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I get the argument but here is a list off the top of my head of minor league players with no or in some cases very little major league experience the Indians acquired by giving up "sure things", i.e. proven major league players.Mathematically, 70% of our highly thought of prospects...pick any favorite name, Jones for most, Freeman for me...will fail. But they are sure things on the trade market.
Cliff Lee
Grady Sizemore
Sandy Alomar
Carlos Baerga
Joe Carter
Kenny Lofton
Asdrubal Cabrera
Shin-Soo Choo
Carlos Santana
Michael Brantley
Justin Masterson
Carlos Carrasco
Mike Clevinger
How much success would the Indians have had over the last 25 years without these guys? And in some cases the Indians traded one player for four or five but only one of the prospects they traded for paid off. The Cliff Lee to the Phillies for Carrasco and three other guys is an example. Carrasco had a good career in Cleveland whereas Marson et al never amounted to anything. So 75% of the prospects we received flamed out but the one that came through made the trade a big success.
Add in the guys in our system now that we acquired for Carrasco and Clevinger, some of whom will turn out to be long term starters based on the law of averages.
Also factor in that after these prospects we trade for become very good players we can trade them for more prospects after getting years of production out of them. An example would be the Colon for Lee trade. Lee becomes an All-Star and then we trade him for Carrasco. Cookie has a good career and then we trade him along with Lindor for four prospects. We'll still be getting value from Bartolo years into the future and it's been 19 years since the deal.
The problem with trading prospects for a "sure thing" is that it increases payroll, which is something the Indians won't be doing for a while if you believe they took a financial bath last year like they claim. The Clevinger and Lindor/Carrasco trades prove the Indians are sticking with the plan that has worked in the past as opposed to taking the opposite approach and trading prospects for proven players.
There is a time for that. The Clint Frazier/Sheffield for Andrew Miller trade is an example. But for every one of those deals the Indians are going to do five the other way, which is the only way a small market team can compete.