• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

Climate Change Thread

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
This is a very misleading story about a power purchase contract between Solar One and Berkshire Hathaway. Essentially one solar farm has made an incredibly aggressive bid to undercut the cost of traditional power plants in Nevada, likely selling at a loss for the next few years and hoping to break even or make a small profit on the back end of the contract as costs continue to decrease. And none of this targets the fact that solar panels currently cost an average of $.30 per kWh across the nation.

I get people want to cherry pick things like this and try to blow the results out of proportion, but the technology isn't there. Is it getting better? Absolutely. But your narrative that it's already competitive is 100% false.

EDIT: I'm walking back on previous assertions made in this post, and going to confine it to this.

First of all, solar power is being used at such a small scale in this country that it's absolutely reasonable to cherry pick places to rapidly adopt it.

Secondly, the case I linked earlier isn't the only one where it's not just competitive with burning coal, it is significantly cheaper. Here's another one

According to Khalil Shalabi, Austin Energy's vice president of resource planning, the utility received offers for 7,976 megawatts of projects after issuing a request for bids in April. Out of those bids, 1,295 megawatts of projects were priced below 4 cents per kilowatt-hour.

"The technology is getting better and the prices are decreasing with time," said Shalabi during a presentation in front of the Austin city council last week.

(clip)

In March of last year, Recurrent Energy signed a 25-year dealwith Austin Energy to deliver electricity from a 150-megawatt solar plant for just under 5 cents per kilowatt-hour. It was a landmark contract. But today, more than a thousand megawatts of projects are coming in for 20 percent cheaper.

(clip)

Yes, solar prices are coming down so quickly that a 5-cent contract can induce buyer's remorse.

http://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...rgy-gets-1.2-gigawatts-of-solar-bids-for-less
 
I think what a lot of us want is not to make people change over. We want the gov to stop subsidizing the coal and oil industries and start subsidizing renewable research.

People act like that is a dumb move when we know it is the future. It's the roadblocks to progress that go up that are so frustrating, not the fact that we will still need fossil fuels for the near future.
 
To add to what I said above, at least in austin, the issue isn't is solar cheaper than what it's replacing, because it already is. Instead they are wondering if it's even cheaper to wait for the prices to fall further to 2 cents kWh in just a few years.
 
To add to what I said above, at least in austin, the issue isn't is solar cheaper than what it's replacing, because it already is. Instead they are wondering if it's even cheaper to wait for the prices to fall further to 2 cents kWh in just a few years.

Wait, so they don't want to be first movers?
 
Wait, so they don't want to be first movers?

they are the first movers, they just aren't moving as quickly as they could vs fossil fuels because the competition is rapidly switching from existing fossil fuels to even lower future costs of solar energy.
 
To add to what I said above, at least in austin, the issue isn't is solar cheaper than what it's replacing, because it already is. Instead they are wondering if it's even cheaper to wait for the prices to fall further to 2 cents kWh in just a few years.

First, I really don't know what point you're arguing... I've said all along that when the industry is actually price competitive and ready to change, it would happen. In a sense, you're arguing that that's validated? Anyhow...
There are some issues that are still not being addressed... Large companies are routinely contracting fossil fuel energy anywhere from .05 to .10 cents a kWh. Solar companies NEED to beat that number to get a contract, no one is moving if it's larger. Those power companies typically only contract a year out at a time to adjust their prices based on the cost of coal. The solar initiatives are typically asking for companies to contract between 20-30 years. Why? Because they are banking on Moore's Law to hold true (cited above) and make their money on the back end of their contract.

Operating at a short term loss is still a successful move for these companies, because they can go to banks for loans, and show good faith in the business they have established. Also, cash flow is always good, even if the bottom line is negative. Anyone in the solar industry today NEEDS to find a way to compete. They can't simply say "Sorry we're too expensive. Do you want to invest because environment?" The sales pitch needs to be better. So now these companies are saying "We promise a set price for 25 years that's cheaper than what you can get this year on natural resources." Great! Those prices typically climb over time (very slowly, less than the rate of inflation) but a price locked deal allows large companies to plan ahead without having to worry about a variable outside of their control.

All of these solar plants are in Nevada, Texas, the middle East... You know what they have in common? Lots of sun. The rest of the country can't be that aggressive. And the raw costs of producing said electrical energy still run those companies upwards of .15 to .18 cents per kWh. It takes a heady businessman to operate at a loss like that, while also keeping in mind how much they'll have to pour into new product over the next decade, just to get the costs to a point they can turn an annual profit on the back end.

And yet, all of this is great news. It stands my point. Once it is actually cost effective to make the change, we will. Some solar companies are going for broke to secure that (and if you look into that Nevada firm which signed on with Berkshire, you'll see they have a history of a contentious relationship with the primary power supply who has tried to regulate them out of the state and failed, it seems personal) and hopefully they succeed! There's a chance they fail, but their failure will still eventually pave the path for success in the industry.

We will get there, it will happen, but I would still heavily wager on the process taking much longer than CNBC or greentechmedia.com would like to accept.
 
And yet, all of this is great news. It stands my point. Once it is actually cost effective to make the change, we will.

And my point is that the climate issues should give us incentive as a society to expedite the time table of making it cost effective to switch.

If it is going to continue to follow exponential growth, which is expected, investing more resources to accelerate that growth rate has exponential returns on both the investment and the environment.
 
And yet, all of this is great news. It stands my point. Once it is actually cost effective to make the change, we will. Some solar companies are going for broke to secure that (and if you look into that Nevada firm which signed on with Berkshire, you'll see they have a history of a contentious relationship with the primary power supply who has tried to regulate them out of the state and failed, it seems personal) and hopefully they succeed! There's a chance they fail, but their failure will still eventually pave the path for success in the industry.

We will get there, it will happen, but I would still heavily wager on the process taking much longer than CNBC or greentechmedia.com would like to accept.
Of course. But will also be way too late by then for reasons not relating to the economics of it. That's the whole problem.
 
Of course. But will also be way too late by then for reasons not relating to the economics of it. That's the whole problem.

By what account? It's already too late, the temperature will be rising for the next 100 years minimum. At this point, we need to start developing ways to harvest carbon out of the atmosphere to actually dent man-made climate change. (A technology currently in development btw)

Everyone here is acting like the environment should be saved at all costs, economics be damned, but it's not that easy. Energy is a trillion dollar industry globally, literally every country is tied to it. By making drastic changes to that system without regard for future impact to the global economy is rash. What would be better? a 2100 where we have 5% unemployment, a continuously growing economy, and great benefits for all American workers, where the temperature is 5*C higher than it was in 1990, or one where we are in the greatest depression this country has ever seen, rampant unemployment, a debt which can't be sustained by our GDP a la Greece, and a temperature 4*C higher than it was in 1990?

My argument is fundamentally that economics over time bears for the greater good of mankind despite there being plenty of instances where it fails us in the short term. Global warming needs to be a long play here. I might be on a different side of this argument if I thought we'd be burning coal at the same rate we are now in 100 years, but that's not what's going to happen. Energy companies deal in the billions of dollars, the very second someone figures out how to stay profitable and be able to undercut the cost of fossil fuels, they will make a fortune. That's why there's already an arms race in the energy field, one every company involved in the power industry is already taking a part in. We'll be adapting to renewable energy soon, as soon as the market can bear it, and it will ultimately benefit us, despite the transition taking 10 years longer than many impatient people want.

Look, there are times the government should put money into certain systems which benefit everyone long term which no private company would have a vested stake in. The obvious example is roads and highways: Great for all industries, no one industry would fund it. There are others: the space program, fundamental research grants, police and fire, etc. But all of those have a very important common thread: There is little incentive in the private market for them. That isn't true at all in this case: The private industry is highly incentivized to solve this issue, there's great profit in it. We don't need to add money to research, that money is already available and very plentiful. I also think substantial taxes on fossil fuels (which I think is the angle KI has been getting at) is a terrible plan, as it would reduce the cost of fossil fuels to competitors overseas, and artificially raise the cost of production across all industries here. We aren't in a 1995 economy, our unemployment is low, but wages are stuck. People are still widely under-employed. I don't think our market would bear a volatile shakeup well, companies have been incredibly skittish in their hiring practices over things like the civil war in Syria which should have little affect over energy supply and our market.

EDIT @KI4MVP
And my point is that the climate issues should give us incentive as a society to expedite the time table of making it cost effective to switch.

If it is going to continue to follow exponential growth, which is expected, investing more resources to accelerate that growth rate has exponential returns on both the investment and the environment.

This is vague, I'll be honest I still don't understand your point. I'll look at 4 ways this could be interpreted, tell me if I'm still missing it.

1. We could fund research in the field. - I would vehemently argue that any additional funding would make little, if any, impact in process development. The technology is following Moore's Law currently, and that's because we already understand how to make things more efficient, we just need to continue to refine and develop the system each year. More money doesn't speed up the process, we couldn't invent a 4.8kHz processor in 1990 with more funding, we just needed time. That is true here as well: For solar panels to become more efficient and cost effective they need more time to develop.

2. We could further subsidize the industry- We are already subsidizing solar at a high level, and I'm not sure what returns we're seeing from that. We're pouring millions of tax dollars into an industry that even with that extra money isn't yet competitive. Each tax dollar spent in this way isn't going towards our debt which would reduce our long term interest rates, and it's not staying in tax payer's hands, which would circle back into the economy. It is being used to buoy a system that, as of now, can't quite stand on it's own.

3. We can increase taxes on fossil fuels- By doing this, we increase the cost of energy nationwide, which affects every industry. If we did it to the point of driving those industries out of business to create a vacuum renewable energy could enter into, we'd cause massive job loss, reduce the cost of raw materials to international competitors, and run a more inefficient system nationally than most of the rest of the developed world for the next 10 years.

4. Build an infrastructure for installing solar energy- No one wants that infrastructure yet, and there's not even a consensus on how to install it. Is the long game that everyone has their own solar panels? Are we going to transition into a DC home system? Who bears that cost, is the government going to come rewire my house for me, or am I going to be expected to put 10k into it? Think of highways and roadways. Cars in the 1920s largely traveled on graveled or brick roads. Had we decided to implore a highway system then to get ahead of our competitors, we'd have built a much more expensive network with a product that would soon be considered inferior to advancements in asphalt production. I'd argue the same is true here: The solar panels today are not the solar panels of tomorrow. We should wait to install the cheaper, more efficient panels which are coming down the pipeline. And the best part about that? The government won't need to buy them. Lincoln Electric will buy them, GE will buy them, Edison will buy them. Or you'll go out and buy them and maintain them yourself, all because it will be cost effective for everyone to do so.
 
Last edited:
@MalTalm

The temperature is rising already so don't do anything and leave our grandchildren to deal with the mess? Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds? A 5 degree celsius increase in temperature would have a massive world wide impact who's cost in terms of human life and economic upheaval dwarfs by orders of magnitude anything we would have to do today to turn that around. Massive numbers of people will die from the heat, regions of the world will be too hot to sustain human life and coastal cities will be under water.

to your points

1. Moore's law is simply another way to say exponential growth. That growth absolutely depends on funding to drive the research. It's absurd to think the exponential growth is at a fixed rate that can't be accelerated with more resources for R&D.

2. the incentives are a drop in the bucket relative to the magnitude of the problem and the size of the energy industry.

3. I wouldn't increase taxes on fossil fuels. I really don't know why fossil fuels get subsidies and tax credits, though.

4. absolutely transition to DC power. This will take some new standards. But otherwise isn't all that complicated. In fact, this is probably the easiest part of the puzzle to solve.

Imagine outlets like this were common

usb-outlet-12-04-09.jpg


Do you have any trouble figuring out what to do if you saw this? Or what to do different if you saw an outlet without the USB connectors? Just expand on that concept to handle more devices than USB supports with one or two higher powered DC connector standards. It would be more convenient for everyone. Having the standards now means homes with build in DC current can be wired up for those standards instead of doing a ridiculous conversion to AC to send power to devices that just convert it back to DC.
 
@MalTalm

The temperature is rising already so don't do anything and leave our grandchildren to deal with the mess? Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds? A 5 degree celsius increase in temperature would have a massive world wide impact who's cost in terms of human life and economic upheaval dwarfs by orders of magnitude anything we would have to do today to turn that around. Massive numbers of people will die from the heat, regions of the world will be too hot to sustain human life and coastal cities will be under water.

to your points

1. Moore's law is simply another way to say exponential growth. That growth absolutely depends on funding to drive the research. It's absurd to think the exponential growth is at a fixed rate that can't be accelerated with more resources for R&D.

2. the incentives are a drop in the bucket relative to the magnitude of the problem and the size of the energy industry.

3. I wouldn't increase taxes on fossil fuels. I really don't know why fossil fuels get subsidies and tax credits, though.

4. absolutely transition to DC power. This will take some new standards. But otherwise isn't all that complicated. In fact, this is probably the easiest part of the puzzle to solve.

Imagine outlets like this were common

usb-outlet-12-04-09.jpg


Do you have any trouble figuring out what to do if you saw this? Or what to do different if you saw an outlet without the USB connectors? Just expand on that concept to handle more devices than USB supports with one or two higher powered DC connector standards. It would be more convenient for everyone. Having the standards now means homes with build in DC current can be wired up for those standards instead of doing a ridiculous conversion to AC to send power to devices that just convert it back to DC.
Is your house powered by solar?
 
I think the first step is the lowest hanging fruit: heat. Heat is the bastard child of energy, no? It's "cheap" and mostly a byproduct, right?
So before we get all crazy and power the world with solar, why aren't we heating our showers and homes with solar and geothermal? This isn't a rhetorical question. We had family friends (Alaska, 1992) with a large black bladder that was used as a shower (this was July tho), but why isn't it pervasive?
 
Oh and if you want a good place to start saving $ by being green, I recommend a free home energy audit. I had 2 done for my new house then combined recommendations.
 
@MalTalm

The temperature is rising already so don't do anything and leave our grandchildren to deal with the mess? Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds? A 5 degree celsius increase in temperature would have a massive world wide impact who's cost in terms of human life and economic upheaval dwarfs by orders of magnitude anything we would have to do today to turn that around. Massive numbers of people will die from the heat, regions of the world will be too hot to sustain human life and coastal cities will be under water.

to your points

1. Moore's law is simply another way to say exponential growth. That growth absolutely depends on funding to drive the research. It's absurd to think the exponential growth is at a fixed rate that can't be accelerated with more resources for R&D.

2. the incentives are a drop in the bucket relative to the magnitude of the problem and the size of the energy industry.

3. I wouldn't increase taxes on fossil fuels. I really don't know why fossil fuels get subsidies and tax credits, though.

4. absolutely transition to DC power. This will take some new standards. But otherwise isn't all that complicated. In fact, this is probably the easiest part of the puzzle to solve.

Imagine outlets like this were common

usb-outlet-12-04-09.jpg


Do you have any trouble figuring out what to do if you saw this? Or what to do different if you saw an outlet without the USB connectors? Just expand on that concept to handle more devices than USB supports with one or two higher powered DC connector standards. It would be more convenient for everyone. Having the standards now means homes with build in DC current can be wired up for those standards instead of doing a ridiculous conversion to AC to send power to devices that just convert it back to DC.

I'll be completely honest, we're probably much closer on this topic than it seems. We just have one major point of contention: You think it is the government's job to pour tons of tax money into the system to stimulate a change in the energy market, and I believe that change is already coming naturally and the natural progression would be better for our economy with a minor effect long term on the environment. I would posit that potentially disrupting our economy to inflate such a massive but unprepared sector in the energy market could be much more harmful than the effect on the environment long term.

I feel I've stated my side, so I'm going to walk away at this point, but I absolutely respect your stance on this. I will leave with a couple things though: Your understanding of Moore's law is incorrect: It is exponential growth, but there was literally nothing we could have done over the past 20 years to increase the speed of advancements in electronics. The amount of research money in the field had hit capacity, and short of innovative breakthroughs, the refinement process moved as fast as possible. The same is happening in the solar industry now, and thus short of innovative breakthroughs, we can't speed up the process by throwing money at it.

Also, we've already fucked the environment. Truth is, it was fucked years ago, and it's far better to be proactive than reactive. If you want to fund research, fund future technology needed to extract carbon from the atmosphere and store it in the Earth. (A necessity.) Begin to install systems to help those who will be in places likely to be heavily affected by climate change, and begin moving people where it isn't cost effective. An expensive, reactive position to try and curb damage this late in the game isn't going to do much, we need to accept the repercussions we will face, and deal with them appropriately. And it's important to note that it's not really anyone's fault. By the time we had keyed in on global warming, it was too late. We acted appropriately in many ways, and immediately turned our attention on alternative sources of energy, which has brought us to where we are now: Alternative energy is on the cusp of being cost effective. That will happen naturally in the next 10 years, and spending lots of tax money to try and move that time table up 3-4 years will not have a significant impact on our climate over the next century, but it can absolutely disrupt our economy.

Just know you and I want the same future, I just think we're already on that path and it will occur without government intervention, and that will be much better for our country and the world as a whole.
 
Personally i am doing my part to help out and see if there is true man made climate change. Any good scientific theory needs to be proven. Part of that proof is having a control group that does not change habits.

I am the control group.
 

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-14: "Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:14: " Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey."
Top