Its way too early for me to make any team predictions, but looking at some of the others is interesting.
Fangraphs uses ZIPS for their team projections.
ZIPS projects EVERY one of our main pitchers, excepting Wittgren, to regress.
That ain't gonna happen.
ZIPS rates Chicago's and Minnesota's rotations better than ours, and Detroit's as nearly as good.
Among our position players, ZIPS projects only one to put up at least 2 WAR. It projects nearly every position player to regress. There are a few exceptions. Mercado, Luplow, and Naylor are projected to have plus WAR, but none to reach 1 WAR.
This is a team almost entirely consisting of players at an age where improvement is natural. Color me skeptical that none of our players/pitchers will make significant improvements, while most will regress.
I think it's fair to think that Bieber regresses slightly from last season. If he doesn't then you'll be watching a historical performance. He's one of the best though and should continue to pitch like one.
I don't think Plesac will finish the 21 season with a 2.28 ERA. I think he'll be between 3 and 3.5. After him is where it starts to get a little harry.
Civale needs to pitch better than his 4.74 ERA last season, and I think he will. He should be somewhere between 3.5 and 4.0.
Quantrill and McKenzie are capable of having an ERA under 4, but they aren't capable of pitching a full season's worth of innings. It wouldn't surprise me to see at least one of them pitch as well as Plesac did last year. I'd piggy back these two letting them go up to 4 innings each. That should keep their IP in check over the course of the season.
This is where Logan Allen can make his mark. He will never get a better opportunity than this IMO. If he falters they have plenty of unproven depth to fall back on. Trading Carrasco could easily be the biggest factor for this team in 21.
I firmly believe that our BP will be much improved and be one of the best in baseball.
Chicago's rotation is Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Cease, Kopech, Lopez, and Rodon. On paper it's a deeper rotation than Cleveland's. Then you look at their lineup and it gives any Indians' fan pause. They should be very good, but there is a reason they play the games.
Minny's rotation is made up of Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ, Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe. I'd rank this rotation right there with ours if, and I mean it's a doubtful if, Pineda and Happ can stay healthy. They're pretty damn good SP's when healthy, but the chances aren't good for them to make through a full season unscathed. They also have Balazovic and Enlow that they can use and they are no slouches. Balazovic especially. Then you get to their lineup as well and they can just mash. While removing Rosario from their lineup against us and inserting him in ours can only help, they can take advantage of pitchers' mistakes better than we can.
Detroit's rotation doesn't have that #1 like Bieber, Giolito, or Berrios. They just aren't as deep right now and they're waiting for some of their young arms to take the next step. They can hit the ball a bit, but a good rotation should keep them at bay for the most part.
KC is a bit of a wildcard here. They have a few good SP prospects that could make their rotation formidable. Then again, they could take their lumps. Their lineup is a bit interesting as well. If there is a surprise team in the AL Central this year, it will be KC.
Ultimately, I think Chicago wins the division with the Twins right on their heals. I think we'll be in a battle with KC for 3rd place and Detroit will be bring up the rear. Please God let me be wrong!