AllforOne
... and I'm all out of bubblegum.
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2014
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(TL;DR - none. Don't fucking read it if you don't want to. You're an adult.)
Where do we go now? Where do we go? Where do we go now?
Nope, we're not talking about Guns n' Roses. We know where they went -- they took over a decade (delayed by various side projects that were little more than heroin-induced noise and by Axl getting the mother of all facelifts) to record the industry's most irrelevant album ever.
I'm wondering what route the Cavs are going to take with building their roster for 2019-20 and beyond.
Right now, they have 14 players under contract for next season -- Love, Tristan, Swish (we know he won't be here, but he is for the moment), Knight, Clarkson, Nance, Henson, Delly, Garland, Sexton, Cedi, Zizic, Wheeler, and KPJ. So on the face of it, this roster is pretty much built already. Thread over, right?
That's not why I called. I see two basic philosophies that the Cavs can take over the next year. I'm wondering which one they will.
As you may know already, most of the Cavs' current salary obligations end at the conclusion of the 2019-20 season. Tristan, Swish, Knight, Clarkson, Henson, Delly, and Cedi are all going to be free agents. (Zizic could be as well, if the Cavs decline his fourth-year option.) That's roughly $85.5 million of salaries that will disappear. Assuming that the Cavs pick up the options for Sexton (guaranteed) and Zizic (probable), they have only $63.7 million in salary commitments for the 2020-21 season. Even figuring in a new contract for Cedi, they'll have plenty of cap room (the current estimate for the 2020-21 cap is $116 million) to go free-agent hunting.
So that's Option #1. Let all those veterans play out their contracts, then re-make the team a year from now with Love ...
QUICK NOTE: Yes, I am well aware that Kevin Love may or may not be a good fit for a rebuilding roster. I'm not here to debate that one way or the other. It's sucked up plenty of other threads on this site. I'm going to assume, however realistically, that Love will be here going forward.
Now where were we? Okay, they could let all the contracts expire, then re-make the team next summer with Love, Nance, Garland, Sexton, Windler, KPJ, and maybe Zizic as they only obligations. That's the more flexible route. It's the route that would allow them to possibly bring in a star player via free agency.
But it's not the route I would take. I'd go for option #2. I'd go for one more year of trading expiring contracts for veterans with longer contracts, along with draft picks/young players. Trade JR for a contract that expires in 2020 (Marvin Williams? MKG? Ryan Anderson?), and get a future first-round pick or two as the cost of doing business. Then repeat that same process with whoever they get in that trade and all of their other expirings (TT, Clarkson, Henson, Delly, Knight). By this time next year, the Cavs could have an absolute bumper crop of future picks along with a whole bunch of contracts that expire in the summer of 2021.
The one other complication is the luxury tax. The Cavs probably want to be below the tax line for 2019-20. So by the end of the 2019-20 regular season, they need to have their total salaries at no more than the tax line. The tax line is estimated to be $132 million; the Cavs are currently about $13 million above that number, counting the JR contract.
The way to get around that (or at least, *one* way to get around that): when trading expiring contracts for longer ones, make sure that the expiring guys make more in 2019-20 than the guys who are coming back. As an example: the Cavs could trade Tristan to Charlotte for Cody Zeller and pick(s). Charlotte would get the more useful player for winning now, and they would also get out from under Zeller's $15.4 million for 2020-21. The Cavs, in turn, would save about $4 million in 2019-20 salary. Lather/rinse/repeat that same process with Clarkson/Knight/Henson, etc., and they'll be below the tax line.
The bottom line is that a year from now, I want the Cavs to have a growing core, a bunch of vets whose contracts expire in 2021, and a metric shit-ton of picks in future drafts. Two years from now, I want them to have a clean cap and the ability to (a) sign a big-name FA, (b) trade for a disgruntled superstar using some of that MST of picks, or (c) both. Three years from now, I want to be back to late-May/June basketball.
Agree, disagree, don't care?
Where do we go now? Where do we go? Where do we go now?
Nope, we're not talking about Guns n' Roses. We know where they went -- they took over a decade (delayed by various side projects that were little more than heroin-induced noise and by Axl getting the mother of all facelifts) to record the industry's most irrelevant album ever.
I'm wondering what route the Cavs are going to take with building their roster for 2019-20 and beyond.
Right now, they have 14 players under contract for next season -- Love, Tristan, Swish (we know he won't be here, but he is for the moment), Knight, Clarkson, Nance, Henson, Delly, Garland, Sexton, Cedi, Zizic, Wheeler, and KPJ. So on the face of it, this roster is pretty much built already. Thread over, right?
That's not why I called. I see two basic philosophies that the Cavs can take over the next year. I'm wondering which one they will.
As you may know already, most of the Cavs' current salary obligations end at the conclusion of the 2019-20 season. Tristan, Swish, Knight, Clarkson, Henson, Delly, and Cedi are all going to be free agents. (Zizic could be as well, if the Cavs decline his fourth-year option.) That's roughly $85.5 million of salaries that will disappear. Assuming that the Cavs pick up the options for Sexton (guaranteed) and Zizic (probable), they have only $63.7 million in salary commitments for the 2020-21 season. Even figuring in a new contract for Cedi, they'll have plenty of cap room (the current estimate for the 2020-21 cap is $116 million) to go free-agent hunting.
So that's Option #1. Let all those veterans play out their contracts, then re-make the team a year from now with Love ...
QUICK NOTE: Yes, I am well aware that Kevin Love may or may not be a good fit for a rebuilding roster. I'm not here to debate that one way or the other. It's sucked up plenty of other threads on this site. I'm going to assume, however realistically, that Love will be here going forward.
Now where were we? Okay, they could let all the contracts expire, then re-make the team next summer with Love, Nance, Garland, Sexton, Windler, KPJ, and maybe Zizic as they only obligations. That's the more flexible route. It's the route that would allow them to possibly bring in a star player via free agency.
But it's not the route I would take. I'd go for option #2. I'd go for one more year of trading expiring contracts for veterans with longer contracts, along with draft picks/young players. Trade JR for a contract that expires in 2020 (Marvin Williams? MKG? Ryan Anderson?), and get a future first-round pick or two as the cost of doing business. Then repeat that same process with whoever they get in that trade and all of their other expirings (TT, Clarkson, Henson, Delly, Knight). By this time next year, the Cavs could have an absolute bumper crop of future picks along with a whole bunch of contracts that expire in the summer of 2021.
The one other complication is the luxury tax. The Cavs probably want to be below the tax line for 2019-20. So by the end of the 2019-20 regular season, they need to have their total salaries at no more than the tax line. The tax line is estimated to be $132 million; the Cavs are currently about $13 million above that number, counting the JR contract.
The way to get around that (or at least, *one* way to get around that): when trading expiring contracts for longer ones, make sure that the expiring guys make more in 2019-20 than the guys who are coming back. As an example: the Cavs could trade Tristan to Charlotte for Cody Zeller and pick(s). Charlotte would get the more useful player for winning now, and they would also get out from under Zeller's $15.4 million for 2020-21. The Cavs, in turn, would save about $4 million in 2019-20 salary. Lather/rinse/repeat that same process with Clarkson/Knight/Henson, etc., and they'll be below the tax line.
The bottom line is that a year from now, I want the Cavs to have a growing core, a bunch of vets whose contracts expire in 2021, and a metric shit-ton of picks in future drafts. Two years from now, I want them to have a clean cap and the ability to (a) sign a big-name FA, (b) trade for a disgruntled superstar using some of that MST of picks, or (c) both. Three years from now, I want to be back to late-May/June basketball.
Agree, disagree, don't care?