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The idea of Naylor playing full time as both a 1B and corner OF makes a lot of sense.

I am in concert with 45 on platoons. Unfortunately, the Indians haven't been able to develop OFs and haven't had the wherewithal to buy enough of them that are capable of regular play. To make matters worse...in a good way...they have been contending pretty much every year since Tito took over, and as contenders living on the margins they haven't had a real opportunity to give a guy like Luplow a shot at regular play. Then when they do, he gets hurt.

Tito has done a very good job of mixing and matching in the outfield to maximize what little production there has been, until last year...when, with Luplow hurt, there was no production to maximize.

It looks like finally...maybe...perhaps...we have a chance to have a fairly regular outfield.

I've never worried about which positions our offense comes from. IMO, a minority one, it doesnt matter whether our middle of the lineup is made up of infielders or outfielders...just so we have somebody there that produces. Now that Frankie and Santana are gone, somebody had better step up.
 
How about Naylor platooning in right with Luplow? CDAV said he heard Tito say on a recent podcast that Naylor is an outfielder and first base will be manned by Bradley or Bauers. Since Rosario hits lefties and righties equally well and is getting $8 million I assume he'll be in left every day, which means Naylor is in right field since he won't be in center.

Rosario in left and a Luplow/Naylor platoon in right has a very good chance of giving us an OPS of .800+ at both corners. Then it comes down to whether we can find a halfway decent bat between Mercado and Zimmer in center and between Bradley and Bauers at first.

I don't see how the overall outfield production can possibly be the same or worse than last year considering the additon of Rosario. But a bounce back year from Mercado would go a long way. Daniel Johnson and Nolan Jones could also be factors in the second half.

Yeah, Luplow is Brandon Guyer on steroids only without all those hit-by-pitches.

We really need bounce back seasons at the dish from Mercado and Berto, along with somebody to do better than Santana's .199/.699 at first base and match Lindor's .750 OPS at short.

We need Quantrill or somebody else to replace Cookie's 2.91 ERA or at least be in the ballpark. Despite the very low ERA the Indians were 6-6 when Carrasco started thanks to a horrible offense. If the offense improves we can still go .500 in those games even if the ERA isn't as low.

Clase needs to replace Hand in the bullpen which is a tall order. Or Karinchak replaces Hand and Clase replaces Karinchak.

So I think the key players this year are Clase, Quantrill, Mercado, the new shortstop (Rosario or Gimenez), the new first baseman (Bradley or Bauers), and Aaron Civale, whose ERA went from 2.34 in 2019 to 4.74 last year in 12 starts last year.

Tristan McKenzie needs to take the next step. Last year with the bases empty opposing batters had an OPS of .491. With runners on it was .826. McKenzie needs to improve his ability to pitch from the stretch with his attention divided. However, with RISP he held hitters to 1-for-10, suggesting that when he didn't have to worry about holding runners and could focus on the hitter he was fine.
A lot to chew on here...

I endorse the analysis that basically presumes last year's production kept you in the mix, just find reasonable ways to exceed it to stay competitive with teams that appear to have improved to one degree or another.

I happen to think that people overreacted to the horror show that was the outfield last year. But with the prudent signing of a guy who owns Progressive Field and who will nurse a grudge against his old club (Rosario), a promising late-season add (Naylor), a proven southpaw killer who just got off the wrong foot last year (Luplow), and a reasonable guess that at least one of Mercado/DJ/Zimmer grabs hold of a job, I think it's a slam dunk that the OF is going to be significantly improved from last year. And yeah, Nolan Jones is in the wings, but I see no reason to rush him while he learns a new position. Maybe I'm nuts, but I truly dislike having guys in the OF who can't run dependable routes to fly balls.

Santana was miserable last year, surely we can find someone to hit .199 for less than $14 million. We've got candidates.

21-year old Gimenez's OPS+ in 2020 was identical to Lindor's last year. Not a high bar to clear there, but there will be some defensive loss. Not much, but some. I still think Cleveland will want to play the service time game to gain a seventh year on Gimenez, if only to increase his trade value when some of those guys in the lower minors start knocking on the door. There's a chance, though, that Gimenez--who Mets fans unanimously refer to as "fun" to watch--will turn into a poor man's Vizquel. And that will be the ultimate irony after stockpiling shortstops like cord wood. Some of them need to learn to play CF.

Like you, I expect Roberto to bounce back. We don't need 2019 numbers, just some healthy, confident swings again. And Hedges gives us Berto-like defense, so we should give Perez more days off so he doesn't wear down.

I don't favor Clase or Karinchak replacing Hand. That would be unfortunate. First, strategically, having both available when needed is valuable. Second, Karinchak may not be suited temperamentally to exclusively close, and Clase shouldn't be pressed into the job. Why can't either be available to close, along with say, Cam Hill or Nick Wittgren. I'm a big fan of closer by committee, not that Francona ever would be. Bottom line, Karinchak and Clase are too good to solely assign either to a rather overrated job.

I'm very high on Civale and regard the difficult stretch he went through last year as a good learning experience. He will be good. Pleasac surprised me last year with his dominance, but even if he backslides a bit, he'll still be very good. Same with Bieber. One thing for sure; some other starters are going to be needed, because neither McKenzie or Quantrill are going to be ramped up to even 150 innings, if that. Heck, Pleasac and Civale will be monitored. There is work to be had, from Plutko or Logan Allen or Scott Moss...and it will need to be 4.25 ERA work, at a minimum. We're not the only team that needs innings, but we'll definitely need quite a few beyond our top five. It makes me wonder if we won't take a flyer on some innings-eating veteran starter still in free agent limbo won't find his way to Cleveland yet. Although, he might need to be optionable despite a major league guarantee.

Bottom line, improvements are not a given (except in the OF), but they are plausible. Pecota wasn't crazy.
 
A lot to chew on here...

I endorse the analysis that basically presumes last year's production kept you in the mix, just find reasonable ways to exceed it to stay competitive with teams that appear to have improved to one degree or another.

I happen to think that people overreacted to the horror show that was the outfield last year. But with the prudent signing of a guy who owns Progressive Field and who will nurse a grudge against his old club (Rosario), a promising late-season add (Naylor), a proven southpaw killer who just got off the wrong foot last year (Luplow), and a reasonable guess that at least one of Mercado/DJ/Zimmer grabs hold of a job, I think it's a slam dunk that the OF is going to be significantly improved from last year. And yeah, Nolan Jones is in the wings, but I see no reason to rush him while he learns a new position. Maybe I'm nuts, but I truly dislike having guys in the OF who can't run dependable routes to fly balls.

Santana was miserable last year, surely we can find someone to hit .199 for less than $14 million. We've got candidates.

21-year old Gimenez's OPS+ in 2020 was identical to Lindor's last year. Not a high bar to clear there, but there will be some defensive loss. Not much, but some. I still think Cleveland will want to play the service time game to gain a seventh year on Gimenez, if only to increase his trade value when some of those guys in the lower minors start knocking on the door. There's a chance, though, that Gimenez--who Mets fans unanimously refer to as "fun" to watch--will turn into a poor man's Vizquel. And that will be the ultimate irony after stockpiling shortstops like cord wood. Some of them need to learn to play CF.

Like you, I expect Roberto to bounce back. We don't need 2019 numbers, just some healthy, confident swings again. And Hedges gives us Berto-like defense, so we should give Perez more days off so he doesn't wear down.

I don't favor Clase or Karinchak replacing Hand. That would be unfortunate. First, strategically, having both available when needed is valuable. Second, Karinchak may not be suited temperamentally to exclusively close, and Clase shouldn't be pressed into the job. Why can't either be available to close, along with say, Cam Hill or Nick Wittgren. I'm a big fan of closer by committee, not that Francona ever would be. Bottom line, Karinchak and Clase are too good to solely assign either to a rather overrated job.

I'm very high on Civale and regard the difficult stretch he went through last year as a good learning experience. He will be good. Pleasac surprised me last year with his dominance, but even if he backslides a bit, he'll still be very good. Same with Bieber. One thing for sure; some other starters are going to be needed, because neither McKenzie or Quantrill are going to be ramped up to even 150 innings, if that. Heck, Pleasac and Civale will be monitored. There is work to be had, from Plutko or Logan Allen or Scott Moss...and it will need to be 4.25 ERA work, at a minimum. We're not the only team that needs innings, but we'll definitely need quite a few beyond our top five. It makes me wonder if we won't take a flyer on some innings-eating veteran starter still in free agent limbo won't find his way to Cleveland yet. Although, he might need to be optionable despite a major league guarantee.

Bottom line, improvements are not a given (except in the OF), but they are plausible. Pecota wasn't crazy.
Great post Who! I'd like to add a few things and ask a couple of questions if I may.

1. 1B is kind of "up in the air" at this point. Would you be opposed to signing someone like CJ Cron to a cheap 1 yr deal or minor league agreement? He's not all world by any means, but he won't kill you defensively and he'll clobber in some runs. Like you said "we've got candidates", but not one of them instills much confidence for me. If I could convince them to make 1 more deal it would be form Mancini. I doubt they could pick up the $4.75M tab on him though. Adding his bat to the lineup would give me confidence that they could win this damn division.

2. I listened to Tito the other day and he mentioned not pigeon holing Karinchak into 9th inning duties only. He said that he highest leverage scenario might come in an earlier inning. I expect Clase to pick right up where he left off and I fully expect Gose to contribute with his power arm as well. BP are so unpredictable, but there is some talent in this one. Hand clearly appeared to be regressing IMO, and it started prior to the 20 season. I wish they would have traded him while he had some value.

3. I expect huge things from Quantrill. Having said that, I wonder if he an McKenzie could form some sort of tandem to keep their IP in check? I also think it's time that Logan Allen starts to realize his potential to a degree. Civale is good. How good is to be determined but he's no less than a solid #4 IMO. I expect Moss to have more success than Plutko. I think his ability to miss bats supersedes anything Plutko has ever displayed. There is Humphreys who showed promise prior to TJS and picked up Stephan in the rule V. My sleeper pick is Mejia. I think he could be a very good MOR SP soon. I see no reason to even have Plutko on the roster and I imagine he would be the first to go if they needed to make room.

4. Neither Gimenez or Rosario can fill Lindor's shoes outside of the 20 season, nor should they have to. I think Rosario is a good breakout candidate who could hit 280/320/450/780 with 20 HR. I don't think he'll ever be as good defensively as Gimenez and that might get him traded before the season starts.

Anyway, hope springs eternal and I expect this team to hit better than it did last year because it can't be any f'n worse...........right?
 
Great post Who! I'd like to add a few things and ask a couple of questions if I may.

1. 1B is kind of "up in the air" at this point. Would you be opposed to signing someone like CJ Cron to a cheap 1 yr deal or minor league agreement? He's not all world by any means, but he won't kill you defensively and he'll clobber in some runs. Like you said "we've got candidates", but not one of them instills much confidence for me. If I could convince them to make 1 more deal it would be form Mancini. I doubt they could pick up the $4.75M tab on him though. Adding his bat to the lineup would give me confidence that they could win this damn division.

2. I listened to Tito the other day and he mentioned not pigeon holing Karinchak into 9th inning duties only. He said that he highest leverage scenario might come in an earlier inning. I expect Clase to pick right up where he left off and I fully expect Gose to contribute with his power arm as well. BP are so unpredictable, but there is some talent in this one. Hand clearly appeared to be regressing IMO, and it started prior to the 20 season. I wish they would have traded him while he had some value.

3. I expect huge things from Quantrill. Having said that, I wonder if he an McKenzie could form some sort of tandem to keep their IP in check? I also think it's time that Logan Allen starts to realize his potential to a degree. Civale is good. How good is to be determined but he's no less than a solid #4 IMO. I expect Moss to have more success than Plutko. I think his ability to miss bats supersedes anything Plutko has ever displayed. There is Humphreys who showed promise prior to TJS and picked up Stephan in the rule V. My sleeper pick is Mejia. I think he could be a very good MOR SP soon. I see no reason to even have Plutko on the roster and I imagine he would be the first to go if they needed to make room.

4. Neither Gimenez or Rosario can fill Lindor's shoes outside of the 20 season, nor should they have to. I think Rosario is a good breakout candidate who could hit 280/320/450/780 with 20 HR. I don't think he'll ever be as good defensively as Gimenez and that might get him traded before the season starts.

Anyway, hope springs eternal and I expect this team to hit better than it did last year because it can't be any f'n worse...........right?
In the abstract, I'd love to have CJ Cron. But there are issues that probably render any discussion rather moot. For one, Cron is coming off a pretty serious knee injury, which would raise issues about his first year back, power being his calling card, and whether it would affect his defense (which has generally been league average). The other thing is that at 31, Cron has never been paid. Last year was his first significant contract, and it was Covid'ed. He's not going to entertain anything less than, say, $4.5m, and at that level, there will be multiple suitors that will likely drive that up a bit. Since the Tribe says they were "stretched" taking on Rosario, I don't know where the budget is for Cron. In addition, I think the Tribe shares my optimism for Naylor (I know you don't) and he's the backup option for first should neither Bauers nor Bradley step up. Were it only Bauers or Bradley, we'd all be sweating bullets, but I don't think the Tribe looks at it that way. But sure, Cron would fit well into this lineup, maybe not ideally since we'd be adding another low walk free-swinger like Rosario, but we can't afford to put anyone who can hit with authority under a microscope at this point.

Like you, I don't lament the loss of Hand. He proved that in game two last fall that a smart lineup can get to him when it counts. I was relieved to hear Francona has no intention of appointing Karinchak closer. I really don't care who becomes closer, just that whoever it is throws strikes. I also hope Gose gets a full shot. We need a southpaw in the pen, and two would be ideal given our lack of a right-handed starter. I wish we could afford to bring Clippard back with his reverse splits. Kyle Nelson will get a long look. I don't think Ollie is washed up, but dollars are scarce.

I too think Cal Quantrill is someone to watch. We seem to bring out the best in pitchers with his arsenal. And while I listed Plutko first in my list of supplementary starters, that didn't mean anything. I think a decision on him needs to be made first, because he's out of options, which means bullpen or pretty much gone. I don't know if Terry wants one of his pen options to be a swing man/long reliever but I could be wrong. It's the only way he hangs around.

With our pitching staff and emphasis on run prevention, the only way I see Rosario at short at all is if they want to nail down that seventh year for Gimenez. Rosario is just not a good shortstop, and it would be too much shock for our staff to lose Lindor and then install Rosario at short too. I can see him offensively breaking out, I suppose, but Gimenez will be the man in the middle of the diamond as soon as possible I would imagine. Where that leaves Rosario is anyone's guess. Does he have options? Can we send him down to become an outfielder? Or do we just trade him after showing him off for a month or two. Maybe we get lucky and he looks so good we can pry something decent away for him. I was sure they were going to ride with Rosario at 2B thinking like you do about his offensive ceiling, so the signing of Hernandez came as a surprise to me. Now Amed is on the outside looking in, just like he was in New York.

How this all shakes out this spring is anyone's guess.
 
amed rosario has two minor league options remaining.. gimenez has all three of his.. and will most likely start in c-bus to assure that 4th year..
 
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Expectations/overview of Plesac, Quantrill, Bieber & Civale... The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.. Four starters on a professional baseball team.. All pitching in their age 26 year (January, February, May & June)... all with aspirations/expectations of succeeding... and they have..

-Plesac is more stuff over pitcher.. his baseball IQ and instincts are as high as anyone on the club and he has elite athleticism to go with his stuff.. If/when he learns to be a pitcher, he's going to be devastating.. Some of that will come with maturity..
-Quantrill has a lot of Bieber in his approach.. but not to that ultra-elite level. He has both stuff and baseball IQ like Plesac.. His maturity began last year after making nine appearances out of the SD bullpen (one short/opener start).. Upon his arrival,
-Bieber has it all.. stuff in spades and the mental acuity to beat hitters before they step into the batters box.. He is genuinely a league ace and deserving..
-Civale has the bulldog mentality to go with pitching IQ.. he is a pitcher.. knows how to attack a hitter.. knows how to sequence his pitches.. and has elite control. He's only going to get better.. ML hitters are going to run into his offerings from time to time.. but he's not a comfortable at bat for anyone..

These are our four pillars.. McStix, Logan S Allen, Plutko, Moss, Sam Hentges, JC Mejia, the two recent acquisitions.. will contribute to the starting staff that should be able to account for more than half of the innings pitched for the Indians during the entire 2021 season.. All the relievers (and a few of the starters) will provide the depth needed to fill the remaining half of the innings to be pitched throughout the 2021 season.. and that area of the club could be a LOT better than we've seen since Andrew Miller was in our pen..

A special pitching staff.. plenty of talent and talented depth.. this is an area that needs to be cared for because if they do well.. the team does well..

Thoughts?..

Thoughts?..
 
Expectations/overview of Plesac, Quantrill, Bieber & Civale... The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.. Four starters on a professional baseball team.. All pitching in their age 26 year (January, February, May & June)... all with aspirations/expectations of succeeding... and they have..

-Plesac is more stuff over pitcher.. his baseball IQ and instincts are as high as anyone on the club and he has elite athleticism to go with his stuff.. If/when he learns to be a pitcher, he's going to be devastating.. Some of that will come with maturity..
-Quantrill has a lot of Bieber in his approach.. but not to that ultra-elite level. He has both stuff and baseball IQ like Plesac.. His maturity began last year after making nine appearances out of the SD bullpen (one short/opener start).. Upon his arrival,
-Bieber has it all.. stuff in spades and the mental acuity to beat hitters before they step into the batters box.. He is genuinely a league ace and deserving..
-Civale has the bulldog mentality to go with pitching IQ.. he is a pitcher.. knows how to attack a hitter.. knows how to sequence his pitches.. and has elite control. He's only going to get better.. ML hitters are going to run into his offerings from time to time.. but he's not a comfortable at bat for anyone..

These are our four pillars.. McStix, Logan S Allen, Plutko, Moss, Sam Hentges, JC Mejia, the two recent acquisitions.. will contribute to the starting staff that should be able to account for more than half of the innings pitched for the Indians during the entire 2021 season.. All the relievers (and a few of the starters) will provide the depth needed to fill the remaining half of the innings to be pitched throughout the 2021 season.. and that area of the club could be a LOT better than we've seen since Andrew Miller was in our pen..

A special pitching staff.. plenty of talent and talented depth.. this is an area that needs to be cared for because if they do well.. the team does well..

Thoughts?..

Thoughts?..
Boy Gson - a "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" reference => not sure that is allowed here. But either way, mighty big shoes to fill. Not sure I view Quantrill, Civale and Plesac as bigger than life with extraordinary powers. Now maybe Biebs could be viewed that way but the rest .... not so much.

Cleveland has been very good in the pitching department, not to0 many home grown. Your current crop, except for Quantril is. Will be interesting to see how they turn out versus the Kluber's, Clevinger's, Carrasco's, Bauer's of the world that really are a mix of orgs. Last real home grown big name starter before Bieb's - Danny Salazar - that didn't work out so well. Guess you can always hope your "Horseman" with extraordinary powers don't flame out like he did.

Don't have real high expectations for the Cleveland starting staff this year. Very young, very inexperienced, and that has its drawbacks. All things come to an end it seems, could it be the "Cleveland pitching factory" is headed that way. Only a few months left before one can draw a conclusion about that.
 
Home grown is a misnomer. Home drafted is a better description.

Carrasco, an intl signing, was acquired when he was 22.
Kluber, 4th rounder, when he was 24.
Bauer, a 1st rounder, when he was 21.
Clevenger, a 4th rounder, when he was 24.

Biebs was a 4th rounder when he was 21.
Civale was a 4th rounder when he was 21.
Plesac was a 13th rounder when he was 21.

All are, or soon will be, 26. In terms of success on the mound, measured in FIP and OPS plus, all three are well ahead of the now departed. (Bauer had started 92 games thru age 25.) In 33 starts in 2019, Bieber put up more fWAR than Bauer in his first 91.

Allen, an 8th rounder was 22 when acquired.
Quantrill, a 1st rounder, when he was 25.
Moss, a 4th rounder, when he was 25.
TMac, a 1st rounder, when he was 18.

In terms of how they were ranked as prospects...

Bauer was a top ten.
Cookie was a top 40.

TMac was a top 40.
Allen was a top 90.
Quantrill was a top 50.

In terms of pre-draft evaluations, the present group was better. In terms of prospect rankings, the present group was better. In terms of actual MLB production, the present group is well ahead.

Why on earth would anybody think that somehow, Cleveland's ability to acquire and develop pitching is coming to an end?

Unless, of course, that somebody is heavily biased against all things Tribal.
 
Home grown is a misnomer. Home drafted is a better description.

Carrasco, an intl signing, was acquired when he was 22.
Kluber, 4th rounder, when he was 24.
Bauer, a 1st rounder, when he was 21.
Clevenger, a 4th rounder, when he was 24.

Biebs was a 4th rounder when he was 21.
Civale was a 4th rounder when he was 21.
Plesac was a 13th rounder when he was 21.

All are, or soon will be, 26. In terms of success on the mound, measured in FIP and OPS plus, all three are well ahead of the now departed. (Bauer had started 92 games thru age 25.) In 33 starts in 2019, Bieber put up more fWAR than Bauer in his first 91.

Allen, an 8th rounder was 22 when acquired.
Quantrill, a 1st rounder, when he was 25.
Moss, a 4th rounder, when he was 25.
TMac, a 1st rounder, when he was 18.

In terms of how they were ranked as prospects...

Bauer was a top ten.
Cookie was a top 40.

TMac was a top 40.
Allen was a top 90.
Quantrill was a top 50.

In terms of pre-draft evaluations, the present group was better. In terms of prospect rankings, the present group was better. In terms of actual MLB production, the present group is well ahead.

Why on earth would anybody think that somehow, Cleveland's ability to acquire and develop pitching is coming to an end?

Unless, of course, that somebody is heavily biased against all things Tribal.
Generally speaking.. the idea that absolute "home grown" is the only, end all, be all.. is flawed.. The Indians pitching talent acquisition is skewed heavily toward professional players. Guys who may have a handful of starts/appearances at the ML level or, for the most part, have only seen a ML ballpark by buying a ticket, are who the Tribe targets, acquires and then develops.. The current group of 25 year olds pitchers have only Quantrill with one start.. in the ML's before becoming a member of the Indians development machine..

This is where the next group is coming from.. Cantillo.. Mejia.. Vargas... etc..

Low cost.. low salary.. high performance.. and un-exploited market advantage that the Indians have captured...

Thoughts?
 
These [Bieber, Plesac, Civale, Quantrill] are our four pillars.. McStix, Logan S Allen, Plutko, Moss, Sam Hentges, JC Mejia, the two recent acquisitions.. will contribute to the starting staff that should be able to account for more than half of the innings pitched for the Indians during the entire 2021 season

A special pitching staff.. plenty of talent and talented depth.. this is an area that needs to be cared for because if they do well.. the team does well..
A special staff? I doubt it. I'm OK with your "four pillars", although I'm skeptical about Civale after last season and Quantrill failed as a starter in San Diego and was moved to the pen. But I agree he's the kind of toolsy pitcher the Indians have been able to make better in the past.

After that it gets real sketchy IMO. McKenzie's velo dropped off precipitously last year and so did his performance. All it took was three starts averaging 5.1 innings. His first three starts; 16 innings, 3 ER's, 1.69 ERA. His next three; 13.1 innings, 9 ER's, 6.08 ERA. His fastball went from 96 mph to 91. After six starts they took him out of the rotation. By the way, who was the last successful major league starter who weighed 165 pounds? I'm thinking Pedro Martinez at 5'11, 170. But McKenzie is 6'5" which is a long way from 5'11".

Logan Allen had a WHIP of 1.78 last year and a FIP of 5.35 in three relief appearances. OK, that was only 10 innings but In 2019 he had a 5.85 ERA in AAA and a 6.18 in nine games with the Padres. I see no evidence that he's ready to start in the bigs.

Scott Moss is 25 and has no major league experience. He did start four games in Columbus in 2019 with a 1.93 ERA, so there's that. But he only averaged 4.6 innings per start. Those 19 innings represent ALL of his AAA experience.

J.C. Mejia last pitched competitively in 2019 where he compiled an ERA of 4.09 at high A Lynchburg. I'm not sure he's ready to skip two levels and help the Indians this year. He's already 24 and has not pitched in AA yet, much less AAA.

Adam Plutko has an ERA of 4.86 or higher each of the last three years. He's 29 years old. Enough said.

I could see piggybacking McKenzie and Allen or Moss when we need a 5th starter. McKenzie is more likely to be productive with limited innings IMO. Make him a five-and-fly guy. In fact, I saw one article recently that suggested the Indians make him a Blake Snell type of pitcher who only goes 5 innings but they are really good innings. Then bring in the lefty, Moss or Allen, to pitch the next 3-4 innings, especially if the opponent loads up with left-handed hitters for McKenzie.

I don't see much margin for error like there was in 2019 when we had Plesac and Civale ready to step in when Kluber got hit by a line drive, Clevinger hurt himself, and Carrasco was diagnosed with leukemia. Now maybe we have the 2019 versions of Plesac and Civale in the persons of Allen, Moss, or Mejia, but I doubt it. We're going to need a bounce back season from Civale and a successful conversion to starter for Quantrill just to have your "four pillars" in place. As a starter for the Padres opposing batters hit .272/.778 off Quantrill.

Maybe somebody like Jordan Humphreys comes out of nowhere. He's only pitched two innings since the end of the 2017 season, however, and has never pitched above A ball. Trevor Stephan? Age 24 and a 5.24 ERA in AA in 2019.

Eli Morgan? His 2019 season is instructional: 1.87 ERA in high A, 3.79 in AA, and 5.40 in 5 innings of AAA. He's a AA pitcher unless he improved a lot at Eastlake last year.

No margin for error. The loss of Kluber, Clevinger, Bauer, and Carrasco over the last two years hasn't devastated the rotation but it has severly reduced the depth unless some guys at Eastlake really got a lot better last year. One encouraging note - Bieber, Plesac, Civale, and Quantrill have not had any injuries that I'm aware of. They're all 25 so maybe we get 32 starts out of all of them and only have to worry about finding one decent 4.25 guy for that fifth spot. If that's the case we're in good shape because there are a lot of candidates, starting with McKenzie.
 
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I'm not disagreeing that there are concerns about stamina and depth this season, but I do disagree that in Feb 2019 anybody thought that Plesac and Civale were ready to step in and be immediately successful at the MLB level.

At that point in time both were in AA, and Plesac had only 22 IP there. Civale had only thrown 106.1 IP in 2018, due to some arm problems.

A good argument can be made that Quantrill, Logan, and Moss are far more prepared to step into the rotation now.
 
I'd add that Kluber thru his first two looks in Cleveland, totaling 15 starts, looked between pretty bad and awful. As he entered his age 27 year, only Tito and the FO could envision what was about to happen.

And all this came on the heels of four years of appearances in AAA that were less than impressive.

Moss doesn't have much time at AAA, but in a short look in Columbus and a long look in AA, he has been significantly better than Kluber.

Disclaimer....some idiot is gonna claim that I'm saying that Moss will be the next Kluber. That would be a fabrication.
 
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A special staff? I doubt it. I'm OK with your "four pillars", although I'm skeptical about Civale after last season and Quantrill failed as a starter in San Diego and was moved to the pen. But I agree he's the kind of toolsy pitcher the Indians have been able to make better in the past.

After that it gets real sketchy IMO. McKenzie's velo dropped off precipitously last year and so did his performance. All it took was three starts averaging 5.1 innings. His first three starts; 16 innings, 3 ER's, 1.69 ERA. His next three; 13.1 innings, 9 ER's, 6.08 ERA. His fastball went from 96 mph to 91. After six starts they took him out of the rotation. By the way, who was the last successful major league starter who weighed 165 pounds? I'm thinking Pedro Martinez at 5'11, 170. But McKenzie is 6'5" which is a long way from 5'11".

Logan Allen had a WHIP of 1.78 last year and a FIP of 5.35 in three relief appearances. OK, that was only 10 innings but In 2019 he had a 5.85 ERA in AAA and a 6.18 in nine games with the Padres. I see no evidence that he's ready to start in the bigs.

Scott Moss is 25 and has no major league experience. He did start four games in Columbus in 2019 with a 1.93 ERA, so there's that. But he only averaged 4.6 innings per start. Those 19 innings represent ALL of his AAA experience.

J.C. Mejia last pitched competitively in 2019 where he compiled an ERA of 4.09 at high A Lynchburg. I'm not sure he's ready to skip two levels and help the Indians this year. He's already 24 and has not pitched in AA yet, much less AAA.

Adam Plutko has an ERA of 4.86 or higher each of the last three years. He's 29 years old. Enough said.

I could see piggybacking McKenzie and Allen or Moss when we need a 5th starter. McKenzie is more likely to be productive with limited innings IMO. Make him a five-and-fly guy. In fact, I saw one article recently that suggested the Indians make him a Blake Snell type of pitcher who only goes 5 innings but they are really good innings. Then bring in the lefty, Moss or Allen, to pitch the next 3-4 innings, especially if the opponent loads up with left-handed hitters for McKenzie.

I don't see much margin for error like there was in 2019 when we had Plesac and Civale ready to step in when Kluber got hit by a line drive, Clevinger hurt himself, and Carrasco was diagnosed with leukemia. Now maybe we have the 2019 versions of Plesac and Civale in the persons of Allen, Moss, or Mejia, but I doubt it. We're going to need a bounce back season from Civale and a successful conversion to starter for Quantrill just to have your "four pillars" in place. As a starter for the Padres opposing batters hit .272/.778 off Quantrill.

Maybe somebody like Jordan Humphreys comes out of nowhere. He's only pitched two innings since the end of the 2017 season, however, and has never pitched above A ball. Trevor Stephan? Age 24 and a 5.24 ERA in AA in 2019.

Eli Morgan? His 2019 season is instructional: 1.87 ERA in high A, 3.79 in AA, and 5.40 in 5 innings of AAA. He's a AA pitcher unless he improved a lot at Eastlake last year.

No margin for error. The loss of Kluber, Clevinger, Bauer, and Carrasco over the last two years hasn't devastated the rotation but it has severly reduced the depth unless some guys at Eastlake really got a lot better last year. One encouraging note - Bieber, Plesac, Civale, and Quantrill have not had any injuries that I'm aware of. They're all 25 so maybe we get 32 starts out of all of them and only have to worry about finding one decent 4.25 guy for that fifth spot. If that's the case we're in good shape because there are a lot of candidates, starting with McKenzie.
To be fair, Cal Quantrill did not "fail as a starter in San Diego". In fact, there is plenty of criticism to be found about how the Padres handled Quantrill and that he should have been left alone as a starter. Hedges thinks he's a starter and will be a very successful one at that. This is just my opinion, and it isn't worth anything, but I believe that Quantrill and Arias were the main targets in the Clevinger deal and I couldn't be happier with the return. I think Quantrill will be every bit as good as Clevinger, but much more reliable.

I don't share the same optimism about Allen. I think he could be very good, but up to this point he hasn't shown the type of control it takes to find success at the major league level. I haven't given up hope because he's young. The positives are his age and stuff. He also appears to be durable and we all know how important that is. If a team like Baltimore were interested in him then I'd probably work out a deal, even though admittedly regret could be forthcoming.

McKenzie hadn't really pitched in 2 yrs due to injuries. He completely impressed me after being called up, but clearly faded. I think that would have happened to any other pitcher who went through those adversities.

Humphreys prior to injuries was one of the Mets' best pitching prospects. He has excellent control and a good mix of pitches. His fastball is 92-95 and he can locate it to every spot in the zone. His change up is consider by some to be a plus pitch as well. His curveball flashes plus and has plus spin rates. We may have another diamond in the rough here.

I agree, Plutko shouldn't even be part of this conversation. He'd be more useful to a rebuilding team that needed a reliable arm to eat some innings.

I don't know what to think about Moss. He misses enough bats and limits walks enough to think that he would be more successful than Plutko. I see no harm in finding out wha the can do.

I think Morgan is much like Moss. I didn't want to expose Oviedo to protect Morgan, but it is what it is.

I think Mejia comes to play here in the second half and is better than Civale, Allen, Moss, or Morgan.

I have faith in the talent and this organization's ability to get the most out of it, but I think the loss of Carrasco could be a factor. You are certainly correct in saying that the margin for error has been severely hampered. I would also add that it seems like 27 is the magic age for pitchers to realize their potential and as was noted Bieber, Plesac, Civale, Quantrill and Moss are all 25.

This entire discussion is why I put some much emphasis on loading the lineup. We'll be lucky to finish 3rd in the division as we are. I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer here, just an honest opinion and nobody hopes more than I do that I'm wrong.
 
I'd add that Kluber thru his first two looks in Cleveland, totaling 15 starts, looked between pretty bad and awful. As he entered his age 27 year, only Tito and the FO could envision what was about to happen.

And all this came on the heels of four years of appearances in AAA that were less than impressive.

Moss doesn't have much time at AAA, but in a short look in Columbus and a long look in AA, he has been significantly better than Kluber.

Disclaimer....some idiot is gonna claim that I'm saying that Moss will be the next Kluber. That would be a fabrication.
If you look back, the development of a cut FB propelled both Kluber and Cliff Lee to stardom. There's something to be said about the ability to spin a baseball and the Cleveland organization seem to be quick to realize it.

I got a chuckle out of your disclaimer. It's only funny because it happens a lot around here.
 
I'd add that Kluber thru his first two looks in Cleveland, totaling 15 starts, looked between pretty bad and awful. As he entered his age 27 year, only Tito and the FO could envision what was about to happen.

And all this came on the heels of four years of appearances in AAA that were less than impressive.

Moss doesn't have much time at AAA, but in a short look in Columbus and a long look in AA, he has been significantly better than Kluber.

Disclaimer....some idiot is gonna claim that I'm saying that Moss will be the next Kluber. That would be a fabrication.
WOW !! ...the next Kluber !!... (lol)...

Scott Moss worked his way back from a difficult TJ surgery and rehab in 2018/19.. His time in SD was over.. IDK wtf they were doing with him?.. trying to make a power pitcher out of him? Scottie Moss' fastball / cut fastball both spins moves enough while he locates it well enough and has enough fade on a change up to be an effective/valuable LHRP out of the Indians pen. IDK that he'll be starter, but will continue to be stretched out as one going forward. His FB that moves/up in the zone should play up a bit better as an RP, imho..

Thoughts?
 

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