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2019 NBA Draft Lottery

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I won't post Sam Vecenie's full mock draft on The Athletic, but here's #5 with the Cavaliers taking Culver.



He also links to his full scouting report of Culver from January 2019. If you have a subscription, it's worth a read.

Items like work ethic and future growth are difficult to assess for fans as it often requires vetting of the prospects on an individual basis

With a teacher like Beilein and the work ethic like Sexton and--allegedly--Culver have, you really would have an interesting situation brewing.
Culver is going to be the pick if he is available at 5,,,seems like a perfect fit. The icing on the cake is you have to "lock him out of the gym" ,,,,seems like the same attitude Sexton had coming from Alabama.
Guys that are willing to work their asses off like Sexton did last year have the ability to become so much better than anyone thought they could be.
That's the guy I want.
 
Culver is going to be the pick if he is available at 5,,,seems like a perfect fit. The icing on the cake is you have to "lock him out of the gym" ,,,,seems like the same attitude Sexton had coming from Alabama.
Guys that are willing to work their asses off like Sexton did last year have the ability to become so much better than anyone thought they could be.
That's the guy I want.

Having two workaholics leading the franchise is very enticing. I still think Hunter gets a slight nod over Culver, but we’ll see. I have no idea what to expect at #4, as we don’t even know who will be making that pick.
 
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Good question. Maybe ‘after-thought’ wasn’t the best word to use. Here’s a list of players that went to Duke and are in the NBA:


Many of them did not have starring roles at Duke, but have gone on to have successful careers in the NBA.

Right...but what we're looking for is evidence that Coach K's system/approach takes very good players and makes them look worse than they really are. So that's why we were looking for 1) 5 star recruits who 2) underperformed in the NBA, but 3) went on to become true stars in the NBA. Because that's supposedly the situation with Reddish.

Just looking through that list, I don't see anyone that fits. So I'm not sure there's much support for the idea that Coach K suppresses the production of star players.

That being said, I also don't remember -- again, not following college basketball closely -- a time when Duke had 2 guys as good as Zion and Barrett ahead of another top 10 guy.
 
Recent Duke NBA players by college box plus/minus:

DEjI1.png


At least by this measure, only a few star prospects in recent years have struggled as much as Reddish at Duke. His company down there isn't very flattering...
 
Right...but what we're looking for is evidence that Coach K's system/approach takes very good players and makes them look worse than they really are. So that's why we were looking for 1) 5 star recruits who 2) underperformed in the NBA, but 3) went on to become true stars in the NBA. Because that's supposedly the situation with Reddish.

Just looking through that list, I don't see anyone that fits. So I'm not sure there's much support for the idea that Coach K suppresses the production of star players.

That being said, I also don't remember -- again, not following college basketball closely -- a time when Duke had 2 guys as good as Zion and Barrett ahead of another top 10 guy.

The other really talented Duke team that I recall was the 1998-‘99 Blue Devils. They were so deep & talented that Corey Maggette, who became the 13th pick in the ‘99 draft, came off the bench. Somewhat infamously, Cavs GM Wayne Embry bypassed Maggette, who went on to have a good NBA career, in favor of his teammate and Duke starter, Trajan Langdon. Langdon became a flat out bust in the NBA. Then again, Embry put a premium on experience and almost refused to pick anyone that didn’t have at least 3 years of college experience.
 
The other really talented Duke team that I recall was the 1998-‘99 Blue Devils. They were so deep & talented that Corey Maggette, who became the 13th pick in the ‘99 draft, came off the bench. Somewhat infamously, Cavs GM Wayne Embry bypassed Maggette, who went on to have a good NBA career, in favor of his teammate and Duke starter, Trajan Langdon. Langdon became a flat out bust in the NBA. Then again, Embry put a premium on experience and almost refused to pick anyone that didn’t have at least 3 years of college experience.

Right, and that's an interesting comparison. 4 Duke players went in the top 14. Brand, Langdon, Maggette and Avery. But it doesn't seem like playing with other good players actually hurt the stock of any of those guys. Brand obviously went No. 1, and Maggette at 13 probably about where he should have gone. But Langdon at 11 and Avery at 14 clearly were overdrafted. Coach K made them look better than they really were. So the idea that Zion/Barrett and Coach K made Reddish look bad...still not sure there's any evidence supporting that.
 
Right, and that's an interesting comparison. 4 Duke players went in the top 14. Brand, Langdon, Maggette and Avery. But it doesn't seem like playing with other good players actually hurt the stock of any of those guys. Brand obviously went No. 1, and Maggette at 13 probably about where he should have gone. But Langdon at 11 and Avery at 14 clearly were overdrafted. Coach K made them look better than they really were. So the idea that Zion/Barrett and Coach K made Reddish look bad...still not sure there's any evidence supporting that.
K was in his prime then. Now it is just summer ball.....
 
Right, and that's an interesting comparison. 4 Duke players went in the top 14. Brand, Langdon, Maggette and Avery. But it doesn't seem like playing with other good players actually hurt the stock of any of those guys. Brand obviously went No. 1, and Maggette at 13 probably about where he should have gone. But Langdon at 11 and Avery at 14 clearly were overdrafted. Coach K made them look better than they really were. So the idea that Zion/Barrett and Coach K made Reddish look bad...still not sure there's any evidence supporting that.

Clearly, you’ve misunderstood me. I’m not saying Coach K made them look bad. The situation at Duke- playing with 3 ball-dominant players, in RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson, & Tre Jones- was a difficult one for Reddish. He couldn’t really show everything that he is capable of. I would’ve loved to see what he could do as a first or second option at another school.
 
If Cavs want to shoot for elite ceiling players(with Zion,Ja,Barrett and Garland gone):
1. Sekou
2 Little
3 Bol
4 Kevin Porter
5 Reddish
If they want safe starter ceiling players:
1 Culver
2 Hunter
3 Washington
4 Clarke
5 Herro
If they want a balance of both high production and high ceiling but not elite:
1. White
2. Goga
3 Hachimura
4 Langford
5 Hayes
 
If Cavs want to shoot for elite ceiling players(with Zion,Ja,Barrett and Garland gone):
1. Sekou
2 Little
3 Bol
4 Kevin Porter
5 Reddish
If they want safe starter ceiling players:
1 Culver
2 Hunter
3 Washington
4 Clarke
5 Herro
If they want a balance of both high production and high ceiling but not elite:
1. White
2. Goga
3 Hachimura
4 Langford
5 Hayes

I am now firmly in the “Take Culver at 5 and trade back into the lottery for a high-ceiling guy” camp.
 
After listening to latest dunc’d on, I’m scared to draft culver

Ive never listen to this podcast before but I went and just wanted to hear what they say. In this episode the Culver stuff starts at around 28 minutes. I listened to 26 minutes of Philly when I could have skipped ahead.

They really say some of the stuff that have concerned me with Culver. They broke it down real well on why they don't like him. If anyone is real high on Culver, it would be worth listening for perspective.
 
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