The Kevin Stefanski: Two-Time Coach of the Year Thread

Huber. said:

He's literally a bright, young offensive playcaller.

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Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

Why does our culture keep turning fundamental topics into toxic words? How is "analytics" this bad/taboo thing all of a sudden? Just like the "smartest men in the room" is a bad thing (I understand the idea is that they aren't smart, but want to act like they're the smartest men in the room, but that meaning has been lost now).

It's frustrating.

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jking948 said:

@MoFlo @Jack Brickman @Alec Zander

You guys do realize Vrabel is one of the most analytics-open coaches in the NFL? On the defensive end, outside of Belichick, he probably uses analytics more than anyone. The Titans tend to use four or fewer men to rush the passer (they relied on three/four-man rushes on 63/94 snaps against Baltimore), forces teams to concentrate most passes between 5-10 yards and allows nearly one "point per reception" less on deep passes than the league average (http://airyards.com/team_defense.html), and use a disguised-zone coverage system. These all are defensive strategies lauded by analytics - so I am really not sure where Vrabel's defense and analytics are inconsistent.

Also, the Titans offense uses the run to set up play action. In terms of play success rate and estimated points added statistics, play action is the most efficient play in football. Hell, the Titans scored a touchdown from heavy personnel on first down via play-action.

Another point about offense, Vrabel uses pre-snap motion on 61% of play-action plays and 30% on non-play-action, which respectively ranks fourth- and third-most in the NFL. Thus, by the numbers, the TItans' offense uses the two most efficient offensive strategies in football, which is totally in-line with analytics.

The Titans took an early lead and then used Baltimore's offensive strategy against them. The Ravens like to take long offensive drives that take time off the clock, the Titans gambled that if you force Baltimore to score quickly then they will turn the ball over, and that is exactly what happened.

Ultimately, analytics is about players, not plays. This is why the five most analytically friendly organizations in football - Eagles, Ravens, Titans, Patriots, and Rams - all play differently. Vrabel knows that the best way to run his offense is a short passing game, lots of pre-snap motion so Tannehill and Henry can read the defense, play action, and clock control.

I know people are afraid of "analytics" and "statistics." It is difficult to understand and those that practice it are called "computer geeks." But analytics is a tool. Stefanski wants this information because it will affect things like what formation to use during which downs and quarters, what plays to run out of those formations, which receivers to have on the field, if the defense should play more man or zone coverage against a specific opponent, etc. But, in order to get this data, he needs to submit his gameplan to the analytics department on Friday so they can have the data ready at a moment's notice. Analytics will not, however, alter Stefanski's main strategy. It will help him focus on the information he needs to best define and execute that strategy.

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cisko96 said:

Spot on.

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Harlie Rider said:

Haslam and his ole lady just can't leave things alone, meddling in areas they know nothing about. Just write the checks and STFU. Sadly their plan is doomed for failure

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AZ_ said:

Going to be weird when the coaches booth sits empty.

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bigfoot5415 said:

Vrabel was on my list when we should have fired Hue. He knows football and isnt afraid to check his ego at the door. A true leader. Glad to see him having success with one of the few franchises I dont hate.

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The Human Q-Tip said:

Massively underrated quality of most good managers/leaders.

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The Human Q-Tip said:

I think that's a distinction without a difference in the context of choosing your new coach. You deliberately make "willingness to make significant use of analytics" one of the criteria for selection of a new head coach. So yes, it's technically up to him...but you only hire the guy if you know he's going to use it.

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Soda said:

I don't want to belabor the point, but I do want to express what I'm trying to say more clearly...

Personally, I think the existence of this willingness you speak of hinders your ability to truly get a look at all of the best candidates. I don't want the Browns to be losing-out on candidates because the part-time guy from SD said they should.

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Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

If a man says he wants to purposefully ignore information, that is not a man I want leading my organization.

The slight about calling DePodesta a "part-time guy from San Diego" isn't even a factor. Nobody should actively shut themselves off from information.

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Soda said:

Personally, I think the existence of this willingness you speak of hinders your ability to truly get a look at all of the best candidates. I don't want the Browns to be losing-out on candidates because the part-time guy from SD said they should.

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