2020 Lineup Discussion

At this point, given our lack of OF production, we need to get a few of these guys out of here. Not saying theyre all dead weight or lost causes, but we literally have 5-7 outfielders on our 40 man or AAA that are just meh. Mercado is the only one I would say let work through it & maybe Naquin.

bigfoot5415 said:

At this point, given our lack of OF production, we need to get a few of these guys out of here. Not saying theyre all dead weight or lost causes, but we literally have 5-7 outfielders on our 40 man or AAA that are just meh. Mercado is the only one I would say let work through it & maybe Naquin.

Click to expand...

Luplow deserves more benefit of the doubt than Mercado, in my opinion

Derek said:

Luplow deserves more benefit of the doubt than Mercado, in my opinion

Click to expand...

I'm a bit disappointed to see my Mercado skepticism coming true. I'm sure he'll figure it out eventually--but right now I don't have faith in him. I like Zimmer/DeShields/Luplow as my starting OF until Naquin comes back, with Domingo getting occasional at bats. Maybe a Luplow/Domingo platoon starts to make sense?

Some fun with baseball savant:

- The Indians had 11 hard-hit balls yesterday, 8 off Giolito in his 7 innings, and then 1 off each reliever.
- Hernandez, Ramirez, Reyes, and Freeman each had 2 while both Santana's and Leon managed 1.
- The White Sox had 7 hard-hit balls yesterday, all off Bieber.

Unluckiest swings of the night:
- Jose Ramirez's 1st inning flyout came off the bat at 102.1 mph at a 32-degree launch angle. Batted balls with that profile have an expected BA% (xBA%) of .710
- Carlos Santana's 5th inning groundout came off the bat at 107.1 mph at a 7-degree launch angle. The xBA% on this one was .670
- Franmil Reyes's lineout in the second inning came off the bat at 105.9 mph at a 17-degree angle. The xBA% was .640
- Sandy Leon's 9th inning lineout came off the bat at 98.3 mph with a 7-degree launch angle. The xBA% was .570
- Jose Abreu's 4th inning groundout was hit 100.2 mph at a 2-degree launch angle. The xBA% was .540

Others with slightly bad luck:
- Jose Ramirez's 9th inning groundout; 93.7 mph with a .460 xBA%
- Luis Robert's 2nd inning GIDP; 106.8 mph with a .450 xBA%
- Domingo Santana's 2nd inning GIDP; 91.1 mph with a .440 xBA%

Luckiest swings of the night:
- Carlos Santana's 10th inning "single" had an xBA% of .060
- James McCann's 10th inning single had an xBA% of .140

Derek said:

Some fun with baseball savant:

- The Indians had 11 hard-hit balls yesterday, 8 off Giolito in his 7 innings, and then 1 off each reliever.
- Hernandez, Ramirez, Reyes, and Freeman each had 2 while both Santana's and Leon managed 1.
- The White Sox had 7 hard-hit balls yesterday, all off Bieber.

Unluckiest swings of the night:
- Jose Ramirez's 1st inning flyout came off the bat at 102.1 mph at a 32-degree launch angle. Batted balls with that profile have an expected BA% (xBA%) of .710
- Carlos Santana's 5th inning groundout came off the bat at 107.1 mph at a 7-degree launch angle. The xBA% on this one was .670
- Franmil Reyes's lineout in the second inning came off the bat at 105.9 mph at a 17-degree angle. The xBA% was .640
- Sandy Leon's 9th inning lineout came off the bat at 98.3 mph with a 7-degree launch angle. The xBA% was .570
- Jose Abreu's 4th inning groundout was hit 100.2 mph at a 2-degree launch angle. The xBA% was .540

Others with slightly bad luck:
- Jose Ramirez's 9th inning groundout; 93.7 mph with a .460 xBA%
- Luis Robert's 2nd inning GIDP; 106.8 mph with a .450 xBA%
- Domingo Santana's 2nd inning GIDP; 91.1 mph with a .440 xBA%

Luckiest swings of the night:
- Carlos Santana's 10th inning "single" had an xBA% of .060
- James McCann's 10th inning single had an xBA% of .140

Baseball Savant - Statcast Game Feed & Advanced Metrics

Baseball Savant

baseballsavant.mlb.com

Click to expand...

McCann's single would have been an out if Zimmer hadn't taken a false step back before coming in. He completely misread it. We had to get four outs that inning to win.

Zimmer could have caught that ball with a dive. It hit right in front of his feet, which is why he muffed it. But it looks to me like he doesn't dive anymore and he doesn't run into fences. I can't blame him after what he's been through, but I don't see him as a future centerfielder. And I don't know if his bat will play in left or right. It was discouraging to see him swing and miss fastball after fastball middle of the plate and below the belt. By the third at-bat Giolito wasn't even trying to set him up - he just threw fastballs knowing he couldn't hit them.

Great to see 11 hard-hit balls. We've had games where there were only two or three that I can recall. The Indians hit into a lot of bad luck or this could have been a 6-3 win in regulation.

Reyes crushed two balls - one off Giolito and one off Marshall, both damn good pitchers. Sandy said he's no longer collapsing his rear leg when he swings. It shows. But they got him to chase low change-ups twice and struck him out. If he can consistently lay off those pitches he'll be a force.

Carlos Santana came up to bat 19 times in the series and was walked 12 times. Do the White Sox think he's Babe Ruth or what? His batting eye is phenomenal. He was taking 96 mph fastballs that were 2" off the plate and ignoring breaking balls below the knees that others were hacking at. HIs numbers are silly; batting average of .188 and an OBP of .451. If Hernandez didn't have an OBP of .414 I'd be lobbying to move Carlos to the leadoff spot (again).

It's not like he's hitting .400 and pitchers are scared of him. He's below the Mendoza line. If you simply refuse to swing at pitches outside the zone you'll get a lot of walks. The other Tribe hitters should take note and be more patient at the plate. Reyes is starting to lay off low breaking balls early in the count and as a result is getting ahead and seeing better pitches to hit. Obviously the other hitters don't have Santana's pitch recognition ability (who does?) but they could benefit from being more patient early in the count.

One guy who comes up swinging is Mike Freeman. I was surprised when the White Sox gave him a first pitch fastball down the middle in the 10th, which he promptly lined into center field for the decisive hit. I would never start him off with a strike, much less a fastball, knowing he loves to jump on the first pitch. The Sox were stupid and it paid off for the Tribe.

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

I'm a bit disappointed to see my Mercado skepticism coming true. I'm sure he'll figure it out eventually--but right now I don't have faith in him. I like Zimmer/DeShields/Luplow as my starting OF until Naquin comes back, with Domingo getting occasional at bats. Maybe a Luplow/Domingo platoon starts to make sense?

Click to expand...

DeShields is over performing, and looks great in contrast at the moment, but he is also one of only two guys I trust in CF...have to ride him now. A healthy Naquin has to be in there v RHP when he returns. I had favored giving Luplow more ab v RHP going into the season...at this point he and Domiingo ( the lesser defender) are probably a coin flip for me. I'd stick with Zimmer in a corner for now....hopefully one of these guys gets hot by the time Naquin returns.

Derek said:

Some fun with baseball savant:

- The Indians had 11 hard-hit balls yesterday, 8 off Giolito in his 7 innings, and then 1 off each reliever.
- Hernandez, Ramirez, Reyes, and Freeman each had 2 while both Santana's and Leon managed 1.
- The White Sox had 7 hard-hit balls yesterday, all off Bieber.

Unluckiest swings of the night:
- Jose Ramirez's 1st inning flyout came off the bat at 102.1 mph at a 32-degree launch angle. Batted balls with that profile have an expected BA% (xBA%) of .710
- Carlos Santana's 5th inning groundout came off the bat at 107.1 mph at a 7-degree launch angle. The xBA% on this one was .670
- Franmil Reyes's lineout in the second inning came off the bat at 105.9 mph at a 17-degree angle. The xBA% was .640
- Sandy Leon's 9th inning lineout came off the bat at 98.3 mph with a 7-degree launch angle. The xBA% was .570
- Jose Abreu's 4th inning groundout was hit 100.2 mph at a 2-degree launch angle. The xBA% was .540

Others with slightly bad luck:
- Jose Ramirez's 9th inning groundout; 93.7 mph with a .460 xBA%
- Luis Robert's 2nd inning GIDP; 106.8 mph with a .450 xBA%
- Domingo Santana's 2nd inning GIDP; 91.1 mph with a .440 xBA%

Luckiest swings of the night:
- Carlos Santana's 10th inning "single" had an xBA% of .060
- James McCann's 10th inning single had an xBA% of .140

Baseball Savant - Statcast Game Feed & Advanced Metrics

Baseball Savant

baseballsavant.mlb.com

Click to expand...

Thanks for that list Derek...just watching the game it definitely seemed as if there were a number of well struck balls...far more than what we have been seeing.

Numbers through 8/20


xBA is the expected batting averaging of a player based on the quality of their contact (exit velocity and launch angle).

BA is their actual batting average.

DIFF is the difference between the two numbers.

A negative DIFF means that the hitter currently has a better BA than expected based on how well they've hit the ball.

EDIT: Stats now updated to reflect yesterday's game

Zimmer with a .119 xBA. OMG. Must be that single digit line drive percentage and tons of weak ground balls.

Naquin has been the "unluckiest" by far with an expected BA 144 points higher than his actual BA. Assuming his luck improves, and it should since he is not a dead pull hitter, that would give us a least one decent outfield bat.

Leon is the second unluckiest and I wonder how much of that is due to a combination of hitting the ball hard into the shift and very slow footspeed. Carlos Santana and Domingo Santana fall into the same category as Leon - they tend to hit hard shots into the shift and get thrown out. If that is the case you would expect that their xBA will always be higher than their actual BA and they aren't victims of bad luck.

Zimmer and DeShields had the greatest difference in terms of actual BA being higher than expected. Coincidentally, they are the two fastest players on the team and get hits on weak ground balls.

So in terms of batting average I think xBA is interesting but it's not that relevant. A high chopper by Zimmer that he legs out for a single is worth more than a 110-mph line drive into the teeth of the shift by Santana where he gets thrown out from short right field.

You would expect Mercado to fall into the Zimmer/DeShields category but he's the opposite. That suggests to me that he really has been unlucky to some extent since his xBA is significantly higher than his actual.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

Zimmer with a .119 xBA. OMG. Must be that single digit line drive percentage and tons of weak ground balls.

Naquin has been the "unluckiest" by far with an expected BA 144 points higher than his actual BA. Assuming his luck improves, and it should since he is not a dead pull hitter, that would give us a least one decent outfield bat.

Leon is the second unluckiest and I wonder how much of that is due to a combination of hitting the ball hard into the shift and very slow footspeed. Carlos Santana and Domingo Santana fall into the same category as Leon - they tend to hit hard shots into the shift and get thrown out. If that is the case you would expect that their xBA will always be higher than their actual BA and they aren't victims of bad luck.

Zimmer and DeShields had the greatest difference in terms of actual BA being higher than expected. Coincidentally, they are the two fastest players on the team and get hits on weak ground balls.

So in terms of batting average I think xBA is interesting but it's not that relevant. A high chopper by Zimmer that he legs out for a single is worth more than a 110-mph line drive into the teeth of the shift by Santana where he gets thrown out from short right field.

You would expect Mercado to fall into the Zimmer/DeShields category but he's the opposite. That suggests to me that he really has been unlucky to some extent since his xBA is significantly higher than his actual.

Click to expand...

I don't think xBA does exactly what you think it does.

xBA accounts for the launch angle. Many weakly hit balls have high xBA because of this. Many hard-hit balls have very low xBA as well.

For example, the highest xBA from yesterday's game was JT Riddle's second-inning single. It was hit at just 76.4 mph, but due to its 18-degree launch angle, it had an xBA of .960 which means that a ball hit like that is a hit 96% of the time. It's a perfect bloop.

On the contrary, the second hardest hit ball in yesterday's game was a 103.2 mph groundout in the first inning by Colin Moran. Despite being hit hard, its -19 degree launch angle translated to just a .220 xBA.

Derek said:

I don't think xBA does exactly what you think it does.

xBA accounts for the launch angle. Many weakly hit balls have high xBA because of this. Many hard-hit balls have very low xBA as well.

For example, the highest xBA from yesterday's game was JT Riddle's second-inning single. It was hit at just 76.4 mph, but due to its 18-degree launch angle, it had an xBA of .960 which means that a ball hit like that is a hit 96% of the time. It's a perfect bloop.

On the contrary, the second hardest hit ball in yesterday's game was a 103.2 mph groundout in the first inning by Colin Moran. Despite being hit hard, its -19 degree launch angle translated to just a .220 xBA.

Click to expand...

From what I (just) read on xBA, it does account for launch angle, which obviously is important, though it doesn't account for where the ball is hit horizontally in the field. So it might tend to overvalue guys who hit more predictably to one side of the field, and undervalue guys who hit to all fields and therefore don't have to deal with things like shifts.

The Human Q-Tip said:

From what I (just) read on xBA, it does account for launch angle, which obviously is important, though it doesn't account for where the ball is hit horizontally in the field. So it might tend to overvalue guys who hit more predictably to one side of the field, and undervalue guys who hit to all fields and therefore don't have to deal with things like shifts.

Click to expand...

While it's true that it doesn't account for pulling the ball, going oppo, or up the middle, the leaguewide xBA has been within .005 of the leaguewide BA since the inception of Statcast in 2015.

And it may surprise you that xBA has actually been lower than the actual BA in each of those seasons.

2019: -.002
2018: -.002
2017: -.003
2016: -.004
2015: -.005

No claims that it's perfect, but the predictability factor you mentioned it a bit overblown. Guys who make more hard contact in the right range of angles are going to get the most hits regardless of their spray charts. The xBA leaderboard is "who's who" of "I hope that guy isn't coming up with guys on base".

Within an individual season, you'll see discrepancies up to around .020, but that's because it takes more than a 162 game season's worth of at-bats for BA to stabilize into a useful measure of a player's ability.

Derek said:

While it's true that it doesn't account for pulling the ball, going oppo, or up the middle, the leaguewide xBA has been within .005 of the leaguewide BA since the inception of Statcast in 2015.

Click to expand...

Well, the nature of the stat pretty much guarantees that, right?

No claims that it's perfect, but the predictability factor you mentioned it a bit overblown. Guys who make more hard contact in the right range of angles are going to get the most hits regardless of their spray charts. The xBA leaderboard is "who's who" of "I hope that guy isn't coming up with guys on base".

Click to expand...

I don't really disagree with any of that. I think there may be some variations when you are talking about the edges -- the guys with great bat control v. the guys who are predictable, but it averages out overall. I really mentioned this only because the poster to whom you were responding specifically mentioned shifts, and I wanted to point out there was some validity to that.

What do you guys think of McKenzie getting a start on Saturday?

The Human Q-Tip said:

Well, the nature of the stat pretty much guarantees that, right?



I don't really disagree with any of that. I think there may be some variations when you are talking about the edges -- the guys with great bat control v. the guys who are predictable, but it averages out overall. I really mentioned this only because the poster to whom you were responding specifically mentioned shifts, and I wanted to point out there was some validity to that.

Click to expand...

Fair enough.

I just wanted to point out that a 110 mph screamer hit into the shift is still more valuable than a chopper hit by a speedster. The guy who hits the screamers is going to end up with more hits regardless of the shift.

While xBA doesn't account for where the ball is hit horizontally (there has to be a better way to describe what we're trying to say here ) it does account for what has actually happened in the past.

xBA doesn't know that the ball was hit into the shift, but it does know that it happens sometimes, and that is accounted for in the calculation.

Also, starting last year (I think), the print speed of a player is taken into account on the grounders.