I was listening to a podcast with Chris Fedor and Hayden Grove recently about the Cavs draft. Fedor made a few key points, for those who haven't heard it.
- Some in the Cavs org consider Porter a 2 and not a 3, which would make it less likely the Cavs would draft a guard and more likely they take a wing. Fedor thinks that unless Ball or Edwards drops to 5 the Cavs will not be taking a guard.
- Toppin is "firmly on the radar" and might be the BPA at #5. Fedor sees him as a high floor, low ceiling guy considering his age and skill set. Fedor would rather see the Cavs pass on Toppin and "swing for the fences".
- The Cavs argument for taking Toppin, besides the general argument that bad teams should take the best player regardless of position, is that Toppin would be a replacement for Love (getting back to the thread topic). Fedor has been led to believe that Love will not play in back-to-back games this year which would limit him to 55-60 games.
- Fedor estimated the chances of Thompson returning this year at 50% and the chances of the Cavs extending Drummond beyond this season at 50%. So there's a decent chance both TT and Dre will be gone after this season leaving the Cavs very thin on the front line (with Zizic already gone). So the argument for drafting a big would be that there would be some opportunity to play immediately due to Love's situation and it would possibly fill a huge need down the road.
- Okongwu is another possibility but he is seen as being on the lower end of Tier 2, which would put him a little lower than #5. He's a great kid based on what his college coach says and Fedor compared him to Thompson. He said "Big O" is not as skilled as Bam Adebayo so he's not sure that comparison works. Okongwu does not shoot 3's and there is concern about his offensive game and whether he will fit the profile of a "modern big" due to his lack of perimeter skills.
My comment:
Drummond has no perimeter skills, either, so if the Cavs want a center that shoots 3's they should not extend him. If they're OK with him at center going forward then they won't take Big O.
Drafting a guard makes no sense to me whatsoever. Not only is TT a free agent right now but Dre may be gone after this season. And after another year Love's contract might be easier to move (assuming he's playing well) because it's one less year and $30 million less commitment for the acquiring team. I'm sure one reason they plan on not playing him in back-to-backs is to try and keep him healthy and productive for trade purposes. We could lose TT, Dre, and Love in the next year or two.
That's why I'm not a big fan of drafting a wing. We have Windler and Cedi. Nance played well at the 3 last year and the big lineup of Dre or TT at center, Love at the 4 and Nance at the 3 was our best lineup. So we have Nance, Windler, and Cedi not to mention Porter who can also play the 3 in a small lineup.
It seems like Toppin or Okongwu make the most sense unless the Cavs have already made up their minds to commit to Drummond long term and are sure he will go along. Even then they would need a 4 to spell Love immediately and replace him when he goes.