Who the fuck is gonna be the next pitcher to get 300 wins?
You're gonna be holding your breath for a while if that's what you're waiting for coach.
Probably won't ever see a 300 game winner again. Trevor Bauer is on pace to have roughly 16 wins this season, which will put him at 63 for his career.
He's 27 years old. He'd have to win between 18 and 19 games until he's 40 just to get to 300 wins for his career. He's won 17 games once and is on pace to finish two below his needed benchmark in the best season of his career.
The best pitcher of the 21st century (in my opinion), Clayton Kershaw, is sitting at 149 wins for his career. He has been hurt this year and currently has 5 wins on the year. Say he gets to 10 wins so he ends the year at 154 career wins.
He'll be 31 at the start of next season. Say he pitches until he's 40 years old, which is probably over-optimistic considering the way injuries are starting to hamper him. Kershaw would have to win between 16-17 games every year from now until his age 40 season just to hit that mark. Not happening.
I think the only chance is if you get a powerhouse dominating arm that breaks into the league at age 21-22 and has close to two decades of all-star production. If you pitch 20 years in the MLB, you'd only need to average 15 wins per season. Throw in a few years at your peak where you win 20-22 games per year, and you might have a chance. Guys don't pitch into their early-mid 40s anymore like Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Don Sutton, and Early Wynn did to get that 300-win mark.
Only current guy that I think has any chance in the world is Justin Verlander. He'll get over 200 this year and will be 36 at the start of next year. Say he finishes this year at 205. If he pitches until he's 42 and wins close to 16 games a year, he'd get there. Throw in a 20 win season with the Astros and he has to win even less games in his 40s.