New cap projection for next year has the cap number at
$92mil and the luxury tax at $111mil.
How does this affect the Cavs?
If you assume LeBron signs a 2 year max*, his salary will be $30.59 million. Add in salaries for KLove, Irving, TT, Shump, Frye, JR, Mo, Kaun and McRae**, and the Cavs are at $113.3mil, with Delly and Moz as free agents.
The number the Cavs would like to stay below is $115mil. This is known as the "apron". If the Cavs can stay below it for the entire season, they can execute a sign and trade and they can use the full MLE ($5.6mil) instead of the tax MLE ($3.4mil).
It seems very hard for the Cavs to stay under this $115mil number. It would likely take losing Delly and Moz as well as getting rid of someone like Frye or Shump.*** And even then, you still have 6 roster spots to fill on the cheap.
In relation to the Gasol rumors, it seems unlikely we can offer him the full 5.6mil MLE. More likely he'd have to settle for the 3.4mil.
*He can sign a 1 year max for $28.8 million and then get a full 5 year max next offseason.
**JR isn't guaranteed, but I assume we'll keep him. McRae is not guaranteed, but his salary is so low I expect we'll keep him as well. Everyone else is guaranteed.
***And by "get rid" I mean trade them to a team with cap space in which we'd likely have to attach a draft pick.