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2020 Series 3 | Indians @ Twins | July 30-31 & August 1-2

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Again, it depends up on your definition of a good track record.

Zimmer K'd at a 25% rate in the minors which hot worse as he moved up...to 38% in AAA.

He also struggled with lefties, which got to the point of total annihilation as he moved up.
His strikeout rate was always high, but so was his production. Not saying he was perfect.

That 37.3% K-rate was also in his first crack at AAA after getting promoted midseason.

His track record was undoubtably good in the minors. There’s a reason he kept climbing the prospect rankings and got to play in the Futures game. That doesn’t mean there weren’t holes in his game.

PS, please start using the quote function. Or at least tag the person you’re talking to.
 
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Nobody ever said young players can't grow and make adjustments. You're arguing against stuff nobody said.
Actually, Cats seems to place a lot of importance on the minor league track record.

"But of those four, only Karinchak has MiLB track record that suggests its real...and even.there its marred by wildness"

He mentioned Zimmer as an example of a player whose MiLB track record suggests his current performance level might not be "real". I think it might be real. He figured out why he wasn't excelling and made some adjustments. The sample so far is way too small to make any predictions, but as Clevinger pointed out, he's no longer as vulnerable to the high inside stuff as he was before.

Again, it's just a question how much emphasis you put on the track record of a young, developing player against the performance you are seeing today as an athlete closer to a finished product.

I had an issue with the statement that Civale won't be successful this year if his pitch quality doesn't improve. If his pitching was good enough last year to limit the opponents to two runs or less in his first nine starts, which has never been done in franchise history, why wouldn't those same pitches be good enough this season? Whoever made that statement never explained why.
 
Also, Karinchak is currently averaging 11.3 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in four innings this year. Is that not high strikeouts and high walks? Now, four innings is a completely meaningless sample size, but I'm curious how you've come to interpret those numbers as something besides high strikeouts and high walks.
I think the issue with James is that people expected him to get himself into jams due to wildness. That hasn't happened once. He's pitched in eight major league games so far and has yet to walk two batters in a game. Yes, he has two walks in four innings this year, so you can spin that into a high walk rate, but they were in different games and neither runner scored.

Eight games is a small sample, but you'd think that if wildness was a problem he would have walked a couple batters in at least one of those games, right?

Tito thinks he will.

"There’s going to be some times we’re going to have to put our seat belts on and be patient because he’s going to lose the plate from time to time."

So far he's eight for eight in "not losing the plate". That's pretty exciting since nobody ever questioned the qaulity of his pitches.
 
Actually, Cats seems to place a lot of importance on the minor league track record.

"But of those four, only Karinchak has MiLB track record that suggests its real...and even.there its marred by wildness"

He mentioned Zimmer as an example of a player whose MiLB track record suggests his current performance level might not be "real". I think it might be real. He figured out why he wasn't excelling and made some adjustments. The sample so far is way too small to make any predictions, but as Clevinger pointed out, he's no longer as vulnerable to the high inside stuff as he was before.

Again, it's just a question how much emphasis you put on the track record of a young, developing player against the performance you are seeing today as an athlete closer to a finished product.

I had an issue with the statement that Civale won't be successful this year if his pitch quality doesn't improve. If his pitching was good enough last year to limit the opponents to two runs or less in his first nine starts, which has never been done in franchise history, why wouldn't those same pitches be good enough this season? Whoever made that statement never explained why.
Again, you need to actually read people’s posts.

All that was ever said about Civale was that he wouldn’t be able to sustain last year’s success without figuring out how to miss more bats. That’s undeniable.

And yes, minor league track record does matter for young players! It’s not everything, but nobody said it was. You need to stop with the strawmen!
 
Karinchak's line is 4.0 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 5 K's. So far the predictions that he'll blow hot and cold, walk a lot of batters, strike out a lot, and walk the tightrope in many appearances is not holding water. He hasn't been getting himself into jams with wildness. He hasn't been falling behind in counts. He's just been a very good relief pitcher who forces a lot of weak contact.

The Twins were the highest scoring team in baseball last year and coming into last night they led the majors in runs per game. Karinchak came in to face the top of their order with a two-run lead. You might expect a rookie to nibble in this situation but he went right at them. Six pitches and he was out of the inning with not a single ball being called. He never gave Nelson Cruz a chance to tie the game.

It seems like on this board fans expect pitchers to do whatever they did in the minors. Civale won't miss enough bats to be that successful because he didn't strike out that many in the minors. Karinchak will struggle with walks because he walked some guys in the minors. This organization has the best pitcher development program in baseball. They fix mechanical problems and make these guys better. Look at Clevinger, who we got for a washed up Vinnie Pestano, and Bieber, who was a 4th round pick.

At what point do you look at the pitcher that is in front of you now and say, "This is who he is" instead of "No way he can keep this up"?

In Beiber's one full season in the minors he averaged 8.4 K's per 9 innings. Last year it was 10.9 and this year he's blowing that number out of the water. Maybe this is who he really is. It's very early, but maybe this is who Karinchak really is.
Uh, those 2 walks translate to 4.5 BB/9
 
Actually, Cats seems to place a lot of importance on the minor league track record.

"But of those four, only Karinchak has MiLB track record that suggests its real...and even.there its marred by wildness"

He mentioned Zimmer as an example of a player whose MiLB track record suggests his current performance level might not be "real". I think it might be real. He figured out why he wasn't excelling and made some adjustments. The sample so far is way too small to make any predictions, but as Clevinger pointed out, he's no longer as vulnerable to the high inside stuff as he was before.

Again, it's just a question how much emphasis you put on the track record of a young, developing player against the performance you are seeing today as an athlete closer to a finished product.

I had an issue with the statement that Civale won't be successful this year if his pitch quality doesn't improve. If his pitching was good enough last year to limit the opponents to two runs or less in his first nine starts, which has never been done in franchise history, why wouldn't those same pitches be good enough this season? Whoever made that statement never explained why.

So here is my take, as good as any.

Civale's name reminds me of a Civet cat. When the Civet cat eats a coffee bean, a farmer harvests the bean from his poop and makes coffee out of it. This is the worlds most expensive cup of coffee, its called Kopi luwak. It can cost between $35-$100 for one cup.

Long story short, I used this data to make me realize that Civale is going to be a star and will end up with a very expensive contract in the future.

Check the math, its solid.
 
I think the issue with James is that people expected him to get himself into jams due to wildness. That hasn't happened once. He's pitched in eight major league games so far and has yet to walk two batters in a game. Yes, he has two walks in four innings this year, so you can spin that into a high walk rate, but they were in different games and neither runner scored.

Eight games is a small sample, but you'd think that if wildness was a problem he would have walked a couple batters in at least one of those games, right?

Tito thinks he will.

"There’s going to be some times we’re going to have to put our seat belts on and be patient because he’s going to lose the plate from time to time."

So far he's eight for eight in "not losing the plate". That's pretty exciting since nobody ever questioned the qaulity of his pitches.

Eight games is a completely meaningless sample size. That’s the only thing you need to know.

He hasn’t gotten into trouble yet this year because he hasn’t given up a hit. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that’ll change at some point.

You seem like a nice person, but the way you continue to completely ignore information given to you is maddening.
 
Now, now, guys. Play nice.

My point...and it's always been my point...is that you have to put everything into the mix in order to evaluate talent...what you see, what the track record says, and what the trend for each player is.

And focusing on minute sample sizes at the start of any season is risky.

Already, there have been multiple posters who have insisted that Karinchak should be the closer NOW...that Zimmer should replace Mercado as the starting CF...that Chang should be next years starting SS.

All this, after seven games and three weeks of practice.

This isnt a team in total rebuild. At the moment it's the team according to BR with the best odds of having the #1 seed. Those kind of decisions are made by bottom feeders, not contenders.

Let's wait a while to see how things work out.
 
As for Karinchak, I see a guy with a plus heater and a plus plus curve ball.

I also see a guy with a delivery that suggests wildness and a fairly high chance of injury.

His track record in the minors suggests a high K rate, a high BB rate, and the fact that when batters do make contact they tend to get hits..an exceedingly high BABIP....and a very high WHIP. That suggests a lot of mistake pitches in the zone. In the minors the negatives got wiped out by the K rate. But can he sustain that against big league hitters?

I absolutely love what I have seen so far, and...given the org track record...I expect that he will improve on his shortcomings.

But I'm not etching that expectation into stone, yet.
 
Game #2 Line-Up:

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Clevinger throwing a lot of pitches 1st inning. Throwing lots of breaking balls.
 
Watching the game with an octogenarian relative ...he has already given up on tonight’s game...”no chance”. Good times.
 
No chance. See you all in July 20201
 

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