Last Year Redux

[Pioneer10]

I posted this on my main board but I find these stats very interesting:

http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2006/jh_ALL_PER.htm
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2005.html

Interesting how the PER nicely reflects performance and our personnal observations- this team is looking more and more like last year's as the season progresses
#=overall rank based on PER in the league
(Paranetheses contains last year's PER numbers)
Lebron 28.7, #3 in the league (25.7, #6),
Z 22.1, #19 (19.5, #27)
Gooden 20.5, #28 (19.7, #25)

Then it starts looking real ugly just like last year after our "big three"

Hughes 15.1, #98 (21.6, #19)
Marshall 14.3, # 115 (19.9, Tractor 12,#157, AV 17)
D. Jones 13.4, # 126 (15.5, #82, McInnis 12.4, #150)
Snow 10.7, #183 (9.0)

What can we conclude from this, if Larry Hughes doesn't step it up, we have essentially not improved from last year. Snow still provides zero, literally, zero on offense just like last year. D. Jones is just like J. McInnis last year: maybe better on O maybe worse (my god) on D. Marshall may be actually worse then having both AV and Tractor Traylor off the bench.

What we need based on stats and performance: The biggest one and the one I see that is most plausible: Larry Hughes needs to start living up to our expectation. This actually applies to both D. Jones and Marshall who are NOT playing as well as they did last year. All 3 FA's need to pick it up and hopefully they will as they get used to playing the system and with each other. Second, a healthy AV. Third, (not going to happen secondary to his heart issues) Tractor or an equivalent tough play inside. We're soft right now. 4th (should be 1 but I'm not sure how this can be addressed) a real improvement in the PG position


******PER is a complicated formula by John Hollinger but it the best measure of individual performance becuase it's based on impact by possession and takes away the effects of minutes. A player like Duncan for example has a huge impact but his per game numbers look sparse because he plays less minutes then say a KG.
An average PER is 15, MVP's typically have PER well above 25****

 

[LyXo]

Our systems and chemistry is just not founded yet. We're not maximizing the skill of the players, and several are stricken with injury. We are all still learning and are focusing mainly on defense, making our offense, thus much statitistics, sag and lag behind.

Also, the increase of ball-demanders spreads the PER around a bit. Looking at the starting lineups:

25.7 + 19.5 + 19.7 + 8.6 + 12.4 = 85.9

28.7 + 22.1 + 20.5 + 15.1 + 10.7 = 97.1

A nice increase from last year.

Individual PERS for new guys coming in should be down. But not this down. Hughes' should be higher, he's very ineffective right now. He's hampered by injuries and sickness, I think. Or, he does poorly against more physical players. Probably a combination of the two, because he was the anchor to our offense in our first 10 games. Everything seemed to go downhill when Hughes slid and LeBron started to take over. If Hughes isn't producing like he should, then it's like having Ira Newble out there again.

Jones just sucks. I really wish we got Sarunas, but we're stuck with this bum that asks to be pulled out of a game because he can't defend the opposition. At least he admits it. But still sad. Work on your defense, boy.

Marshall has been quite solid. His PER has dropped recently because his shooting hasn't been quite as good as before the slump. His confidence in the shot has definitely taken a hit for the worse... I hope he regains his gunning mentality. He was much better without hesitation.


And I don't think Tractor Traylor is the answer. I really wouldn't want him back. I think Henderson does a fine job of the dirty work. AV back will also be a big boost.

 

[Pioneer10]

^ the improvement in starting PER from last year is still mostly from Hughes. While he is playing very poorly compared to last year. His PER of 15.1 (average production from the SG position) is still much better then Newble's PER of 8.6 (the worst per of any starting SG last year!!).

Unfortunately to really be good and not just a team fighting for a low playoff seed we need Hughes PER to be around 20 I think.

*Note should be made Lebron is playing remarkably well and his PER numbers have been solidly better then last year whether he was playing off the ball earlier in the year or more on teh ball now

 

[PIP]

Don't sweat it... I have it on good authority that we will be fine by february... :chuckles:

 

[ootbttnlagitnbasf]

we will be ok if we just take it one game at a time. we need to get all of our players on the same page and involve everyone because there is no "i" in team. every player must give 100%. these are professionals and they should take pride in their work. we are a blue collar town that takes pride in playing the right way. our young players need to gel with the veterans and the veterans need to provide leadership both on and off the court. the team is more important than any individual. the best offense is a good defense. hustle is contagious. injuries are not an excuse. winners never quit and quitters never win. several of our bench players would be starters on any other team in the league. we have the best fans in the nba. in this era of free agency and salary caps, the time to win is now. it's a long season. the season is a marathon not a sprint. it's not over until the fat lady sings.

i have short attention span syndrome (SASS), so i have trouble absorbing the significance of a lot of arcane statiscal data. but it does not surprise me that a team that has mostly the same key players from a year ago has much the same results as we did a year ago. it's not easy for a tiger to change its spots.

maybe the cav's would do better if we called them names that were more insulting.

 

[Pioneer10]

BUMP!!!!

Wasn't it just last year that such superstars as Anthony Johnson and Brevin Knight were having career nighs against us. Now it is the world famous Tyron Lue ripping us like Steve Nash.

Why in God's name would Lebron want to stay with a franchise that doesn't do anything to address a huge hole. Seriously, last year I posted that with Sasha and Luke our biggest need was probably the PG position but we lost out on Jaric, Watson, Daniels, and Sarunas. We got left the scraps in D. Jones who is a situational backup PG. The problem is just a killer in that Snow is also at best a SITUATIONAL backup as well.

 

[TyGuy]

You also forgot to mention we addressed out 2 guard possition with a guy who cant shoot after he puts the ball on the floor.. Plays terrible defense and despite being labeld as a slasher ant convert around the rim but was able to put up superb numbers when it mattered most... Yep he got the money and we look like big dummies, I hope this guy can turn it around but he looks just way too out of place and doesnt seem to playing with any urgency at all. Maybe i can embarass him into playing good basketball.