The 2020 Cleveland Indians Trade Deadline Manifesto: Will they or won’t they?
Zack Meisel Aug 26, 2020 38
CLEVELAND — One day before the trade deadline arrived last summer, the Indians dealt Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati as part of a three-team exchange that included six players and one wild horse.
It was the culmination of months of dialogue with other teams, often regarding Cleveland’s starting pitching depth. It was the result of countless iterations of trade concepts with various teams.
And that process might seem effortless compared to the task at hand this week, with a mid-pandemic deadline approaching after teams have played about 35 games.
Welcome to the annual Cleveland Indians Trade Deadline Manifesto.
First, let’s revisit the Indians’ notable summer trade acquisitions during their recent contention window.
2019: Franmil Reyes, Yasiel Puig, Logan Allen, Scott Moss
2018: Brad Hand, Adam Cimber, Leonys Martín, Oscar Mercado (and, later on, Josh Donaldson)
2017: Joe Smith, Jay Bruce
2016: Andrew Miller, Brandon Guyer
They have had no issue with adding — or shuffling, in the case of flipping Bauer for some offensive reinforcements. For a team that has scored two runs or fewer in 14 of its 30 games, that might again be the most prudent strategy.
This season, though, trade talks might as well take place at the table where the oft-memed dog is sipping coffee in a flame-filled room. Indians president Chris Antonetti said, “there’s a lot of activity among teams and a lot of dialogue.” But even as teams settle on their blueprints for the deadline, they have to consider the extra layers of complications that will cloud every conversation.
“What might be different is our ability to execute that strategy or make deals that are in line with that,” Antonetti said, “just because this is a unique set of circumstances that none of us have dealt with before.”
Buyers and sellers
Only two AL teams sit more than 3 1/2 games out of the postseason picture, and those teams, the Angels and Red Sox, are not your customary cellar-dwellers. Neither club approached the 2020 campaign with intentions of sinking to the bottom of the standings. With Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani in the fold (not to mention rising stars David Fletcher and Jo Adell), the Angels might not qualify as prototypical sellers. In the National League, only the Pirates have stumbled significantly enough to take a clear side.
In short, the line between contender and pretender has never been more blurred. The Orioles, Tigers and Marlins, three tank-happy teams that had no October aspirations prior to the pandemic, are all jockeying for playoff positions.
Everything can change in the span of a few days, too. One three-game series represents 5 percent of a team’s entire schedule. So, it wouldn’t be surprising if teams wait until the last minute to finalize their plans.
Does that make it a seller’s market? Will teams take big swings given the circumstances? Will the threat of an outbreak make teams more risk-averse? We might not know the answers to these questions until 4:01 p.m. ET on Monday.
Dollars and sense
The Indians’ payroll has decreased the last few years, and before the regular season began, Antonetti suggested the club would suffer “extraordinary” financial losses. That figures to influence the front office’s decision-making this winter, but what about this week?
“I do think, this year, it’s very different,” Antonetti said. “We’ve been pretty transparent about the magnitude of our financial losses. That’s the case for a lot of teams across the industry. How different teams will weigh the financial component of trades is another thing that’s difficult to predict. We’ve all been affected by the pandemic and as an industry have lost a ton of revenue because of our inability to play a lot of games and have fans at the ballpark.”
So, when piecing together your fake trade proposals, steer clear of acquisitions with future guaranteed salaries of any significance (J.D. Martinez, Gregory Polanco).
What about prospects?
Technically, only those on a team’s active roster or training at a team’s alternate site can be included in a trade. But teams can use five letters as a workaround if they want to involve any non-player-pool prospects: PTBNL.
The tricky thing is this: How can a team evaluate the development of a player who has been stuck at home all summer? There’s a heightened risk with any trades involving players who aren’t on the major-league roster. To help alleviate some of those concerns, the league did institute a data-sharing initiative so teams can check on players at the alternate sites.
Indians third baseman José Ramírez steals second base against the Twins on Tuesday at Progressive Field. (David Richard / USA Today)
The AL Central
It’s a three-team race for the division title, with the Twins charging toward their second consecutive crown. Ah, but there are consolation prizes this year. The second-place finisher automatically earns a postseason berth, and the third-place team stands a decent chance at a playoff trip as well.
FanGraphs’ postseason odds:
Twins: 99.6 percent
Indians: 97.9 percent
White Sox: 97.7 percent
The Indians probably have the ammo to reach October regardless of their activity this week, especially given their soft schedule. It’s about finding pieces that will equip them with the most formidable roster possible for a postseason run. (And, keep in mind, they’re always thinking about the future, too.)
The Indians’ perspective
Even a novice detective can unearth the Indians’ most glaring need. Just take a glance at these NSFW outfield numbers:
.175/.282/.260 slash line, 50 wRC+ (50 percent worse than league-average production)
The Indians have used 10 outfielders and 19 different starting outfield combinations in their first 30 games.
Cleveland has starting pitching depth, a commodity every team covets. Last summer, they parted with a starter and landed one outfielder and one designated hitter moonlighting as an outfielder. They could pursue a similar exchange over the next few days.
Mike Clevinger was already destined to be a popular name among winter trade whispers. He has two more years of team control beyond 2020. That doesn’t mean the Indians will simply pawn him off to the highest bidder this week; they’ll hold out for a decent haul if they move one of their proven assets.
Teams will certainly inquire about Clevinger’s availability this week, but any club hoping Antonetti would rush to sever ties with him had its dreams dashed when the Indians revealed
Clevinger would start against the Twins on Wednesday. The Indians still hold the leverage.
They don’t have to deal Clevinger, especially now that the team has invited him back into the clubhouse.
But the Indians need lineup help. They prefer to obtain younger players with several years of inexpensive team control. And that’s where a Clevinger trade, while incredibly challenging to execute, would make some sense.
Let’s say, for the sake of fun trade-deadline spitballing, that the Indians were motivated to listen to offers for Clevinger. What criteria would a team need to meet to be a match?
• A team that needs starting pitching help
• A team that has a relatively young, major-league ready outfielder to offer
• A team that plans to contend within Clevinger’s window of team control
A handful of teams fit some or all of those guidelines:
Angels: They could include Brandon Marsh, a top-100 prospect who reached Double-A last season, but the floundering Angels might be more inclined to complete such a deal this winter, since their 2020 hopes have been spoiled.
Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel could be had, but the Indians likely have their sights set higher (even though Hernández has smacked a league-leading 11 home runs this season). Our Toronto writer, Andrew Stoeten, says the Blue Jays “really, really like” Cavan Biggio, who seems like a dream fit for Cleveland.
Braves: They have two young outfielders who would be attractive to the Indians in Christian Pache and Drew Waters. The latter would be more attainable, per our Braves writer, David O’Brien.
Mets: They have an abundance of options, including Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. Dominic Smith or J.D. Davis could pique Cleveland’s interest, too. Conforto is the best of the bunch, but he’s also short on team control.
Yankees: It seems like just yesterday Indians players sported red wigs to poke fun at Clint Frazier after the team drafted him with the fifth overall pick in 2013. He has patiently waited for an opportunity in New York. Miguel Andújar is another skilled hitter without an obvious role.
If they weren’t the Indians’ direct competition, the White Sox and Twins might make some sense as trade partners, too.
The Indians aren’t required to pull off a seismic trade, of course. They could pluck a veteran outfielder from a non- or pseudo-contender. This would be akin to addressing a decapitation with a Band-Aid or two, but it might be better than nothing. (There are also internal considerations as Daniel Johnson, Oscar Mercado and even Jake Bauers bide their time in Eastlake.)
Anyway, some potentially available veteran outfielders: Jackie Bradley Jr. (BOS), Kevin Pillar (BOS), Brian Goodwin (LAA), Jorge Soler (KC), Michael Taylor (WAS), Dee Gordon (SEA), Starling Marte (AZ), Kole Calhoun (AZ), David Peralta (AZ), Shin-Soo Choo (TEX).