Cleveland Browns Quarterback Position

AZ_ said:

No...it's not easy to tell from the game film. And you don't call audibles in the fucking preseason in your first action...

Christ.


Kizer opens up more of your playbook because he can

1. Run
2. Move in the pocket
3. Is not awful

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If you have the playbook down enough and the coaches trust you enough you are going to be allowed to audibles regardless of how long you have played in the NFL. Osweiler has free reign to change the plays at the line of scrimmage so he has the coaches trust when it comes to that. The question is can he make the throws needed and the jury will be out on Monday night since we really didn't see enough of Osweiler in the first preseason game to pass along an unbiased verdict. Kizer did all those throws against what is likely the worst defensive unit in the NFL so we need to see him against a better unit. I mean Mullaney was a 4.7 speed coming out of college and got behind the defender easily. Payton is not a burner either and blew by the guy. None of those guys playing on that defense will see a snap in the NFL this season, so we need to see more of both guys before we can truly make a judgement on either.

Also people really underestimate how athletic Osweiler is. In drills and times Kizer and Osweiler will put up about the same numbers. No matter what Osweiler has done in the past, you still have to give him the 2nd preseason game before you judge how he will be in Cleveland. Kizer down the line should be the better QB, but right now we have to play the one who can win us games regardless of the persons name and their past. Both QBs did a shitty job at times last season, so if we are going by last season then both of them are terrible and shouldnt be in the NFL.

The Oi said:

Since when has the game slowed down for Osweiler?

He does everything wrong.

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Kizer recently tripped over his offensive lineman after taking a snap under center in practice. If that were on Sunday, it would be a gif some Browns fans use the rest of his stay in Cleveland. So, I'm just suggesting that a bridge QB who isn't very good has some use if Kizer isn't ready... because everything we hear out of Barea suggests they aren't in a rush.

You can watch all the preseason football you want, audibles aren't going to be a big part of anyone's game plan.

Tagging a rookie QB for not calling them during the preseason is just a terrible take.

AZ_ said:

You can watch all the preseason football you want, audibles aren't going to be a big part of anyone's game plan.

Tagging a rookie QB for not calling them during the preseason is just a terrible take.

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Terrible takes also come from being biased and not even giving people a chance. I mean we all know your favorite guy on the team is Peppers since you hated him more than anyone else in the draft! So I guess we both know what the definition of terrible takes are.

Either way Osweiler has been given free reign of the offense while Kizer has not been yet at all and even if he starts, he will not have it anytime soon.

Randolphkeys said:

Kizer recently tripped over his offensive lineman after taking a snap under center in practice. If that were on Sunday, it would be a gif some Browns fans use the rest of his stay in Cleveland. So, I'm just suggesting that a bridge QB who isn't very good has some use if Kizer isn't ready... because everything we hear out of Barea suggests they aren't in a rush.

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I wasn't even comparing Kizer and Osweiler. I was just making the point that Osweiler sucks.

The Oi said:

I wasn't even comparing Kizer and Osweiler. I was just making the point that Osweiler sucks.

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What you say is factual and correct, but five years from now I want Kizer to be the QB I believe he can be. If that means the Browns suck one more month as he gets ready, I'm willing to be patient. I've been patient since the fucking 1980s.

Let's see how Osweiler does on Monday since that is his shot to win out the QB position pretty much. (Most of you on here would call him terrible if he throws 30+ TDs this season and we win the super bowl so that is an extremely biased opinion if I ever heard one)

sportscoach said:

Let's see how Osweiler does on Monday since that is his shot to win out the QB position pretty much. (Most of you on here would call him terrible if he throws 30+ TDs this season and we win the super bowl so that is an extremely biased opinion if I ever heard one)

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No one would say he's terrible if he did that. Everyone here is making reasonable projections based off his body of work and the skill(or lack thereof) he is currently demonstrating. I just want a good quarterback and I don't care who that is.

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sportscoach said:

Let's see how Osweiler does on Monday since that is his shot to win out the QB position pretty much. (Most of you on here would call him terrible if he throws 30+ TDs this season and we win the super bowl so that is an extremely biased opinion if I ever heard one)

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He will suck.

I'm hoping Hue lets Kizer play a couple snaps vs NYG's starters's and the majority of their 2's. When he looks better than Osweiler, you start him the 3rd preseason game @ Tampa Bay and give him the opportunity to outright win the job for the regular season.

If he flops, he needs more time.

batdan said:

No one would say he's terrible if he did that. Everyone here is making reasonable projections based off his body of work and the skill(or lack thereof) he is currently demonstrating. I just want a good quarterback and I don't care who that is.

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Some of these guys would still call him terrible even if he did that. Some want Kizer to start regardless of he is actually ready or not though and that is part of the issue. This season they have to do better, but is still a rebuilding year so there is a lot of back and forth on what to do. We still need to see Monday's game since Osweiler either has to show he can run the 1st string offense with good flow and score points or he shouldn't be our starter. Kizer needs to show that he can do that type of offense against a better defense since the Saints defense is horrid!

getBUCKED said:

I'm hoping Hue lets Kizer play a couple snaps vs NYG's starters's and the majority of their 2's. When he looks better than Osweiler, you start him the 3rd preseason game @ Tampa Bay and give him the opportunity to outright win the job for the regular season.

If he flops, he needs more time.

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I think we need to see Kizer against 1st stringers sometime this offseason and see what he is made of myself. If Osweiler though really does a good job against the Giants we may not see it though.

Chris said:

Are we going to be trotting out the Tim Couch analogy ten years from now still? Plenty of guys start from day one and turn out fine.

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Plenty of guys are even given a few weeks to wait and still prove to be not at all ready.

Quarterbacks since 2003, drafted #52 or higher, who started 9+ games as a rookie:

Week 1 starters in italics

Winners (10)

• Jameis Winston - probably?
• Marcus Mariota - probably?
• Derek Carr
• Andrew Luck
• Andy Dalton - Meh
• Cam Newton
• Matt Stafford - 3rd rate starter
• Matt Ryan
• Joe Flacco -3rd rate starter
• Ben Roethlisberger

Questionable (4)

• Carson Wentz - jury out
• Teddy Bridgewater - Injured
• Ryan Tannehill - mediocre at best?
• Sam Bradford - Borderline starter

Losers (12)

• Blake Bortles - fraud
• Geno Smith - backup material
• EJ Manuel - backup material
• Robert Griffin III - Unemployed
• Brandon Weeden - 3rd string garbage
• Blaine Gabbert - nope
• Christian Ponder - nope
• Jimmy Claussen - gone
• Josh Freeman - out of the league
• Mark Sanchez - Garbage
• Vince Young - Out of the league
• Matt Leinart - Out of the league

Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2003 Who Were Held Back as Rookies:

Winners (3)

• Aaron Rodgers (0 rookie starts)
• Eli Manning (7 rookie starts)
• Philip Rivers (0 rookie starts)

Questionable (3)

• Alex Smith (7 rookie starts, 136 career starts)
• Jay Cutler (6 rookie starts, 139 career starts)
• Jared Goff (7 rookie starts)
• Paxton Lynch (2 rookie starts)

Losers (11)

• Johnny Manziel (2 rookie starts, 8 career starts, out of the league)
• Jake Locker (0 rookie starts, 23 career starts, retired due to injuries)
• Colin Kaepernick (0 rookie starts, 58 career starts, it's complicated)
• Tim Tebow (3 rookie starts, 16 career starts, out of the league)
• JaMarcus Russell (1 rookie start, 25 career starts, out of the league)
• Brady Quinn (0 rookie starts, 20 career starts, out of the league)
• Kevin Kolb (0 rookie starts, 21 career starts)
• Drew Stanton (0 rookie starts, 14 career starts)
• Kellen Clemens (0 rookie starts, 21 career starts)
• Jason Campbell (7 rookie starts, 79 career starts)
• JP Losman (0 rookie starts, 33 career starts)

Guys Who Are Still Being Held Back

• Christian Hackenburg (has been unable to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, and Bryce Petty)

Guys Who Never Made It (<8 career starts)

• Pat White
• John Beck

What we see here is that since 2006 there isn't been a single successful quarterback who was held back significantly during his rookie year. You have to go back over 10 years to find an instance of this turning out well for a high pick. This strongly suggests that quarterbacks who aren't deemed ready as rookies are highly unlikely to ever break through. I'll note that the 3 who DID achieve this all did so behind Hall of Fame level quarterbacks (Favre, Brees, Warner), and the vast majority of the failures had no such high level quarterback.

There's also this: Even among quarterbacks who start a significant number of games as a rookie, there are more failures than successes. We will never know if starting as rookies "before they were ready" stopped them from realizing their potential.

Other notes: DeShone Kizer is only 21. The only 2nd rounders to start in Week 1 among the players I looked at were Andy Dalton and Derek Carr who were both 23 years old when drafted. Winston and Mariota were 21 and have found early success as immediate starters, but they were #1 and #2 overall picks. There haven't been many 21 year old quarterbacks. Rodgers and Alex Smith were 21 year olds who were not thrust immediately into the starting job and ended up alright. Gabbert and Freeman were made starters as rookies, and it turned out badly for them. Jared Goff will be an interesting case.

I sincerely hope to see Kizer by Week 5, ideally not earlier than week 3.

Matches said:

Plenty of guys are even given a few weeks to wait and still prove to be not at all ready.

Quarterbacks since 2003, drafted #52 or higher, who started 9+ games as a rookie:

Week 1 starters in italics

Winners (10)

• Jameis Winston - probably?
• Marcus Mariota - probably?
• Derek Carr
• Andrew Luck
• Andy Dalton - Meh
• Cam Newton
• Matt Stafford - 3rd rate starter
• Matt Ryan
• Joe Flacco -3rd rate starter
• Ben Roethlisberger

Questionable (4)

• Carson Wentz - jury out
• Teddy Bridgewater - Injured
• Ryan Tannehill - mediocre at best?
• Sam Bradford - Borderline starter

Losers (12)

• Blake Bortles - fraud
• Geno Smith - backup material
• EJ Manuel - backup material
• Robert Griffin III - Unemployed
• Brandon Weeden - 3rd string garbage
• Blaine Gabbert - nope
• Christian Ponder - nope
• Jimmy Claussen - gone
• Josh Freeman - out of the league
• Mark Sanchez - Garbage
• Vince Young - Out of the league
• Matt Leinart - Out of the league

Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2003 Who Were Held Back as Rookies:

Winners (3)

• Aaron Rodgers (0 rookie starts)
• Eli Manning (7 rookie starts)
• Philip Rivers (0 rookie starts)

Questionable (3)

• Alex Smith (7 rookie starts, 136 career starts)
• Jay Cutler (6 rookie starts, 139 career starts)
• Jared Goff (7 rookie starts)
• Paxton Lynch (2 rookie starts)

Losers (11)

• Johnny Manziel (2 rookie starts, 8 career starts, out of the league)
• Jake Locker (0 rookie starts, 23 career starts, retired due to injuries)
• Colin Kaepernick (0 rookie starts, 58 career starts, it's complicated)
• Tim Tebow (3 rookie starts, 16 career starts, out of the league)
• JaMarcus Russell (1 rookie start, 25 career starts, out of the league)
• Brady Quinn (0 rookie starts, 20 career starts, out of the league)
• Kevin Kolb (0 rookie starts, 21 career starts)
• Drew Stanton (0 rookie starts, 14 career starts)
• Kellen Clemens (0 rookie starts, 21 career starts)
• Jason Campbell (7 rookie starts, 79 career starts)
• JP Losman (0 rookie starts, 33 career starts)

Guys Who Are Still Being Held Back

• Christian Hackenburg (has been unable to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, and Bryce Petty)

Guys Who Never Made It (<8 career starts)

• Pat White
• John Beck

What we see here is that since 2006 there isn't been a single successful quarterback who was held back significantly during his rookie year. You have to go back over 10 years to find an instance of this turning out well for a high pick. This strongly suggests that quarterbacks who aren't deemed ready as rookies are highly unlikely to ever break through. I'll note that the 3 who DID achieve this all did so behind Hall of Fame level quarterbacks (Favre, Brees, Warner), and the vast majority of the failures had no such high level quarterback.

There's also this: Even among quarterbacks who start a significant number of games as a rookie, there are more failures than successes. We will never know if starting as rookies "before they were ready" stopped them from realizing their potential.

Other notes: DeShone Kizer is only 21. The only 2nd rounders to start in Week 1 among the players I looked at were Andy Dalton and Derek Carr who were both 23 years old when drafted. Winston and Mariota were 21 and have found early success as immediate starters, but they were #1 and #2 overall picks. There haven't been many 21 year old quarterbacks. Rodgers and Alex Smith were 21 year olds who were not thrust immediately into the starting job and ended up alright. Gabbert and Freeman were made starters as rookies, and it turned out badly for them. Jared Goff will be an interesting case.

I sincerely hope to see Kizer by Week 5, ideally not earlier than week 3.

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Though we also have to look at the way they used to draft and the way we draft now. We draft QBs so much higher than they did in the past. Every single season QBs are stretched for in the draft and we give up on them way easier than then as well. Since guys like Steve Young were horrible in their first couple seasons. Go look at his numbers for Tampa Bay. In this day and age he would have not ever been a Hall of Famer. Also like any other position rounds don't always mean anything since we have multiple guys who were drafted after the first round who ended up doing very well. Russell Wilson won the job out of camp and guys like Kirk Cousins were also held back as a rookie. We are quick to fire coaches and give up on players since this era is what have you done for me lately type of attitude.


Also do a percentage of guys who were played as a rookie over the years who were drafted and played a lot in their first season? There isn't all that many that actually get to play as a rookie and usually those guys 9 times out of 10 end up on a shitty team with little or no support and new coaches/2nd year coaches. How many rookie QBs start on a winning team the season before vs the number start on a bad team the season before and do the % of guys who actually become legitimate NFL QBs?

sportscoach said:

Also like any other position rounds don't always mean anything since we have multiple guys who were drafted after the first round who ended up doing very well. Russell Wilson won the job out of camp and guys like Kirk Cousins were also held back as a rookie

Also do a percentage of guys who were played as a rookie over the years who were drafted and played a lot in their first season? There isn't all that many that actually get to play as a rookie and usually those guys 9 times out of 10 end up on a shitty team with little or no support and new coaches/2nd year coaches. How many rookie QBs start on a winning team the season before vs the number start on a bad team the season before and do the % of guys who actually become legitimate NFL QBs?

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Wilson, Cousins, and Prescott (if you buy into his 1 season) are literally the only 3rd round or later talents to have significant success since Tom Brady and Brady was 17 years ago.

The trend is indeed to select quarterbacks earlier. But is the argument that NFL people are people getting dumber? "Let's take quarterbacks super early and then throw them away like disposable wipes?" I don't know.

There are a lot of variables at play. On the one hand, with the bullshit offenses colleges run at even the highest levels, one would think that wise coaches would consider giving MORE time to quarterbacks to learn professional offenses, not less. On the other hand, I suspect that training and fitness at the college level has significantly improved over the last 20-30 years, and that quarterbacks are doing quite a bit less "growing into their bodies" than they used to. Meaning that physically they are much closer to a finished product than they were 2 decades ago.

The bottom line is that even though many draftees who fail early are jettisoned by their franchises, it's not like they are waived after 2 years (in most cases, sorry Johnny Manziel). They remain on the team for their rookie deal, they catch on elsewhere, and they continue to stink. Sanchez, Gabbert, Ponder. All top 12 picks who have been "learning the NFL game" for years now, Sanchez is the only one over 30, and not a single team would dream of making them their starting quarterback.

One thing they do have in common is that although they were high picks, they were not the first quarterback taken in their draft. It is not difficult to imagine that teams needing a "franchise quarterback" then overdraft late 1st or 2nd round talent because they feel they need to grab one. So they take the 2nd or 3rd best guy after the true #1 went off the board. Stafford > Sanchez. Newton > Locker/Gabbert/Ponder. This was probably also the case with Tannehill being sloppy thirds behind Luck and Griffin.

Line play should be nice and sloppy for the starters.

-Joe Thomas out, per his schedule.
-Rookie Rod Johnson will start at LT.

-Joel Bitonio out with undisclosed injury(surprise!).
-Greco will start in his place.

Brock better keep his head on a swivel!