Grading the free agent class of '05 - Part I

[Maximus]

Tuesday, December 6, 2005
Grading the free agent class of '05
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

In business, there's a phenomenon called the "winner's curse." What it says, essentially, is that the winner of an auction usually regrets it, because making a winning bid and overpaying tend to go hand in hand.

Jerome James
Jerome James can clog the lane and a team's payroll.

That seems to apply in basketball too. For example, let's say there are three teams bidding for a free agent, whom we'll call "Jerome." All three get their personnel people working to determine the player's market value and come up with a contract offer. Team No. 1 estimates the player's market value correctly and makes a fair offer. Team No. 2 underestimates his value and makes an offer that's too low. But Team No. 3 overestimates his value and comes up with an offer that will overpay Jerome considerably.

Guess who wins the bidding? That's right, the team that overpaid. And that's why winning free-agent wars are often pyrrhic victories -- overpaying on a multiyear deal can put a team in a tight salary cap spot for years.

It seems a particularly appropriate time to discuss the winner's curse because so many of this year's free agents have been such crushing disappointments. Of the offseason's 25 most prominent free agents who changed teams, only a couple have been unqualified successes. The rest have either failed miserably or, at best, underperformed for their contracts. And most of the successes have been in the lower tier of players -- those who make less than the midlevel exception.

For proof, let's take a look at those 25 team-switching free agents and, much like Professor Ford out in Hawaii, assign grades based on how they've done so far. As you'll see, it ain't pretty.

In order of total salary:

Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks, 5 years, $70 million.
Johnson has played hard and shown that he's a quality NBA shooting guard. That's not the problem. The issue is that he's clearly not a superstar, or even an All-Star, but he's being paid like one. Making matters worse, the Hawks gave up two first-round picks and swingman Boris Diaw to get him, and right now Diaw is outplaying Johnson. Finally, the original plan to play Johnson at the point proved unworkable, leaving Atlanta with a glut of wingmen and a paucity of point guards.
Grade: D

Larry Hughes, Cleveland Cavaliers, 5 years, $60 million.
Hughes has reverted to his low-percentage ways in Cleveland, hitting only 38.7 percent from the floor and struggling to adapt as a defensive stopper -- a role he needs to fill so LeBron can focus on offense. Like Johnson, Hughes cost superstar money but is delivering only midlevel performance. The key difference here is that he didn't cost the Cavs draft picks and a player.
Grade: C-

Eddy Curry, New York Knicks, 6 years, $56 million.
Curry has been effective when he's on the floor, with per-40-minute rates of 21.1 points and 10.8 rebounds. The operative phrase here is "when he's on the floor." Between injuries and foul trouble he's played only 245 minutes, ranking him ninth on the Knicks. For $10 million a year and the loss of Michael Sweetney, New York needs much more.
Grade: C-


Antoine Walker
A former Celtic, Antoine Walker fittingly received a C.

Antoine Walker, Miami Heat,
6 years, $53 million.
'Toine is adjusting better to life as Miami's sixth man than some expected, shooting a career-best 43.3 percent. (Your eyes did not deceive you: The number "43.3 percent" just followed the words "career-best.") He's also giving a passable defensive effort when he's been forced to play small forward and hasn't chucked too many ill-chosen 3-pointers. That makes him a decent midlevel player, but at nearly $9 million per the Heat still overpaid.
Grade: C

Bobby Simmons, Milwaukee Bucks, 5 years, $47 million.
That soft jumper he showed as a Clipper hasn't surfaced in cheese country. Simmons is struggling with marks of 41.3 percent from the floor and 26.1 percent from 3-point range, and he hasn't provided the expected upgrade to the Bucks' porous defense. Fortunately, the Bucks don't necessarily need him to score, but $47 million is awfully expensive for a role player on a small-market team.
Grade: D

 

[Maximus]

Part II

Cuttino Mobley, Los Angeles Clippers, 5 years, $42 million.
A stellar acquisition by the standards of this list, Mobley fills two important needs for the Clippers. He provides a durable shooting guard, and gives the Clips a respectable long-range shooter to open things up for Elton Brand in the paint. It's still hard to get excited about paying over $8 million a year for his ho-hum production, but as long as the Clips stay in first, Mobley's grade will stay above the curve.
Grade: B-

Marko Jaric, Minnesota Timberwolves, 6 years, $40 million.
Jaric has played decently, especially at the defensive end, and his versatility has been a bonus on a team with a thin bench. That's helped Minnesota surprise the soothsayers thus far, and the money wasn't too excessive. Unfortunately, as with Johnson, he also cost his team a player and a draft pick. With Sam Cassell looking spunky in L.A. and a Wolves first-rounder committed to the Clips, Jaric doesn't seem like such a bargain.
Grade: C-

Jerome James, New York Knicks, 5 years, $30 million.
The worst free-agent signing of the summer, hands down. For those of you familiar with my Player Efficiency Rating (PER), James has managed the difficult feat of posting a PER below zero thus far. He's taken one foul shot all season, averaged a foul every 2.5 minutes and needed only a week to fall out of the Knicks' rotation. And he only cost the Knicks their full midlevel exception. Brilliant.
Grade: F-

Antonio Daniels, Washington Wizards, 5 years, $30 million.
Daniels was supposed to help fill the void left by Hughes' departure, but instead he's dug a deeper crater. He's shooting 31.9 percent and averaging a pathetic 8.4 points per 40 minutes, while his 2-for-19 3-point marksmanship has failed to stop defenses from collapsing against Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison.
Grade: D-

Stromile Swift
It's been slow going for Stro.

Stromile Swift, Houston Rockets, 5 years, $30 million.
A big reason the Rockets have been such a disappointment is that their major free-agent acquisition, Swift, has failed to deliver. He's underperforming his career numbers across the board and has failed to pick up Houston's defensive concepts, a major reason he's still suffering the indignity of being Juwan Howard's backup.
Grade: D+

Earl Watson, Denver Nuggets, 5 years, $30 million.
Good news: The Nuggets got a coveted free-agent point guard in Watson. Bad news: They already had two better players who play the same position. As a result, Watson is sitting around waiting for Dec. 15, when he can be traded for some frontcourt help. The grade would be worse but for the fact that Watson still can be converted into an asset after next Thursday.
Grade: D+

Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Sacramento Kings, 5 years, $30 million.
Half a billion dollars later, we finally get to a free agent who's lived up to the expectations. Abdur-Rahim cost the Kings only their midlevel exception and he's given them exactly what they expected: A high-scoring, high-percentage power forward, albeit one who's a bit soft on D. The grade would be an A except for Abdur-Rahim's supernatural ability to have his teams disappoint, as the Kings have been surprisingly mediocre.
Grade: A-

Kwame Brown, Los Angeles Lakers, 3 years, $25 million.
Food for thought: Now that Brown is disappointing a second franchise and, in five years, has provided virtually zero highlight material, can we consider the possibility that all those scouts were wrong four years ago, and he just didn't have as much ability as we initially presumed? Isn't that a much better explanation for what's taken place since?
Grade: F

Raja Bell, Phoenix Suns, 5 years, $24 million.
Bell probably wasn't worth all the money Phoenix paid and he hasn't exactly lit it up offensively thus far. On the other hand, his feisty demeanor has been a key to the one of the league's most improved defenses, as he's ably filled the stopper role vacated by Johnson's departure. All told, I doubt the Suns regret it.
Grade: B-

Donyell Marshall, Cleveland Cavaliers. 4 years, $22 million.
Marshall's shooting (38.5 percent) isn't up to his usual level despite the many open shots that LeBron & Co. provide, and defensively he's of limited value. But he's helping out on the boards and comes at a bargain price, so even if the jumpers don't start falling, he's providing decent value.
Grade: B-

Damon Stoudamire, Memphis Grizzlies, 4 years, $17 million.
Few small guards have aged better than Mighty Mouse, who even at 32 is having no problem filling it up. He's hitting 40 percent on 3-pointers and contributing solid numbers across the board at a bargain price. That's helped the Griz to the second-best record in the West despite a thorough offseason housecleaning.
Grade: A-

Damon Jones, Cleveland Cavaliers, 4 years, $16.1 million.
Cleveland hired the motormouthed guard to hit 3-pointers, and so far he's making 39.5 percent of them. He doesn't provide much else and the numbers don't match what he did in Miami a year ago, but the shooting-starved Cavs aren't complaining.
Grade: B-

Zaza Pachulia
Zaza Pachulia's offensive game has been a plus for the Hawks.

Zaza Pachulia, Atlanta Hawks, 4 years, $16 million.
Zaza has a soft touch around the rim and has proved surprisingly adept as a rebounder, averaging 11.7 caroms per 40 minutes. Considering his youth (21) and the bargain-basement price for a big man, this was a steal, but the grade won't reach the A range until he stops getting abused on defense.
Grade: B+

Steven Hunter, Philadelphia 76ers, 5 years, $16.5 million.
Like Pachulia, Hunter provides a reasonably effective big man at an innocuous price. The 58 percent shooting is eye-catching, but the Sixers would be happier if he grabbed a rebound once in a while. His rate of one every six minutes is among the worst at his position.
Grade: B

Brian Scalabrine, Boston Celtics, 5 years, $15 million.
It doesn't exactly take Marco Polo to find the negatives on the Scalabrine deal. For instance, he has as many turnovers as field goals. He has nearly as many fouls (26) as points (28). Office pools are starting up throughout the Boston area on when he'll finally play his way out of Doc Rivers' rotation. Not that we saw this coming or anything.
Grade: F

Sarunas Jasikevicius, Indiana Pacers, 3 years, $12 million.
I was skeptical about his ability to give Indy bang for these bucks, but so far Jasikevicius has been absolutely brilliant. In fact, through Sunday's games he had the best 2005-06 PER of any free agent on this list at 21.72 (the league average is 15.0). For more evidence, check out these shooting numbers: 51.7 percent from the floor, 51 percent on 3-pointers, and 94.9 percent from the line. Per minute he's Indy's No. 3 scorer, and he may use Jamaal Tinsley's absence this week to take over the starting point guard job.
Grade: A+

James Jones, Phoenix Suns, 4 years, $11 million.
A cheap replacement for Quentin Richardson's "just hang out at the 3-point line and wait for Nash to deliver the ball" role, Jones is taking more than half his shots from downtown and hitting 40 percent. He's not completely one-dimensional either, throwing in a little D to complement the jump shooting. At this price point, it's hard to ask for anything more.
Grade: B+

Keyon Dooling, Orlando Magic, 3 years, $10 million.
Dooling seemed to be justifying Orlando's investment in him with some quality scoring performances to begin the year, but a heel problem knocked him out after six games and he hasn't been heard from since. He should be back in the lineup by Christmas, however, and we'll see if he can keep it up then.
Grade: Incomplete

Dale Davis, Detroit Pistons, 2 years, $7 million.
It's great to have frontcourt depth, but right now Detroit is paying Davis quite a bit of money to keep Jason Maxiell company at the far end of the bench. Once playoff time rolls around, his role may increase, especially if the Pistons need somebody to take a few fouls against Shaq.
Grade: Incomplete

Eddie House, Phoenix Suns, 2 years, $1.8 million.
Other than Jasikevicius, House has been the league's best free-agent pickup thus far. Per 40 minutes he's averaging a whopping 25.6 points, and the notorious gunner is even throwing in 4.9 assists. The 48.2 percent shooting mark is a career high, too. Now for the punch line: He's barely costing the Suns more than the minimum salary -- or about 3 percent of what the Hawks owe Joe Johnson. No winner's curse here.
Grade: A

 

[Karma]

Slight over rating of Jones considering his weak defense, but his shooting keeps his value to Cleveland at a decent level. Marshall and Hughes are about right with Hughes disappointing of late. This may be due to his hand injury, but when he's out there and not performing at a level you expext you can tag him that way.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I think that it is important for everyone to note that while yes, I was the lone voice properly spelling the name Jasikevicius for two years in a row as well as the first to parade Eddie House as an option, I am not one to gloat. I am above gloating how right I was.

Go Damon Jones. Prove me wrong.

 

[NarlCavs]

Hollinger in his rankings also factors in how much each player got paid with their contract. I think that's why he's easier on Jones and Marshall than he is on Hughes.

Hughes has slipped a little lately. He's shooting hasn't been great in the last week and his defense has been average. He was playing very well early so hopefully it's just a little slump.

 

[Kypus]

I *love* how this Hollinger guy writes. His formulas are so....well, *practical* The only extra thing I would throw in his formulas would be the Nash factor, he can make anyone look good!

Randolph, I'll give you props/rep for the Eddie House call, I remember reading it on SCT. The Sarunas part is fuzzy, I wasn't reading that far back so I don't know.

Hughes starting to pick it back up again in the Kings game.

 

[CleveRocks]

I don't think Hughes is getting his full due here. While his shooting percentages have slipped, he is bringing a lot of energy to the team, and has been essential to our current success. I think it is easy to criticize in hindsight. Perhaps Boris Diaw would have filled the role. But when Ferry and Gilbert were looking for the lebron compliment, they did not want to (and should not have) gamble on an unknown. Larry was an expensive insurance policy, but he is bringing it every night. and so from a team perspective it as an A move. Lets see how it looks at the end of the year, but my money is that we are in the playoffs, and nobody is going to want to play us at home..

 

[Dungong]

I think Hughes is underrated here too. What Hughes has shown is that he has the ability to take over a game. Basically, Hughes is a guy that can keep a struggling team in the game almost single-handedly. I'd rate him a bit higher. My main problem with Hughes is that the guy just isn't finishing that well. He'll use his quickness to get to the rim a lot, but if hes not fouled, there isn't much he can do. He doesn't have the vertical that Lebron has, so he has less hang time and strength and such to work with, but i'm just doubting that much of the penetration he finishes himself is amounting to much.

Damon Jones is about where he needs to be. If the guy would play some D to accompany the trash talking and show a little something on offense besides park behind the 3 point line, he'd be a huge bargain. As it is now though, he is nailing the 3 pretty well, and considering everyone knows thats what he's trying to do out there, thats pretty good.

Marshall i would bump up a bit higher overall, but he's been struggling as of late, so i can see where his rating comes from.

Saraunas and House are surprising, but I think their high rating is partially due to their low salaries. If you get any sort of value out of a 2 year 1.8 million contract, thats a good deal right there. I think Saraunas was our first choice to come here, but he didn't, nothing you can do about that. Note the other choices people were talking about like Watson, Daniels, and Jaric aren't rated as high as Damon but they make more.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Two things that are not taken into account in these rankings: small sample size and player's age. Hughes was more valuable in free agency than Cat Mobley because Larry should have another 8-10 years of quality basketball in him. These rankings just go by what has happened over the course of the past 15-18 games.

 

[LyXo]

Two things that are not taken into account in these rankings: small sample size and player's age. Hughes was more valuable in free agency than Cat Mobley because Larry should have another 8-10 years of quality basketball in him. These rankings just go by what has happened over the course of the past 15-18 games.

It doesn't really need to account for age... it only is considering current production versus the salary.

 

[Pioneer10]

Well Hughes was outstanding last night. To me it seems when both Lebron and Larry score about 23+ a night we are really really tough to beat.

 

[The Oi]

This thread has kind of become a defense of Hughes rather than a response to that eval of the FA class...

But I do want to add my own opinion of Hughes. I've noticed that Hughes' ability to drive and dish is particularly helpful to Z. Because even though it looks a little goofy, when Larry gets lost in the crowd he'll create just enough space for him to push it (even hand it off) to a taller Z. He creates a lot of open mid-range looks for Z and sometimes easy baskets inside where Z just tosses the ball over guys who get low to guard Hughes.

In fact- though he is obviously a totally different type of player- Hughes helps the team in a way that is very similiar to Z. His tendency to drive creates so much space. You can't really see that in the personal statistics for either one of them. However, Hughes' drives attract quite a crowd, especially against teams with weak defenses. Hughes' ability gives Damon and Donyell (even LeBron) more time to set up for threes just as Z's tendency to draw double and triple teams sets up a lot of mid-range and outside jumpers.

And I don't think enough can be said about Hughes' energy and ability to take the scoring load of LeBron's back. Hughes is a great chemistry guy and that will show even more when everybody finds their proper role.

 

[Cleveland56]

This is a C-?

PPG 17.6
RPG 4.50
APG 4.0

I can see the reason with the salary for a lower grade but we play in Cleveland so that is just part of the deal...And to have to same grade as Curry is insulting.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Lyxo: the issue with measuring current production vs. salary is that age was heavily factored into the contract discussion.

For example, Cat Mobley is 30 years old and signed until he is 35. He will not likely be as effective the last 2-3 years of his 5 year contract. Stoudamire might be playing as well as any 32 year old guard, but that contract of his doesn't look like an A- when he is 35 years old and making 4.7 million. Hughes and Johnson, on the other hand, are relatively young and will be in their prime at the end of their contracts. Therefore, younger emerging players should recieve a better contract than a veteran on his last legs.

This renders the scope of the analysis, 18 games compared to the leangth and cost of a contract, a somewhat inaccurate barometer of the contract's value. I'm not saying Hollinger wrote complete mistruth, I was just pointing out the flaws in the study.

 

[LyXo]

Touche.