2019 NBA Draft

Nathan S said:

There are a lot of guys who could claim to be the most unusual prospect in the draft, but he might top all of them. 7'3" and he may literally be the best shooter in the entire draft, which is just crazy. But he's an absolute twig and it's hard to imagine him holding up to any kind of physicality, let alone for an 82 game season. He's could be drafted anywhere from #4 to mid 20's, and I don't think that's an exaggeration.

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He'd probably get manhandled by those bigs that A.C refers to as mountain men. Can you imagine him trying to guard Steven Adams? But even with those concerns, it would be interesting to have a shot blocking center who could also stretch the floor. Here is an interesting read about trying to bulk up his father, it is old but I think its still relevant: https://people.com/archive/bulking-...me-for-trainer-mackie-shilstone-vol-26-no-17/

Nathan S said:

There are a lot of guys who could claim to be the most unusual prospect in the draft, but he might top all of them. 7'3" and he may literally be the best shooter in the entire draft, which is just crazy. But he's an absolute twig and it's hard to imagine him holding up to any kind of physicality, let alone for an 82 game season. He's could be drafted anywhere from #4 to mid 20's, and I don't think that's an exaggeration.

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I was at the first game Manute Bol played in Cleveland.

Cavs win the tip and immediately post Turpin up on Manute Bol. Turpin had his back to the basket and just backed right into Bol who moved back like his feet were in Crisco -- slid right back, Mel just backed his up with that fat butt. Then Mel turns and shoots -- and Bol swatted the shot away like King Kong slapping an airplane.

Last time they posted Mel up on Bol!

That might have been the most hilarious thing I ever saw at a Cavs game live.

Jalen Pickett in action on ESPNU. He's started to gain some traction as a serious prospect especially thanks to his 46/13 game a couple weeks ago, but my model has had him the top-rated prospect in the country pretty much all year (though that should be taken in context with his very weak strength of schedule). Old school pass-first point guard with a big, solid 6'4" frame that should continue to develop as he matures. He's taken a last-place Siena team and carried them to within touching distance of a conference championship.

Thybulle is a real talent. You couldn't build a better perimeter defender in a lab. Lateral quickness and reflexes of a point guard, great body control, great instincts, a 7-foot wingspan and elite athleticism. He's not much on offense, but he can finish strong, hit an open 3, and generally makes the right pass with good zip. Would seriously consider him with the Rockets pick, and I think he could be drafted even a bit higher than that.

Nathan S said:

Thybulle is a real talent. You couldn't build a better perimeter defender in a lab. Lateral quickness and reflexes of a point guard, great body control, great instincts, a 7-foot wingspan and elite athleticism. He's not much on offense, but he can finish strong, hit an open 3, and generally makes the right pass with good zip. Would seriously consider him with the Rockets pick, and I think he could be drafted even a bit higher than that.

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In the first half the season the Cavs just lacked competent players, as simple as that sounds. You see how much of a difference Love and Delly make when they're out there on the floor, even when they're not packing the stat line. There are a lot of players with that trait that should be available at the Houston pick. I like the first round depth of this class.

3 Ball...GOT IT said:

In the first half the season the Cavs just lacked competent players, as simple as that sounds. You see how much of a difference Love and Delly make when they're out there on the floor, even when they're not packing the stat line. There are a lot of players with that trait that should be available at the Houston pick. I like the first round depth of this class.

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Not sure any non-Zion outcomes would be as exciting as drafting Morant and Thybulle. Plenty of other good options, of course, but that backcourt would be a highlight machine.

Nathan S said:

Thybulle is a real talent. You couldn't build a better perimeter defender in a lab. Lateral quickness and reflexes of a point guard, great body control, great instincts, a 7-foot wingspan and elite athleticism. He's not much on offense, but he can finish strong, hit an open 3, and generally makes the right pass with good zip. Would seriously consider him with the Rockets pick, and I think he could be drafted even a bit higher than that.

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The only thing that makes me at all uneasy is his 3 PT shooting regresssion. Because even with as valuable as the Tony Allen / Andre Robersons of the world are, they are / were a complete liability in the post season because they couldn’t shoot.

Thybulle is a much better FT shooter, so it could just be a down year but that would be the one thing that could keep him from being a good NBA starter. He seems like a lock to stick in the league as a defensive specialist but if you are projecting him as one of the best 5 guys on a title team you need his shooting from Soph / Jr year to feel comfortable of that outcome.

I do really hope he is there and in consideration for that pick though. In terms of personnel match, I honestly think he would be awesome alongside Barrett.....as a floor spacer, lob catcher and defensive cover for RJ. It would allow you to hide Barrett on the worst offensive player 1-3 and produce some enormous lineup combinations with Barrett at the point on offense.

Nathan S said:

Jalen Pickett in action on ESPNU. He's started to gain some traction as a serious prospect especially thanks to his 46/13 game a couple weeks ago, but my model has had him the top-rated prospect in the country pretty much all year (though that should be taken in context with his very weak strength of schedule). Old school pass-first point guard with a big, solid 6'4" frame that should continue to develop as he matures. He's taken a last-place Siena team and carried them to within touching distance of a conference championship.

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What is his case for not being more of a Delon Wright type player? Long, crafty, great college player but lacks the athleticism necessary to really impact at the NBA level?

I haven’t watched him at all, so I’m more curious than anything. Given his frame and production, assuming he’s even an average NBA athlete, he’s a pretty interesting small school prospect.

I'mWithDan said:

The only thing that makes me at all uneasy is his 3 PT shooting regresssion. Because even with as valuable as the Tony Allen / Andre Robersons of the world are, they are / were a complete liability in the post season because they couldn’t shoot.

Thybulle is a much better FT shooter, so it could just be a down year but that would be the one thing that could keep him from being a good NBA starter. He seems like a lock to stick in the league as a defensive specialist but if you are projecting him as one of the best 5 guys on a title team you need his shooting from Soph / Jr year to feel comfortable of that outcome.

I do really hope he is there and in consideration for that pick though. In terms of personnel match, I honestly think he would be awesome alongside Barrett.....as a floor spacer, lob catcher and defensive cover for RJ. It would allow you to hide Barrett on the worst offensive player 1-3 and produce some enormous lineup combinations with Barrett at the point on offense.

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It's an exaggeration to say Tony Allen was a complete liability in the playoffs, I think. But I think Sefolosha is a more accurate comp anyway. Thybulle is more rangy and smart as opposed to tough-as-nails and physical. Really think his mild regression in 3-point percentage this year is just a sample size fluctuation...he's not a guy you want shooting off the dribble or anything, but given space and time to set his feet, he looks fine shooting the ball (in contrast to, e.g., Roberson). Agree that he'd also be a good partner for Barrett if we end up drafting him.

I'mWithDan said:

What is his case for not being more of a Delon Wright type player? Long, crafty, great college player but lacks the athleticism necessary to really impact at the NBA level?

I haven’t watched him at all, so I’m more curious than anything. Given his frame and production, assuming he’s even an average NBA athlete, he’s a pretty interesting small school prospect.

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I think there's a real risk of him being a Delon Wright...I see two key differences in Pickett's favor, one that he is much younger (Wright was a transfer student who was 23 on draft day), two that he's a far more prolific 3-point shooter, and one in Wright's favor, that he was playing in a major conference.

Also, Wright's been decent enough for a 20th pick. He was a useful roleplayer for a good Raptors team last year, and just last night he had 17/8/6 in a win against the Thunder. If he was 22 or 23 instead of going on 27, Toronto might have gone with him over VanVleet.

Nathan S said:

It's an exaggeration to say Tony Allen was a complete liability in the playoffs, I think. But I think Sefolosha is a more accurate comp anyway.

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At Memphis' peak, he went 4 years in a row making just a single 3 point shot, over the course of their 4 elimination series (20 games). Maybe I am misremembering but I thought it was GSW that just let him hang out in the short-long corner all game and just didn't even bother guarding him? That is more what I meant. Matisse can catch lobs and finish, so that is the one thing he certainly has over Allen, so to your point, Thabo is probably a better profile.

Nathan S said:

I think there's a real risk of him being a Delon Wright...I see two key differences in Pickett's favor, one that he is much younger (Wright was a transfer student who was 23 on draft day), two that he's a far more prolific 3-point shooter, and one in Wright's favor, that he was playing in a major conference.

Also, Wright's been decent enough for a 20th pick. He was a useful roleplayer for a good Raptors team last year, and just last night he had 17/8/6 in a win against the Thunder. If he was 22 or 23 instead of going on 27, Toronto might have gone with him over VanVleet.

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Yeah, Wright is still certainly an NBA player....I was just more thinking about what Pickett's best case might be. Is it Delon Wright like, more of a quality backup guard with some length? or does he have it in him to be a bigger, average NBA athlete PG like D'Angelo Russell. In my chart, he most closely resembles the Russell / Wright type at the college level....in terms of size and general production (if he is a true PG).

I'mWithDan said:

At Memphis' peak, he went 4 years in a row making just a single 3 point shot, over the course of their 4 elimination series (20 games). Maybe I am misremembering but I thought it was GSW that just let him hang out in the short-long corner all game and just didn't even bother guarding him? That is more what I meant. Matisse can catch lobs and finish, so that is the one thing he certainly has over Allen, so to your point, Thabo is probably a better profile.



Yeah, Wright is still certainly an NBA player....I was just more thinking about what Pickett's best case might be. Is it Delon Wright like, more of a quality backup guard with some length? or does he have it in him to be a bigger, average NBA athlete PG like D'Angelo Russell. In my chart, he most closely resembles the Russell / Wright type at the college level....in terms of size and general production (if he is a true PG).

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Offensively? Yeah, Allen was a liability. But I think his defense was always enough to offset that. His career playoff box plus/minus of +2.3 is very solid, actually better than his regular season box plus/minus of +1.0.

But yeah, I like Thabo more as a comp overall. Ginobili would be another good comp on defense.

As for Pickett, I think his best case involves him becoming a very prolific 3-point shooter. He's already quite good, converting at a higher percentage and at a higher rate than RJ and Morant among others. I think his passing stats (11.8 assists and 4.4 turnovers per 100) overstate his case a little bit, as he's more solid than spectacular there, but even then his combination of functional size, shooting, and passing is pretty rare. Guys with that combination at age 19 are usually lottery picks.

I probably won't update this until after the season but a few guys had new data load this AM. This (lottery) is sorted by the aggregate mock data hoopshype puts together. Guys with a "15" mock rank are generally considered 1st round picks, guys with a "30" mock rank are generally considered second round picks (spot checking mock draft resources).

You can see a giant crater forming in the middle of the lottery. Just for some context here......picks 4-9 is the "which GM is gonna get fired for thinking one of these guys will pan out?" zone. Purple and blue highlight weaknesses relative to historical data.

Just 8% of the top VORP players from each draft (2011-2018) fell below .750 in POS DIFF. Currently Reddish, Langford, Little, Johnson all miss that mark.....Garland, in a small sample size, is near it. All 5 are considered rather consensus top 9 picks. This calculation also hates Okpala and Porter Jr.

The Median All-Star profile is pinned to the top to give you an idea where players might fall comparatively.

Only 3/17 All-Star players had a GS/100/ADJ of less than -2.00.
Only 3/17 All-Star players had a POSS DIFF of less than .900.

12/17 All-Star players (71%) were above both -2.00 (ADJ), .900 (DIFF).
4/17 All-Star players (23%) were above one of -2.00 (ADJ), .900 (DIFF).
1/17 All-Star players (6%) was below both (Middleton, -6.00 ADJ, .520 DIFF).

Middleton is an absolutely crazy outlier relative to all the other All-Stars.

So if you see guys that are -2 or worse (ADJ), or under .900 (DIFF)......possession data says it's more unlikely that player can be an All-Star. Can it still happen? Sure but it's a much lower success rate.

That pegs these 1st round players (13) as possibly falling in that -2.00 (ADJ), .900 (DIFF) zone.

Zion, Ja, Hayes, NAW, Clarke, Thybulle, Williams, Fernando, Okeke, Washington, Ponds, Porter and Bassey.

Hunter, Bol (small sample)... just misses it.

Those are just kind of some bench marks to see how realistic a jump is for some players. The data can swing pretty drastically at the end of the season and probably 1/3rd of the players in that zone will fall out.....out of the updated data players (showing a NET CH. in the game score), you see that White made a huge jump from just 2 games......he went from a mid to early second round pick to a late 1st over the weekend. So these numbers will look very different given the quality of opponents and pressure all these guys will face during the tourney.

I'mWithDan said:

I probably won't update this until after the season but a few guys had new data load this AM. This (lottery) is sorted by the aggregate mock data hoopshype puts together. Guys with a "15" mock rank are generally considered 1st round picks, guys with a "30" mock rank are generally considered second round picks (spot checking mock draft resources).

You can see a giant crater forming in the middle of the lottery. Just for some context here......picks 4-9 is the "which GM is gonna get fired for thinking one of these guys will pan out?" zone. Purple and blue highlight weaknesses relative to historical data.

Just 8% of the top VORP players from each draft (2011-2018) fell below .750 in POS DIFF. Currently Reddish, Langford, Little, Johnson all miss that mark.....Garland, in a small sample size, is near it. All 5 are considered rather consensus top 9 picks. This calculation also hates Okpala and Porter Jr.

The Median All-Star profile is pinned to the top to give you an idea where players might fall comparatively.

Only 3/17 All-Star players had a GS/100/ADJ of less than -2.00.
Only 3/17 All-Star players had a POSS DIFF of less than .900.

12/17 All-Star players (71%) were above both -2.00 (ADJ), .900 (DIFF).
4/17 All-Star players (23%) were above one of -2.00 (ADJ), .900 (DIFF).
1/17 All-Star players (6%) was below both (Middleton, -6.00 ADJ, .520 DIFF).

Middleton is an absolutely crazy outlier relative to all the other All-Stars.

So if you see guys that are -2 or worse (ADJ), or under .900 (DIFF)......possession data says it's more unlikely that player can be an All-Star. Can it still happen? Sure but it's a much lower success rate.

That pegs these 1st round players (13) as possibly falling in that -2.00 (ADJ), .900 (DIFF) zone.

Zion, Ja, Hayes, NAW, Clarke, Thybulle, Williams, Fernando, Okeke, Washington, Ponds, Porter and Bassey.

Hunter, Bol (small sample)... just misses it.

Those are just kind of some bench marks to see how realistic a jump is for some players. The data can swing pretty drastically at the end of the season and probably 1/3rd of the players in that zone will fall out.....out of the updated data players (showing a NET CH. in the game score), you see that White made a huge jump from just 2 games......he went from a mid to early second round pick to a late 1st over the weekend. So these numbers will look very different given the quality of opponents and pressure all these guys will face during the tourney.

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My model is in pretty good agreement with this...exceptions are Bassey and Fernando (low offensive skill as measured by 3-point rate and assist:TO, don't have the outlier defensive stats to make up for it). Likes THT and Jones, and I see they're not far off your cutoff. Would be interested in seeing how Haliburton, Blackshear, and Tillman rate, if it would be easy for you to check.

Nathan S said:

My model is in pretty good agreement with this...exceptions are Bassey and Fernando (low offensive skill as measured by 3-point rate and assist:TO, don't have the outlier defensive stats to make up for it). Likes THT and Jones, and I see they're not far off your cutoff. Would be interested in seeing how Haliburton, Blackshear, and Tillman rate, if it would be easy for you to check.

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Yeah, I can add them.

THT is going to likely see a decent boost, similar to White.....because I don't believe it has TCU or OU games yet.....both where he had really nice production. And yes, he's right on that potential All-Star cutoff, just missing it......and when you consider he's so young, I'd include him as an exception if he's that close, given all the positive indicators.

Bassey has a really nice rebound rate both offensively and defensively....(5.21/18.1 per 100) and he blocks shots while not fouling (4.4/4.9). Almost 1:1 in BLK/PF rate is near elite. Anything over 1:1 is elite.....for guys in the 3-4+ BLK/100. So to produce nearly 10 OREB+BLK on sub 5 fouls per 100 is crazy good.

Out of all the draft data I have loaded (All All-Stars, All lottery players, All above average VORP players....160 total since 2011), Bassey is in the top 15% of total rebound rate, top 10% of BLK rate and has that almost elite BLK/PF rate. Comparative players are guys like Steven Adams......so if you think Bassey is a bit better athlete than Adams, that is potentially an incredibly good NBA center. That's not even considering Bassey has shot some 3's this year (low volume) and is a 75% FT shooter.....it seems there's some shooting potential too. Bassey is another guy I haven't watched a ton of tape on......but he does some things well that generally translate.

Fernando is on pace for the #2 TRB since 2011 out of the collected draft pick data......and #1 was Faried, who played at a smaller school. His OREB rate is at the same level as Zion and Clarke. I agree he has a much lower offensive ceiling but it's tough to counteract his mix of FG%/FT%/OREB/TRB as a big man. He's also a 4+ AST/100 guy as a big.....which is the same range Zion is in as well. Even offensive skill adjusted stats can't do enough to overcome being that good in all those metrics....even if his TO rate is a little higher.

Jones is the guy I'm a little more cool on seeing players like White emerge. White is near that All-Star type cut off in non scoring effect and he has a really high offensive ceiling.......I just think it's far more likely that White improves more significantly on that non scoring metric than Jones does offensively. I still like both but I'd be hard pressed to take Jones over White, seeing Coby's last few games.

I'mWithDan said:

Yeah, I can add them.

THT is going to likely see a decent boost, similar to White.....because I don't believe it has TCU or OU games yet.....both where he had really nice production. And yes, he's right on that potential All-Star cutoff, just missing it......and when you consider he's so young, I'd include him as an exception if he's that close, given all the positive indicators.

Bassey has a really nice rebound rate both offensively and defensively....(5.21/18.1 per 100) and he blocks shots while not fouling (4.4/4.9). Almost 1:1 in BLK/PF rate is near elite. Anything over 1:1 is elite.....for guys in the 3-4+ BLK/100. So to produce nearly 10 OREB+BLK on sub 5 fouls per 100 is crazy good.

Out of all the draft data I have loaded (All All-Stars, All lottery players, All above average VORP players....160 total since 2011), Bassey is in the top 15% of total rebound rate, top 10% of BLK rate and has that almost elite BLK/PF rate. Comparative players are guys like Steven Adams......so if you think Bassey is a bit better athlete than Adams, that is potentially an incredibly good NBA center. That's not even considering Bassey has shot some 3's this year (low volume) and is a 75% FT shooter.....it seems there's some shooting potential too. Bassey is another guy I haven't watched a ton of tape on......but he does some things well that generally translate.

Fernando is on pace for the #2 TRB since 2011 out of the collected draft pick data......and #1 was Faried, who played at a smaller school. His OREB rate is at the same level as Zion and Clarke. I agree he has a much lower offensive ceiling but it's tough to counteract his mix of FG%/FT%/OREB/TRB as a big man. He's also a 4+ AST/100 guy as a big.....which is the same range Zion is in as well. Even offensive skill adjusted stats can't do enough to overcome being that good in all those metrics....even if his TO rate is a little higher.

Jones is the guy I'm a little more cool on seeing players like White emerge. White is near that All-Star type cut off in non scoring effect and he has a really high offensive ceiling.......I just think it's far more likely that White improves more significantly on that non scoring metric than Jones does offensively. I still like both but I'd be hard pressed to take Jones over White, seeing Coby's last few games.

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Looking more closely at Bassey, his assist:TO in particular really murders him. I know it's always dangerous to read too much into a single stat, but I wonder if any player with a college assist:TO ratio worse than 1:4 has ever amounted to anything. Even "unskilled" bigs typically manage 1:2 or so. Maybe there's a good explanation for that, but it's a serious red flag that shouldn't be swept under the rug.

Fernando's assist:TO ratio is certainly good enough that it's not a red flag, but it's not good enough to be a projected strength, and at least for me the eye test bears that out. He seems like a 3rd-option ceiling kind of guy at the NBA level, just not quite skilled or dynamic enough to run an offense though, even for brief stretches. Of course, if you're happy with a guy who could average a reasonably efficient 15/10 and occasionally block some shots, then sure, by all means. I just see him as more of a late first/early second type than a lottery type.

I'd be inclined to agree on Jones vs. White, but we just recently got to see them go head-to-head, and Jones absolutely dominated that matchup (even accounting for the fact that he shot the ball like crap). I'm a little torn, because I do think White's a really good prospect, but it's hard to give him the edge after seeing them on the court at the same time. It wasn't even a fluky thing like White misfiring on shots he normally hits...Jones just didn't let him get to his spots at all.