Serious question: could ISIS withstand a joint offensive by these forces? I would think not. What is the best estimate of their number of fighters? I read something like 40,000. Not only are numbers not on their side, I have to assume equipment, training, etc are not on their side either. Now an insurgency is one thing, but how difficult could this be for such an offensive to take place? Backed by American air power (and the Jordanians are no joke in this department either) wouldn't this be highly effective in crippling and destroying the power base of ISIS?
God forbid we put our own boots on the ground. I doubt that happens. The administration seems to believe our air power backing Arab ground forces are what is necessary. But imagine 20,000 U.S. Marines entering the fray too. Would ISIS even stand a lick of a chance? But again that won't happen. Still I'd think the combined Peshmerga, Iraqi Army, and other forces you mentioned would be more than enough to destroy ISIS.
Is this the type of thing that is just going to take a bunch of time but the outcome is not in doubt? It's frustrating. People are being butchered and we have to read and watch it every week.
The problem with these shitheads is you will destroy their power base and effectively shut them down but then begins the "insurgency" that seems to define modern warfare where they will keep killing people in a futile effort and retaliation with suicide bombs and the like. But that's a better alternative to letting them have their own goddam state like they do right now.
A true offensive would cripple Daesh but I doubt one summer of fighting would finish them off. Now, we don't have confirmation on whether Iraq would allow foreign troops to assist in an offensive. However, it is a good possibility as more and more of the populace in neighboring nations demand action. The Jordanians are massing on the border and I don't think they are there to get a tan.
1. Latest estimates put Daesh at around 8,000-13,000 core fighters. By rallying allied extremist groups, they can maybe boast 30,000. However, those forces are scattered over two countries and movement in mass is difficult due to poor logistics train and domination of the air by coalition forces.
2. Obviously, the RJA, Turkish Army, IA and Pesh can field a lot more troops than that. The Jordanians and Turks have superior equipment, training, leadership and logistics. The IA and the Kurds are of much lesser quality with poor logistics support. There are 10,000 US troops in Iraq at present. Everything from advisors and Special Forces to support troops.
3. The problem is that a fanatical enemy with every expectation that they will be shot on sight if captured will fight hard and to the last bullet. They will inflict many casualties.
What an Offensive May Look Like
If it were up to me as King, I would conduct an offensive led by the Jordanians in the south, and the Turks in the north driving toward each other with the IA providing more troops and US officers in an advisory capacity. US Special Forces and the SAS are already on the ground conducting recon missions and other less than savory operations including C3 node destruction. Coalition air forces will make Daesh movement impossible. The end state of this offensive would be the splitting of Daesh in two, severe attrition of ISIS forces and equipment, degrading of ISIS support zones and the liberation of as much territory as possible.
1. Jordanian and Turkish heavy forces, with the elite IA units, will constitute the spearheads while the rest of the IA serve as support troops and hold captured territory.
2. IA forces around Baghdad will conduct a local offensive toward Falluja and Taji as a holding action to prevent ISIS reinforcement and to give the capital more breathing room.
3. Coalition forces should aim to split Daesh forces in two and separate Iraq from Syria with armored pincers closing at Qaim. I anticipate that Daesh retreats from outlying areas and concentrate in their core support zone of the Sunni triangle.
As the fight goes into urban centers, progress will bog down as Daesh consolidates their defenses and airpower becomes constrained. Maintaining pressure throughout the winter will prevent Daesh from reconsolidating and a fall or winter offensive would administer the
coup de grace.