I keep thinking of those early games against Memphis when Memphis bullied Golden State. And then I recall how we bullied Memphis and beat them down by 30 or whatever it was late in the season. Iirc, they were missing Conley, but the impressive part is how we beat them up inside. We owned Zach Randolph and generally pushed them around inside. Referencing, we outrébounded them 49-32 holding Gasol and Randolph to a combined 23 points on bad shooting. Love did have a big game, so that absence hurts, but TT+ LBJ are making Love's absence on the boards not that much of a factor. We just miss his spacing badly.
Memphis slightly outrebounded GS for the series. They lost because they shot so poorly from the field and were horrible from 3, with games of made 3s of 4,5,3,5,4,4 and shot in the 20s %. And they took like 15-19 per game. I don't see anyone holding us to 3 point shooting in that range with the looks Lebron creates. We should outrebound them almost every game.
That GS/Memphis series turned when they abandoned guarding TA, and kind of clogged the middle on defense. Can't do that with our perimeter defenders as they can also knock down shots. Wish we had a little more interior scoring because Moz can't do what Marc Gasol did, but I see us going big and forcing them to match. Forcing them off the 3 point line on defense and make them drive against Moz and TT.
For as good as they are and as banged up as we are, I think we can give them serious issues. Feel like we rise or fall with play of JR and Shump. Clearly LBJ makes everything go, but I assume he'll be himself and rested, but those two need to both defend and shoot well. If they play above expectation as they have been with added help from Delly and hopefully a healthy Kyrie, it could bode well. Lebron has shot way way below expectation from 3. He hasn't shot this bad ever. If he just improved from historically bad to below average, it's going to be huge.
We need TT to check Draymond, and I like our chances. That OKC team that the Heat beat with Harden, Durant, and Westbrook were potent, but green. They didn't defend as well as this GS team, but the ability on the perimeter to push around the slighter OKC guys was big. This series has a few similarities to that situation if we can press the shooters.
They've also been getting away with being really sloppy with the ball. That's not a good habit against a team with LBJ.
We're dogs for sure, but I see myself on the ML for us on series big if it comes in at projected +230 vig free. Usually I have a hard time finding vig free action for serious numbers, but I have a whole lot of GS fans and western homers in my circle to lay off on this one.
I feel we are just slight dogs, not over 2-1. We can get them into a grind it out mess that doesn't favor them, and their stars are mostly slight guys who don't like getting touched up. We can muck this one up hopefully and win it ugly.