on my Facebook news feed and it's been irritating me. The world doesn't start and end with US foreign policy.
Click to expand...

I'd agree with spending significant sums to help people in refugee camps or to settle them elsewhere. But I don't believe that our moral obligation extends to taking in significant numbers of people permanently. If this war ends, then they'll need folks to rebuild that country.

I'm simply thinking of @King Stannis thread about the long term issue migration from the Third World. Then are going to be some pretty horrible economic times. And if the criteria for entry becomes "no jobs/no future", that's an open door.

I think refugee status should be for war or persecution of specific religious/ethnic minorities. And when the war ends, the general rule should be going back home.
 
natedagg said:
But at the same time, we just CANT save everyone everywhere, as we don't have the resources or political support from the citizens. This is going to come across as naive but fuck it:
-We should be dropping food/medicine/water to the refugee camps around Syria. Maybe send medical aide and a few troops (?).
-We should create our own refugee camps, at the very least, to give people the basic necessities of life.

I think the distinction here is that for crises, especially those that we had some part in creating, we should step up. These crises need to be defined as "temporary" in some way, although I am not sure how.

And we aren't ready for it, but we need to get rid of this stupid muslim hatred too. Like I said, we aren't there yet...
Click to expand...
I'm not advocating saving everyone, everywhere though. I understand the confusion my original post caused. What I am getting at is we should care about what is happening in other countries, and even if as a country we don't do anything, as individuals I think showing compassion is important. And, to that end, I think our country can do things like you suggest, or even more minimal, to make a positive difference in the face of crises.

The Human Q-Tip said:
I'd agree with spending significant sums to help people in refugee camps or to settle them elsewhere. But I don't believe that our moral obligation extends to taking in significant numbers of people permanently. If this war ends, then they'll need folks to rebuild that country.

I'm simply thinking of @King Stannis thread about the long term issue migration from the Third World. Then are going to be some pretty horrible economic times. And if the criteria for entry becomes "no jobs/no future", that's an open door.

I think refugee status should be for war or persecution of specific religious/ethnic minorities. And when the war ends, the general rule should be going back home.
Click to expand...
The first paragraph makes sense to me. And honestly, while I disagree with the latter two, that framework does make sense also. I think th big thing is differentiating between refugees and migration. But, I don't necessarily think this war will be over as quickly as you think it will. Assad and his cronies cannot rule Syria. It isn't feasible. Even with Russian and Iranian support most Syrians do not support him and/or have fled. The rebels won't win with Russia backing Assad, either. So it is bound to continue, to some degree, for another few years. Hence why I think it is important to incorporate refugees into whatever country they are going to as best as possible. Treating them as second-class citizens is a recipe for long-term problems.
 
jking948 said:
I'm not advocating saving everyone, everywhere though. I understand the confusion my original post caused. What I am getting at is we should care about what is happening in other countries, and even if as a country we don't do anything, as individuals I think showing compassion is important. And, to that end, I think our country can do things like you suggest, or even more minimal, to make a positive difference in the face of crises.


The first paragraph makes sense to me. And honestly, while I disagree with the latter two, that framework does make sense also. I think th big thing is differentiating between refugees and migration. But, I don't necessarily think this war will be over as quickly as you think it will. Assad and his cronies cannot rule Syria. It isn't feasible. Even with Russian and Iranian support most Syrians do not support him and/or have fled. The rebels won't win with Russia backing Assad, either. So it is bound to continue, to some degree, for another few years. Hence why I think it is important to incorporate refugees into whatever country they are going to as best as possible. Treating them as second-class citizens is a recipe for long-term problems.
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Bro, I appreciate you and agree. We need to care, as citizens. I love talking to people about these matters, and am happy to really listen, even to opinions that I don't agree with. As I say, the opposite of love isn't hate, it's apathy. I don't think you caused confusion, I was just on my soapbox.

I am unsure about a refugee program and how it should work. I agree that they aren't second class people, but I don't envision that it will fly that they would be (literally) citizens either.

I just can't believe that we have come so far from our collective American roots, particularly the mid 1800s until... Maybe 1980? I think this is a fun, instructive, quickie on it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_immigration_to_the_United_States#Immigration_1850_to_1930

So here we are, a melting pot that doesn't want any more ingredients. It's like we don't remember our 1st gen grandparents, or we do, but all we remember is that the house was smelly but not that the door was always open.
 
Lol each generation of America on a didn't want more immigrants coming after them, from the original colonialists onward. America was a melting pot but that didn't mean everyone got along or wanted more. So as for America losing that ' spirit', well, that spirit resided largely in the immediate immigrant groups and usually was gone by the 3rd generation.
 
You all know me as being anti-partisan. So, this is not par for the course coming from a Fox News devotee: Obama fucked up big time. His entire foreign policy has been an utter catastrophe across the board. He has no doctrine, nor even a strategy in place beyond reacting to events as they unfold with poorly chosen tactics. Had we not idiotically inserted ourselves in the war, Assad probably would have won by now. Conversely, had we come down hard on Assad with a well-planned and articulated plan to ensure a rebel victory, then the rebels would have won. Instead we did the worst possible thing by doing neither and prolonged the suffering.

The result is a hellish, bloody nightmare. Since Obama is unwilling to do anything about the mess he helped exacerbate by his ill-conceived, limp-dick and not thought-out intervention, I have no problems with Russia doing what must be done. I disagree with @jking948 that a Ba'athist regime cannot rule in Syria after the guns fall silent. Assad can and will, but you, I and everyone else will not like the methods. This too is part of the price the Syrian people will pay because Barack Obama has no fucking clue what to about that nation but stuck our nose in it anyway. Let this be a lesson: Never elect an amateur with little policy experience President. Lack of experience and knowledge shows the most in situations where there are numerous actors with differing agendas engaged in activities that cannot be controlled but merely managed. Even though @gourimoko worked on Obama's campaign, I think even he would agree at this point.

As the US is very culpable in the slaughter going on, as penance for the stupidity and apathy of our inadequate Commander-in-Chief, who never met a war he could be bothered to formulate a winning policy for, the US should immediately offer to permanently resettle 350,000 Syrian refugees. @The Human Q-Tip may disagree with me, but it is the honorable thing to do. It is our duty to do something to atone for our mistakes.
 
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King Stannis said:
@The Human Q-Tip may disagree with me, but it is the honorable thing to do. It is our duty to do something to atone for our mistakes.
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Not sure why me and other taxpayers should pay for his fuckup, while he gets rewarded by being allowed to take in more refugees. That's like buying dinner for the guy who just beat the shit out of you.

To the extent we deserve blame, I'd limit it to however much the support we did give prolonged the struggle. Honestly, I'm not sure how much that is because us bombing ISIS did help Assad's regime even if other actions we took hurt it. And even if we should have intervened more decisively early on - which is debatable - I don't think we owe a moral debt to anyone by choosing not to.

To the extent we do take in more refugees, we should limit it to moderate rebels who we supported and then abandoned, and to Christians in the region in areas where religious persecution is bad. The former because the fault on our end is more direct, and the latter because it's a long-term problem that doesn't look like it will end anytime soon.
 
King Stannis said:
The result is a hellish, bloody nightmare. Since Obama is unwilling to do anything about the mess he helped exacerbate by his ill-conceived, limp-dick and not thought-out intervention, I have no problems with Russia doing what must be done. I disagree with @jking948 that a Ba'athist regime cannot rule in Syria after the guns fall silent. Assad can and will, but you, I and everyone else will not like the methods. This too is part of the price the Syrian people will pay because Barack Obama has no fucking clue what to about that nation but stuck our nose in it anyway. Let this be a lesson: Never elect an amateur with little policy experience President. Lack of experience and knowledge shows the most in situations where there are numerous actors with differing agendas engaged in activities that cannot be controlled but merely managed. Even though @gourimoko worked on Obama's campaign, I think even he would agree at this point.
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My view isn't that Assad "technically" can't rule Syria. I think, short-term, we're headed that route. But most refugees will opt not to return to Syria, the institutions will remain depleted, and Assad's main support base in the pre-war regime -- the upper business class -- will need to re-gain their money. So he will be ruling over a country without nearly as many people, where he doesn't have a support base, and where ISIS still exists. It's a recipe for another war over a short period of time: i.e., something like Sudan or Yemen.
 
natedagg said:
So here we are, a melting pot that doesn't want any more ingredients.
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In all seriousness, the trend in teaching has been to move away from the "melting pot" model, and instead endorse multiculturalism.
 
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