2012 NFL Draft Rumor Thread

[b00bie]

You just have to use your brain.. Look at the teams, look at the carries they give their backs, and you'll see that the star running backs are the only guys who are getting the entire work load for a team at that position.

David Wilson - 290 in 14 games - 20.7 carries per game
Lamar Miller - 227 in 12 games - 18.9 carrier per game
Doug Martin - 263 in 11 games and one quarter (injury) - 23.3 carries per game
Trent Richardson - 283 in 13 games - 21.7 carries per game

Tell me again which backs can't carry a full load?

Or do you want to give me more statistics which don't prove your point at all?

[Triplethreat]

David Wilson - 290 in 14 games - 20.7 carries per game
Lamar Miller - 227 in 12 games - 18.9 carrier per game
Doug Martin - 263 in 11 games and one quarter (injury) - 23.3 carries per game
Trent Richardson - 283 in 13 games - 21.7 carries per game

Tell me again which backs can't carry a full load?

Or do you want to give me more statistics which don't prove your point at all?

Using their college stats says nothing to me.

You have to be an elite back in the NFL to carry the entire load of a team. end of story.

[Phills14]

b00bie, you are going nowhere with this argument. I would recommend you move on or you set yourself up for even more frustration.

[GonzoRatso88]

Some interesting Browns updates for you fine gentlemen via the OBR:

The Browns continue to have dialogue with the agent for linebacker Jonathan Goff.

Presently, theOBR has been told a deal is not close.

A very solid source tells theOBR the Browns are leaning against the selection of QB Ryan Tannehill with the fourth overall selection in the draft.

If the Browns are able to deal down out of the fourth selection, Tannehill would be an increasingly strong option.

Over the last week, the Browns were considering making an offer to QB Josh Johnson, who recently inked a deal with the 49ers.

TheOBR is hearing different stories on offensive tackle Demetrius Bell.

One source tells theOBR the Browns have expressed interest,meh lie another states the Browns have not.

We are attempting to gain a perspective other than the conflicting information we are hearing.

The Browns never engaged the agent for OT Anthony Collins in contract negotiations.

Despite interest, theOBR learned the Browns expected Collins to re-sign with the Bengals.

TheOBR has learned the Browns have QB Kirk Cousins rated within the top-five at the position and will consider him from the second round on, in the draft.

TheOBR has learned the Browns have RB David Wilson rated between the second and fourth RB in the draft.

TheOBR has learned the Browns have RB Doug Martin rated between the second and fourth RB in the draft.

TheOBR has learned the Browns evaluate Pead as an all-purpose RB, with explosive qualities and an excellent fit within the WCO.

TheOBR has learned the Browns rate the difference between Blackmon and Floyd being that of size and quickness.

Blackmon is quicker off the spot and into routes, whereas Floyd is slightly slower off the spot and into route.

Floyd plays well this physical size of 6'3" 225, whereas Blackmon plays bigger than his 6'1" 205 frame.

TheOBR has learned the Browns rate Stephen Hill as the most explosive WR in the draft, based on potential.

The Browns remain very interested in the GT WR.

[bob2the2nd]

A very solid source tells theOBR the Browns are leaning against the selection of QB Ryan Tannehill with the fourth overall selection in the draft.

.[/B]

so glad i dont pay for this. in their previous update they said there was absolutely no chance tannhill would be the pick, now they are just leaning against it?

[b00bie]

Using their college stats says nothing to me.

You have to be an elite back in the NFL to carry the entire load of a team. end of story.

Using the stats you made up in your head about any of these guys makes you look retarded.

You have nothing to prove your point, again...it's becoming your forte.

[The Hill]

While Richfield presents some interesting numbers, I don't think using the average career length of all NFL players really gives us what shelf life really is for our purposes. The trouble with using all players is that an NFL team has a lot of turnover each year. Much of this turnover is due to lack of talent. Those 5th round and later picks. The free agents that are added. Many of them are often suspects more then prospects. That greatly influences the low career length of the average player. Many of those players are let go while they still have "shelf live" left. They just were never at the level the team hoped they'd be to make their shelf live useful to the team.

I agree there is more to understand behind the numbers. The data is from the NFLPA, and I assume it includes all players who have ever made an NFL roster. While it does not tell us a lot about how long we can expect to see a particular player stick around, what I think is most interesting is how closely the average career lengths of running backs are to wide receivers and cornerbacks. Before looking into it, I thought wide receivers and cornerbacks had careers almost twice as long, which is not true. Again, I know the numbers cited in the post are not actual predictors of career length, but wide receivers and cornerbacks face the same turnover as running backs. All else being equal, the career length of a good wide receiver should not be that much longer than that of a good running back.

What I think we are really looking for is to determine the shelf life of the average NFL starter. How long can we expect them to play at an effective starter level? How long before they become worn, broken, or simply old? That's what would really be helpful. I want to know how long we can expect a player with talent to play before wear, tear, and injuries make it so that player no longer plays up to the level of that talent. Not how long we can expect a team to keep a player around who never had any of that talent.

I would love to have this information, but I could not find it anywhere. The best I could do is find some articles that pointed to age 30 as the time when a good running back's performance begins to decline.

The decline can certainly be attributed to the beating that running backs take, but another factor is that we generally decline physically around that age. Although wide receivers and cornerbacks aren't taking the same beating as a running back, they face the same physical decline. And since all three positions rely so much on speed, that could be a reason why their careers are shorter when compared with other positions.

[Triplethreat]

Using the stats you made up in your head about any of these guys makes you look retarded.

You have nothing to prove your point, again...it's becoming your forte.

You're really going to make me do this.


Buffalo Bills
Fred Jackson -- 170 carries
C.J. Spiller -- 107 carries

Miami Dolphins
Reggie Bush -- 216 carries
Daniel Thomas -- 165 carries

NY Giants
Bradshaw -- 171
Jacobs -- 152

Kansas City Chiefs
Jackie Battie -- 149
Dexter McCluster -- 114

Teams with elite RB's

Philadelphia Eagles
LeSean McCoy -- 273
Ronnie Brown -- 43

Atlanta Falcons
Michael Turner -- 301
Jacquizz Rogers -- 57

Tennessee Titans
Chris Johnson -- 262
Javon Ringer -- 59

Jacksonville Jags
MJD -- 343
Deji Karim -- 63

Of course it's a small sample, but this trend continues through every team you look at. Richardson is an every down back. Those other guys are not.

[The Hill]

TheOBR has learned the Browns have QB Kirk Cousins rated within the top-five at the position and will consider him from the second round on, in the draft.

I am warming up to the idea of Cousins in a Browns uniform. I read a fantastic post about him on the OBR forums a couple of days ago:

At first glance it appears as though he's a good decision maker. But what sealed the deal for me was his internal clock. He takes the snap and throws the ball. The browns spent all of last year drilling Colt McCoy to do this. Our offense is based on getting the ball out of your hands. Of the film I watched he RARELY threw the ball late or tried to hold it. It's not that important in college. But it's crucial in the NFL and that's where a lot of scouting breaks down from the two levels. Some players are GREAT in college but they don't throw the ball on time and at the NFL level they get creamed. Colt was notorious for this. Cousins is rock solid from what I've seen.

The next key evaluation is the players FEAR for lack of a better word of throwing into coverage. Most college QB's will hold the ball and find an open WR. From what I saw Cousins stuck the ball into coverage over and over and over again. In college that doesn't produce gawdy numbers but it's crucial in the NFL. Almost nobody is open and you have to trust your WR's. You have to throw the ball. There is no way aorund it. Holding it and playing street ball gets you nowhere in the long run because teams will start zone blitzing you and eventually get turnovers. That's absolutely huge for a player coming out of college and a can't miss evaluation point when trying to convert a guy to the next level.

From those aspects we move to talent. Kirk Cousins has solid height 6'3" and a solid frame to add weight. Many 6'3 QB's have been successful in the NFL most notably Aaron Rodgers. In terms of Arm Strength he's well above average. If Colt McCoy has an average Arm Cousins rings in somewhere between well above average and good. He throws an excellent pass to the flats and that's sometimes the best evaluation of arm strength because the QB is forced to use his arm more than his body to complete the quick screen.

This is from a very long post, so I recommend you check out the whole thing if you're interested.

For another perspective, here is what Scouts, Inc. has to say about Cousins:

Mental Makeup: 2 (1 being the best, 5 being the worst)
Has ample experience with 39 career starts in a pro-style system. Will be ahead of the learning curve in terms of understanding protections and making pro-style reads when getting into a camp next July. Flashes ability to get through progressions but doesn't always see the entire field and will lock onto target at times. Structurally sound and plays within the system. Willing to take his check downs and knows when to throw the ball away to fight another down. Will get into trouble trying to anticipate and thread the needle into coverage on occasion. Appears to have a solid internal clock when feeling pressure. Tough both physically and mentally. Will sit in the pocket and deliver throw knowing he is going to take a shot. Smart and has a good feel for situational football. Also was successful more than not running the two minute drill late in the fourth quarter with the game on the line.

Accuracy: 2
Displays above-average accuracy when on schedule and able to throw with good rhythm and timing. Also displays adequate touch and can change up projections and ball speeds to drop the ball into a window with intermediate throws. When has room to step into throws can throw receivers open away from coverage. Accuracy can dip when unable to set feet and does not have the unique trait to consistently deliver accurate throw when off-balance. Also will fall off throws when throwing to his left and can miss the mark on an occasion as a result. Deep ball accuracy is adequate but has room for improvement in terms of touch and projection.

Release/Arm Strength: 3
"Possesses an over-the-top to ¾ release. Has a bit of a wind up but gets the ball out relatively quickly. Can make all the necessary NFL throws. Gets adequate zip on deep out throw from opposite hash. However, does not have elite arm strength such as the likes of Matt Stafford or Joe Flacco to stretch the field vertically. "

Pocket Mobility: 3
"Limited overall athlete. However, moves well enough to buy time within the pocket. Can feel edge pressure and climb the pocket when need be. Doesn't always sense backside pressure though and can hold onto the ball too long. Lacks elite ability to escape pressure and buy time. Will never be a running threat at the next level. "

[b00bie]

Of course it's a small sample, but this trend continues through every team you look at. Richardson is an every down back. Those other guys are not.

I have absolutely zero reason to believe there are other guys than Richardson who will be an everydown back.

And apparently, you don't have a reason either. Considering you can't give us one.

[Triplethreat]

I have absolutely zero reason to believe there are other guys than Richardson who will be an everydown back.

And apparently, you don't have a reason either. Considering you can't give us one.

Okay, maybe I was a little extreme saying for sure that they won't be. I just know Richardson is a sure thing to be an every down back in this league and I don't see any reason to pass it up when our biggest hole is at that exact same position.

[b00bie]

Just glad you can admit your irrational logic in light of the fact youve got a new crush.

Richardson will be fine, but running back production is the most easily replaceable facet of an offense to replace.

And value wise, the kid better be Adrian Peterson...I don't think anyone is certain Richardson is that guy.

More importantly, he's probably not the best player on the board at 4.

[Phills14]

You're really going to make me do this.


Buffalo Bills
Fred Jackson -- 170 carries
C.J. Spiller -- 107 carries

Miami Dolphins
Reggie Bush -- 216 carries
Daniel Thomas -- 165 carries

NY Giants
Bradshaw -- 171
Jacobs -- 152

Kansas City Chiefs
Jackie Battie -- 149
Dexter McCluster -- 114

Teams with elite RB's

Philadelphia Eagles
LeSean McCoy -- 273
Ronnie Brown -- 43

Atlanta Falcons
Michael Turner -- 301
Jacquizz Rogers -- 57

Tennessee Titans
Chris Johnson -- 262
Javon Ringer -- 59

Jacksonville Jags
MJD -- 343
Deji Karim -- 63

Of course it's a small sample, but this trend continues through every team you look at. Richardson is an every down back. Those other guys are not.

You picked 8 teams for your sample and I'm not sure what you are trying to prove.
2 were playoff teams (1 was the super bowl champion)
The other 6 were all under 500.

If you are trying to prove that the debate between RB by committe vs every down back is meaningless, then I guess I see your point.

[GonzoRatso88]

The guys on the OBR make it sound like Heckert wont take Richardson at 4 but will take him at 6. They said he wants thinks getting Richardson at 6 is a "value pick". Right now, I think its down to Blackmon/Claiborne at 4 or Richardson at 6... which is something most of us Browns fans know.

[JMcCurry08]

But he wont be there at 6 unless Tampa trades for a running back. I think we should take him at 4 and just let it be