With the Trae Young debate raging on, figure I'd add a breakdown I did recently about where I see Young now and going forward..
Trae Young and in honor of the three
There are players that make you go 'wow'.
After watching five games of Oklahoma freshman guard
Trae Young, I can say he's one of them.
For plays he makes and for plays he doesn't make, the 'wow' moments are there.
Young to Oklahoma is like the sun to its planets. The gravitational pull that he has on his teammates is immense. The team, the offense and the game all revolve around what he does with the ball.
Just as day and night alternate between patterns on Earth, so too does the Oklahoma offense when Young is on the floor versus on the bench.
Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger has entrusted Young as the catalyst of the offense. The ball and their NCAA tournament life is in the freshman's hands.
What's remarkable about his season thus far is the efficiency and success he's had with the burden placed on his shoulders.
This entry, courtesy of
NBAstuffer, defining usage rate can also be applied to Young's season.
What defines a superstar, in
Dean Oliver‘s statistical analysis, is that he can shoulder a larger proportion of a team’s possessions with only a relatively small drop in efficiency. Meanwhile, the opposite is also true: players perform more efficiently when they are asked to use fewer of their team’s possessions. As a result, the greater burden on the superstar means that supporting players maintain low usage rates, allowing them to operate closer to their peak efficiency.
As of writing, Young is posting a NCAA leading 38.5% usage rate. In other words, he's using an estimated 38.5% of the team's plays while on the floor.
To put that in perspective, the next closest qualified player this season is Campbell's
Chris Clemons at 35.4%.
Using Sports Reference's
Player Season Finder, only three other guards have posted a higher USG% (with a qualifier of 400+ minutes played) the last ten years:
Ronnie Boyce III (39.6%),
Tiwian Kendley (39.5%) and
Chris Clemons (38.7%).
To use a high percentage of possessions is one thing. But to be efficient in using those possessions is another.
Young currently leads the NCAA in points per game, assists per game, points produced per game and offensive plus/minus, is second in PER and third in offensive win shares.
Of collegiate players the last ten years with
at least 400 minutes played and a usage rate of 30%, Young ranks first in offensive plus/minus (13), third in PER (32), seventh in TS% (60.6%), 10th in eFG% (54.4%) and 13th in oRTG (119.5).
This is all with six games still left in Oklahoma's regular season.
Stats aren't the primary way to evaluate a prospect but they do hold value in matching up what is in the box score versus what is on the court. Does a prospect live up to his stats? If not, where is the disconnect?
In honor of
Trae Young and his famed three-point stroke, the following are three clips to best sum him up as a NBA prospect.
One...
I've
said it on Twitter and I'll say it here: passing is his best NBA trait.
Young is known for his pull-up threes, long distance bombs and terrific offensive outputs, but his playmaking is what should excite NBA teams most.
It's one thing to find your own shot but it's another to be able to find a shot consistently for others.
In Young's matchup versus fellow freshman phenom Collin Sexton, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla often noted Young's' 'early eyes'. He has a penchant for finding players early on the break or streaking big men racing to beat opposing bigs for a rim run.
For me, this was the first 'wow' moment.
View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/942981932073222144
A missed shot but nonetheless, not many guards can make this pass.
With the shot clock running down at the end of the half, Young is able to create off the dribble and get into the lane on a mismatch.
Stopping the clip at 0:02, there are two options: force a floater over the oncoming big or force a pass to the corner shooter, with the risk of it being intercepted by the weakside defender.
Instead, Young manages to hang in the air long enough to create a direct passing lane for a corner three. With one hand, he bullets a perfect pass for an end of the quarter three-point attempt.
This example displays his ability to find players that are open and players that also don't seem open. This shows up time and time again in many of his games.
Through his vision and playmaking instincts, he is able to create opportunities for his teammates.
Two...
This is what he is best known for. Not the two, but his three-point shot. Some more ridiculous than others but he puts an enormous amount of stress on the defense because of his range and quickness in getting up long-distance shots.
Sometimes to his own disadvantage, Young can trust in his shot
too much. But as a shooter, you need ultimate confidence in your shot to forget previous misses and manage inevitable slumps.
What he is currently navigating is when and where to take the right shot. Not every shot is the right shot, even when there's an opportunity to hoist.
This has been a learning progression throughout the season, especially with a team that relies so much on his explosive outputs.
Young is attempting 10.5 three-pointers per game. It's a large part of his game because he doesn't need much space to get it off but he's also efficient (38.5%).
In today's NBA, spacing is so important. Putting a player like Young on the floor creates stressors for the defense because he can shoot it well and does so with little effort.
View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/959139584444715008
Young has an on-balance, quick shooting motion that allows for little space and little time for him to get a clean look.
What often separates a players' ability to elevate his offensive game from role player to primary offensive option is shooting off the dribble.
Most of Young's looks come on the ball, off-the-dribble. His ability to get his own shot from deep and in the mid-range will allow him to continue to shoulder the scoring load once he transitions to the NBA.
Three...
Adaptability is the name of the game.
Once the scouting report gets out, defenses will alter their coverage, how they play the offensive player and force the player into weak areas. If the offensive player is unable to come up to solutions to new problems, then their impact level will be minimized.
Young is currently going through this at the collegiate level.
In his first 11 games, he shot below 40% from the field just once.
In his next 11 games, he shot below 40% from the field seven times.
Teams have begun to crowd Young, take the ball out of his hands early and get physical. The scouting report was out on him, especially after West Virginia's
Jevon Carter managed to limit his effectiveness.
View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/952362331622793216
In his first 11 games, Young had attempted 11+ three-pointers just once.
In his next 11 games, he attempted 11+ three-pointers six times.
The field goal percentage and three-point attempts are likely correlated, but they show a shift in Young's game based on how teams were guarding him. He can be reduced to settling for more perimeter shots, with not always the most efficient looks.
But to Young's credit, while he began to launch more threes, he also began to be more aggressive in getting to the line.
In his first 11 games, he attempted 10+ free throws just twice.
In his next 11 games, he attempted 10+ free throws seven times.
For a 84% free-throw shooter, this is the ultimate way to counteract some of the inefficient shooting from the field: get to the line and create easy opportunities.
I wrote about it on
Twitter but Young is a player built for the modern game. As of writing, only five players since 1992-1993 have had collegiate seasons of 9+ 3PTA per game and 8+ FTA per game. That's a pretty incredible balance and should make the NBA stat revolution smile.
What Young is going through is the maturation process most young scorers have to go through. What is a good shot, how to pick your spots and how to balance team success with personal scoring success.
Oklahoma relies so much on his production, the learning curve has been steep and there's not much time, or help, for Young to figure it out. Despite that, he's still having a historic season while performing at a maximum usage level.
What should give NBA teams reason for optimism, is what the stats godfather Dean Oliver mentioned earlier: he can shoulder a larger proportion of a team’s possessions with only a relatively small drop in efficiency.
Teams have seen what he can do while shouldering the load, which should mean with less placed on his plate, there should be a correlating rise in efficiency.
In a best case scenario, Young will be able to go to a team with an established, veteran scorer where he can learn his way through carrying a team. That's not always the case for teams drafting high, where he is likely to go, which could hurt his initial production.
But, Young is too smart, too talented and too skilled of a player to
not figure it out.
His stats and his play elicit 'wow' reactions and so should his NBA success.