The Cleveland Cavaliers Magic Number Thread (2012 Playoffs and Ping Pong Balls)

[rabman_gold]

Keeping this up for you guys to see how it works.

I'm going to do it both ways this year. I also updated some of the ways I'm doing this as well. Thank you for your patience.

Here's the rules for the rest of the year:

1. Start with 66 games, combine your wins, any team's losses, add 1, and you automatically beat them in rankings.
2. 66 - Cavs' wins + Any Team's losses + tie-breakers = Win in rankings.
3. Start with 66 games, combine your losses, any team's wins, add 1, and you can't reach them.
4. 66 - Cavs' losses + Any team's wins + tie-breakers in opponents favor = Loss in rankings.
5. If a team is above the Cavs in playoffs, use Cavs losses + opponents wins + tie-breakers instead.
6. If a team is below the Cavs in lottery ranking, use Cavs wins + opponents losses + tie-breakers instead.

The first two are for playoff contention, if you can call it that. The other two are for lottery chances. Which side will you choose?

Games Left: 1

The playoffs:

Teams	Rankings	Magic Numbers
Detroit	10	Better
New Jersey	11	Luck
Toronto	12	Next
Cleveland	13	Year

Translation: So, no more playoffs. I'll keep this up so at least there's a table available for next year (and the year after). Don't forget about this post, since the Cavs WILL be in the playoffs sooner or later (Dan Gilbert's paying for it with Kyrie, Baron's salary, Walton's salary, and the Lakers draft pick).

And the lottery:

Teams	Rankings	Magic Numbers
New Orleans	3	It
Cleveland	3	Could've
Sacramento	5	Been
New Jersey	5	Much
Toronto	7	Worse

Translation: So, I'll just keep this here for next year, so if it's okay, I'd appreciate no permanent lock since I also do chances for good playoff spots above.
Sacramento's Magic Number: 0
They're gone. Better luck next year... so we can steal your pick instead.

Laker's Games Left: 1
Laker's Magic Number: 0 (we officially have the Laker's pick this year, be bad next year so we can profit)
Lakers Pick before toss: 25th or 24th

And some info on the Lottery Here (click me!):

13 Draft Lotteries since 2012:

Rank	Times in Top 3	Times in Top 5
Worst	9 times (69.2%)	13 times (100%)
2nd Worst	5 times (38.5%)	13 times (100%)
3rd Worst	4 times (30.8%)	12 times (92.3%)
4th Worst	6 times (46.2%)	11 times (84.6%)
5th Worst	6 times (46.2%)	07 times (53.8%)
6th Worst	4 times (30.8%)	Same
7th Worst	2 times (15.4%)	Same
8th Worst	01 time (07.7%)	Same
9th Worst	01 time (07.7%)	Same
10th Worst	0 times	Same
11th Worst	Same	Same
12th Worst	Same	Same
13th Worst	01 time (07.7%)	Same
14th Worst	0 times	Same

Conclusion from link (view at discretion): Avoid 5 at all costs. It doesn't give high odds for a top 5 pick, let alone top 3. Get at least a 4th seed lottery pick to allow some flexibility.

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Credit to the following poster (thank this post as well):

Believeland-OH

Standings Before the Last Day of Games

T-6th - New Jersey Nets (22 Wins) (1 Games Left)
G.R.: @TOR

T-6th - Toronto Raptors (22 Wins) (1 Games Left)
G.R.: vNJN

T-3rd - Cleveland Cavaliers (21 Wins) (1 Games Left)
G.R.: @CHI

T-3rd - Sacramento Kings (21 Wins) (1 Games Left)
G.R.: vLAL

T-3rd - New Orleans Hornets (21 Wins) (1 Games Left)
G.R.: @HOU

*2nd - Washington Wizards (19 Wins) (1 Games Left)
*1st - Charlotte Bobcats (7 Wins) (1 Games Left)

After tonight there is no denying the Cavaliers are committed to the tank. Just one game to go at Chicago. The Bulls have played their starters normal minutes against the Pacers tonight, so hopefully they do again tomorrow as they try to work D-Rose back into the starting lineup. A lose puts us no worse then a tie for 3rd, a win is unspeakable.

We still don't know if the Lakers will sit their starters tomorrow against Sacramento. The Rockets will be sitting several key players against the Hornets who will not be playing Gordon. Let's hope after tomorrow we sit in sole possession of 3rd.

Houston's DNP for tomorrow:

You did a good job with the analysis. Hopefully you're up for it again next year (maybe on the other end). Thank you for everything.
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Just one more game.

Updated: Friday, April 27, 2012 @ 10:40 AM - Done for the year, so ya when it matters next year.

[jonzee330]

Finally, something to get at least a little bit excited about.

[cdt]

Rabman glad you saw my post...this will be a useful thread. Go everyone but us!

[rabman_gold]

Rabman glad you saw my post...this will be a useful thread. Go everyone but us!

... Whatever...

Just don't sticky this. I hate it. I want to see Championship Trophies and Rings... not Ping Pong Balls...

[cdt]

... Whatever...

Just don't sticky this. I hate it. I want to see Championship Trophies and Rings... not Ping Pong Balls...

Believe me I want banners and jewelry but I also don't want to be a mediocre team with overpaid Free Agents and no young talent...ie Detroit or Philly

[dano_24_26]

Does anyone know the % if we end up with the worst record to receive the first pick. And so on...

[MYoung23]

Does anyone know the % if we end up with the worst record to receive the first pick. And so on...

As of 2008, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances

250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
199 combinations, 19.9% chance
156 combinations, 15.6% chance
119 combinations, 11.9% chance
88 combinations, 8.8% chance
63 combinations, 6.3% chance
43 combinations, 4.3% chance
28 combinations, 2.8% chance
17 combinations, 1.7% chance
11 combinations, 1.1% chance
8 combinations, 0.8% chance
7 combinations, 0.7% chance
6 combinations, 0.6% chance
5 combinations, 0.5% chance

[ohiorulez]

Does anyone know the % if we end up with the worst record to receive the first pick. And so on...

i believe it is 25%

[wuck]

My other thread was locked up, so I'm doing this, and I can't believe I'm doing it either...

Even in a way, way down year, rabman can make the most out of tables.

[rabman_gold]

Does anyone know the % if we end up with the worst record to receive the first pick. And so on...

Well, I have nothing better to do....

1. Basically, there are many combinations you can get to receive a certain spot in the lottery. The top team has 250 combinations. The lowest (the one with the best record in the lottery) has 5.
2. All teams have a shot to get the first, second, or third overall picks every year.
3. Only the first four have a shot at the 4th overall pick.
4. The second also has a shot at the 5. The 3rd with the 6th. And the fourth with the 7th.
5. The fourteenth team currently has a 98.2% chance of getting the 14th pick, while they only have a small shot at the other 3. They can't get anywhere else.

That's what you need to know. As for what's relevant to us, we're either going to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd most likely. So, here's our chances:

1. First team:
   
   1. 25% for 1st.
   2. 21.5% for 2nd.
   3. 17.8% for 3rd.
   4. 35.7% for 4th (oy).
   
   
2. Second team:
   
   1. 19.9%
   2. 18.8%
   3. 17.1%
   4. 31.9%
   5. 31.9%
   6. 12.3%
   
   
3. Third team:
   
   1. 15.6%
   2. 15.7%
   3. 15.6%
   4. 22.6%
   5. 26.5%
   6. 4%
   
   

Hope that helps. It's still a crapshoot to get the first overall pick, that's why the top team doesn't always get it. Here's more for clarification: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

[NarlCavs]

Looking right now at how this year's draft might be, it doesn't matter a ton to me if the Cavs don't get the #1 pick. I just at least want a top 3 pick since the talent level should be fairly even. That could change though depending on who of the underclassmen end up declaring.

Talking lottery pick with more than half the season to go brings back memories.

[Gordon Bombay]

we need to corrupt caterers to issue some bad food to perspective kings and timberwolves opponents so they have an easier time of winning

[Gimme Some Mo]

If we win any of the next 3 games, this thread has to be locked and deleted.

[1B4IGO]

Looking right now at how this year's draft might be, it doesn't matter a ton to me if the Cavs don't get the #1 pick. I just at least want a top 3 pick since the talent level should be fairly even. That could change though depending on who of the underclassmen end up declaring.

Talking lottery pick with more than half the season to go brings back memories.

I agree. The talent in the top end of this draft is pretty much equal with the first three or four picks. I would love to see us pick up another first rounder, even if it is later though. I think the talent is pretty much on par from picks 15-30 also.

[Jezzar]

I agree. The talent in the top end of this draft is pretty much equal with the first three or four picks. I would love to see us pick up another first rounder, even if it is later though. I think the talent is pretty much on par from picks 15-30 also.

We want the first pick if Irving is on board.

Else, any of the top 3 would do.