@CDAV45 as well
I am siding with Edmonix on the Naquin argument at the end of the day. We have no reason to nontender him.
There is absolutely a reason to nontender him. I don't know how you could even find solid ground to argue from that point. Look, I don't care if they nontender him or keep him, what I'm saying is that he and DeShields should not be in starting roles. Certainly they both have purposes to serve in MLB, but if our OF consists of DeShields in CF and Naquin in RF next season then the results will be the same. They are average ball players for the umpteenth time.
Plus I am looking at basic stats for Johnson on his fielding. I will compare basic stats (aka from the minors to pro average). From what I can tell, his range factor (via baseball reference) is 2.2/2.02 in CF while the league average is around 2.5-2.6 in CF. So that tells me he can play CF, but he is below average at best in his range, plus he does make more errors out there than normal (Fld% .977 to league average of around .989) Now his range factor in RF is 2.09/1.91 and the league average is at 2.05-2.1/2.0 so his range factor says, he is at least average in RF, Fld% of .979 to .985% being the league average)
Below average range? Where did you find that info? He covers over 30ft/sec and is one of the faster OFers in the system. He's played RF mostly because of his incredible arm strength, but he's also played CF and continues to play some CF. He been legitimately clocked at over 100 mph on throws. So I agree with you that he has played mostly RF because of that arm strength. Look, we can argue until the cows come home about how good Johnson's defense is. The point is that he is not a liability, and I guaranf'nT you that he can play a better CF than DeShields did this year.
The next factor in my mind is why Johnson is a RF not a CF. He has 3 assists in the minors with 1200 area innings in CF while in RF he has 25 assists in 1600 innings. Why would any team play Johnson in CF normally with below average range and a way above average arm?
One would really have to dive into the numbers to find the legitimacy of your conclusion based on these stats. They can be very circumstantial is what I'm saying. Is he slower in CF than in RF? Is his arm weaker in CF than in RF? Where were the balls hit?
I am not against Johnson playing CF, but his basic stats state to me RF he is an asset to the team while in CF, he is just a AAAA player on the defensive end. If I am a coach and I have a better CF defensively I am playing that guy.
I absolutely agree with you here. The question is who is a better defensive CF that can hit? If Mercado can get back to his 2019 form then by all means put Johnson in RF.
Also AA is more pitcher friendly league while AAA is more hitter friendly. So I look at AA to see what he did. Johnson has a slash of .263/.326/.446 as AA. In my mind in 2020 though he did do a better job of taking some more walks, but his SOs are high. So if I was making a projection for a full season from Johnson right now I'd go more of a .250/.310/.430 slash area. 30-40 BBs, 120 SOs, 15 HRs, 25 2Bs, 15-20 SBs.
I'm looking at Johnson's time in Akron last year and he slashed 253/337/534/872. He got promoted quickly and performed as well or even better 306/371/496/867. Trying to make a case that the promotion to AAA somehow skewed his excellent season is simply not true. If you look at his time in AA in both 2018 and 2019 you see the natural progression of a good player as he physically matures. He never really struggled in what many call the most difficult jump in the minors. Your projection isn't terrible, but I don't think it's accurate and here's why. You can expect to see a dip in average. His average last season was 290 so I'll go along with 250, but that is a bit low IMO. 260 is what I would project. His OBP last season was 361 and your forecast of 310 is a bit harsh. I'd go with 325. Now we get into where I really disagree with you. I find it difficult to believe that a young, maturing player whose slugging percentage has done nothing but steadily increase as he matures is going to decrease that severely. Power doesn't decrease for a player in his mid 20's, especially one with Johnson's plus power.