Thoughts on trading Jose Ramirez

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

After what we did with Jose, Kluber, Cookie and the entire last generation, I truly don't understand how someone could say they don't think the Indians will extend anyone ever again.

It has been our MO to extend our young talent, betting on them early. If there's any team to bet on extending players, it's us

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But will any player actually accept our extension offer? (I have no doubt that we will make the attempt.)

Benway said:

But will any player actually accept our extension offer? (I have no doubt that we will make the attempt.)

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The new trend on offering a long term contract before they even swing a bat in the Majors is an interesting one that Cleveland has yet to try, and not sure they should. I believe Philly did it with Kingery, the Sox with Eloy, the Mariners with Evan White and the Rays with Brandon Lowe. Really takes a leap of faith on your self scouting.

CalBuckeyeRob said:

The price for Jose is going to be at a minimum $25 million+ for 8 or more years. I would be shocked if Cleveland ever put $200 million on the table.

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So you really think the "minimum" for a 31 year old Jose Ramirez is 8 years at a guaranteed $250 million? Sorry, I don't see that. Not at all.

CalBuckeyeRob said:

The new trend on offering a long term contract before they even swing a bat in the Majors is an interesting one that Cleveland has yet to try, and not sure they should. I believe Philly did it with Kingery, the Sox with Eloy, the Mariners with Evan White and the Rays with Brandon Lowe. Really takes a leap of faith on your self scouting.

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The first I remember signing a contract before playing a single MLB game is Jon Singleton who signed a 5 year 10 million dollar contract with the Astros. There was a fair amount of criticism from multiple angles if memory serves... Well Mr. Singleton certainly made the right call. However if he became a superstar, he would of missed out on some dough..

petes999 said:

Maybe why people are skeptical is that Indians use to go over $100 million to win.

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The only years we had payroll over 100 million were 2017-2019. In 2016, when we made it to extra innings in game 7 of the World Series, our team payroll was 60 million.

We came close to winning it all, and ownership proved that they're willing to spend to put us over the top. It didn't work out, so now we wait our turn to strike again.

If anything, recent history shows you that ownership is willing to spend to win. Right?

petes999 said:

Now, we cut back to $58 million due to the financial strain that will take "many" years to make up for the losses. Can't sign too many to $10 million plus.

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Yes, we reduced our payroll this season.

Are you simply mad that the number isn't higher? Or, are there specific moves where we screwed up? I've been asking the money-focused crowd for specifics and can't seem to get any. Honestly, the only move where I felt like it was a negative on the team and caused by financial situations was letting Carlos Santana walk.

petes999 said:

Plus, I get Lindor turning down $. Bauer wanting FA. Yet, never heard any serious rumors on extending Clevinger. Could be injury concern or was towards end of Lindor/Kluber/orig Cookie extensions (time to blow it up)?

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We traded Clevinger with three years of control left on his deal.

And, he sort of forced that issue if I remember correctly.

I'm not sure what blowing it up you're referring to. Do you think we'd be in better shape if we didn't trade Cookie or Kluber?

hockeyjohn said:

I need to know the return, as well, but it would take an overpay now that most teams, if any, would be willing to spend. I, personally, don't see a team giving up enough controllable MLB or MLB ready talent to make us a contender until 2023 at the earliest. By then Bieber will be on the trade block unless we are able to extend him.

I would like to think that we will continue to churn out pitcher after pitcher, but there are no guarantees. Look at the Atlanta Braves. How many of their highly rated pitching prospects have bombed and disappointed. I just have a problem trading star players when they reach three years of control.

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Don't disagree with you at all really. It would take an overpay and there may not be a team willing to do so.

I don't think Atlanta's and Cleveland's pitching development is similar, and the likelihood that a large portion of Espino, Hankins, Torres, Vargas, Burns, Hentges, Cantillo, Allen, Moss, Morgan seems about right for this organization. Add to the fact that our current starting 5 are 25, 25, 25, 23, and 23 means that there is no rush. Quantrill is 26 and will probably get some starts this season and work his way into a full time starter by next season. Yeah, pitching isn't a concern for me.

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/indians/salaries/2019/team/all/

The only years we had payroll over 100 million were 2017-2019. In 2016, when we made it to extra innings in game 7 of the World Series, our team payroll was 60 million.

We came close to winning it all, and ownership proved that they're willing to spend to put us over the top. It didn't work out, so now we wait our turn to strike again.

If anything, recent history shows you that ownership is willing to spend to win. Right?


Yes, we reduced our payroll this season.

Are you simply mad that the number isn't higher? Or, are there specific moves where we screwed up? I've been asking the money-focused crowd for specifics and can't seem to get any. Honestly, the only move where I felt like it was a negative on the team and caused by financial situations was letting Carlos Santana walk.


We traded Clevinger with three years of control left on his deal.

And, he sort of forced that issue if I remember correctly.

I'm not sure what blowing it up you're referring to. Do you think we'd be in better shape if we didn't trade Cookie or Kluber?

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WTF ... you asked a question, I answered using Indians words of needing financial constraints due to Covid which they said will take years to fix. I am not mad just reality of only so much money to go around. They have given no indication if $60 mill is ceiling for 1, 3 or 5 yrs. So, why shouldn't we doubt if Bieber negotiations are legit or Lindor style (no where near meeting demands but need to make effort).

I brought up Clevinger because he was traded w 2-1/2 yrs and even though it may have been driven by his actions, there was no serious negotiations before then but supposedly there were/are for Bieber and Lindor. Just saying, usually buy outs happen for arb years which he was in.

My only complaint (for 2 years) is if there is only so much money is when they spend the money to go all in. Indians have also talked about these windows of opportunity. Reason I said they may have not extended Clevinger as they may have thought window was closing a year or two ago and wanted to save money for next window ($ was invested in Cookie though).

I am not mad just saying why some don't believe Bimbo on Bieber till we see it. And I understand if they cant do something like $20+ mill for 5 yrs (if that is what it takes) as Indians have said they can't put all their eggs (money) in one basket when discussing Lindor.

petes999 said:

WTF ... you asked a question, I answered using Indians words of needing financial constraints due to Covid which they said will take years to fix. I am not mad just reality of only so much money to go around. They have given no indication if $60 mill is ceiling for 1, 3 or 5 yrs. So, why shouldn't we doubt if Bieber negotiations are legit or Lindor style (no where near meeting demands but need to make effort).

I brought up Clevinger because he was traded w 2-1/2 yrs and even though it may have been driven by his actions, there was no serious negotiations before then but supposedly there were/are for Bieber and Lindor. Just saying, usually buy outs happen for arb years which he was in.

My only complaint (for 2 years) is if there is only so much money is when they spend the money to go all in. Indians have also talked about these windows of opportunity. Reason I said they may have not extended Clevinger as they may have thought window was closing a year or two ago and wanted to save money for next window ($ was invested in Cookie though).

I am not mad just saying why some don't believe Bimbo on Bieber till we see it. And I understand if they cant do say $20 mill for 5 yrs (if that is what it takes) as Indians have said they can't put all their eggs (money) in one basket when discussing Lindor.

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I may be wrong, but I was thinking that Cleveland's extension offers are made just before the player reaches arbitration. These deals have historically benefitted the player with a higher annual salary initially, but prevents them from becoming too expensive later. It's guaranteed money and security for the player which becomes a known cost for the FO. I'll be surprised if they don't buy out Bieber's arbitration years and add a couple more just like they did Kluber. A pitcher's risk of injury is probably significantly more than a player like Lindor so it would be a smart move to accept a good offer as opposed gambling on FA. That can wait until the extension agreement ends.

CalBuckeyeRob said:

The current baseball system is actually pretty good for budget conscious teams to have a competitive chance. The team gets to decide when to start that 7 year clock ticking and they can often get a bunch of prime years at a cheap price before free agency intervenes. If you can draft and develop well and flip the stars for future stars, you can stay in the hunt.

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The Indians have stayed in the hunt using this approach for quite a few years. The problem is that once players reach their absolute peak performing years it's time for them to leave. The key is to get them to their peak early like they did with Bieber, Lindor, Kluber, and Ramirez so as to get some of those prime years before they hit free agency. So they keep trading for guys like Gimenez who have already reached the major league level at age 22 and have a chance to be good players at a very affordable cost for several years.

The question is whether having to trade guys like Bauer and Lindor when they are at the height of their powers will prevent the Indians from ever getting beyond just "being in the hunt".

By the way, I was really impressed with Logan Allen on Monday. After two shaky innings he settled down, got aggressive ("Here's my stuff"), and rolled through the next three innings on 24 pitches against a team that came in hitting .330. He could have kept going but Tito wanted to get McKenzie some work. His only mistake was assuming Merrifield was taking all the way on a 3-0 pitch.

If Allen settles in as the #4 then all that remains is to find a #5 between McKenzie, Quantrill, Hentges, or one of the other up-and-comers like the two first round picks who are working their way up the system.

Benway said:

But will any player actually accept our extension offer? (I have no doubt that we will make the attempt.)

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After seeing the money Lindor got it's unlikely. You can bet Lindor is telling everybody that he's happy he never took an extension offer from Cleveland. Plus look at how underpaid Jose Ramirez is. Frankie is making 2.5 times what Jose is making this year and the next two years after that. And if not for Carrasco's illness he would have been grossly underpaid as well.

It would have to be a situation like Carrasco where he had a heart condition and four kids so he didn't want to risk having to retire before reaching free agency. He got lifetime financial security locked in and never had to worry if he had a career ending health issue.

In Bieber's case he's making a ridiculous $680K this year and won't hit free agency for four years. It might make sense for him to sign an extension giving up one year of free agency in 2025 to get an extra $30 million or so between now and then. Time value of money.

CDAV45 said:

I may be wrong, but I was thinking that Cleveland's extension offers are made just before the player reaches arbitration. These deals have historically benefitted the player with a higher annual salary initially, but prevents them from becoming too expensive later. It's guaranteed money and security for the player which becomes a known cost for the FO. I'll be surprised if they don't buy out Bieber's arbitration years and add a couple more just like they did Kluber. A pitcher's risk of injury is probably significantly more than a player like Lindor so it would be a smart move to accept a good offer as opposed gambling on FA. That can wait until the extension agreement ends.

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A couple of points w/r to a Bieber extension..

Projecting forward, Bieber will be ending his Arb III season as a 30 year old. The dollar values for arbitration may change some.. but essentially, the salary ranges for Biebs will be 0.68 for 21, then 2, 10 & 22, respectively, for 22 - 24 or about a 9 AAV for the pre and all arb years. W/ the collective bargaining agreement being renegotiated, Bieber would be wise to lock in for the four years at a value higher than this 9 AAV including a substantial signing bonus. The Indians would / should sweeten the deal by beating this, but, only if these four years, including 2021, are augmented by a fifth &/or sixth year, as you've suggested. That puts Bieber at age 32 when he hits free agency. Those fifth and sixth years.. will be mighty expensive.. perhaps, more than double the entire first four years.

We'll see..

petes999 said:

Maybe why people are skeptical is that Indians use to go over $100 million to win. Now, we cut back to $58 million due to the financial strain that will take "many" years to make up for the losses. Can't sign too many to $10 million plus.

Plus, I get Lindor turning down $. Bauer wanting FA. Yet, never heard any serious rumors on extending Clevinger. Could be injury concern or was towards end of Lindor/Kluber/orig Cookie extensions (time to blow it up)?

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COVID could've played a factor too. The trend with all of the past extensions for the Indians is they'd become official right around a week before Opening Day or about a week into the season.

Or like you mentioned, they didn't feel comfortable paying extra for Clevinger's 32 and 33 age seasons when he had 1 season of 130+ innings under his belt. Or perhaps Bauer rubbed off on Clevinger and he too wanted to bet on himself.

In the end, Clevinger didn't have a lot of trust within the franchise for them to be willing to give him long-term guaranteed money. There were serious discussions taking place prior to him hurting his knee, but once that happened and him and Plesac broke Covid protocols that was all she wrote...they almost moved Plesac too because of that.

The Indians are very good at locking guys in to pre-arb/arb extensions. They popularized that move in the 90s and still effectively use it. You give younger guys with a shorter track record more guaranteed money to hit free agency a year or 2 later and for most players that limits the risk with regards to career earnings for them. Brantley, Santana, Kipnis, Kluber, Gomes, Cookie, Jose, Perez all are recent players they did exactly that with.

Only one guy has turned them down in recent memory when they have seriously wanted to extend a player, and that guy just got a NY franchise to balk at their 300+ million dollar offer because he had most of the league convinced he wanted to get to free agency ASAP. They offered him over 100 million plus pre-arb, which was unheard of at the time of the offer. Bregman set the record at 100 million even pre-arb 2 years later which was the record until Tatis Jr's contract extension this off season.

The "Indians will never extend someone again" talk needs to stop...they have a terrific record of locking up their own players over the last decade.

CDAV45 said:

I wouldn't want them to sign a Lindor contract if they had the money. I'd rather see them spread it out a bit to a few players.

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No one on their current team would demand a "Lindor contract". Players worth or who require a 100+ million pre-arb extension are few and far between.

petes999 said:

WTF ... you asked a question, I answered using Indians words of needing financial constraints due to Covid which they said will take years to fix. I am not mad just reality of only so much money to go around. They have given no indication if $60 mill is ceiling for 1, 3 or 5 yrs. So, why shouldn't we doubt if Bieber negotiations are legit or Lindor style (no where near meeting demands but need to make effort).

I brought up Clevinger because he was traded w 2-1/2 yrs and even though it may have been driven by his actions, there was no serious negotiations before then but supposedly there were/are for Bieber and Lindor. Just saying, usually buy outs happen for arb years which he was in.

My only complaint (for 2 years) is if there is only so much money is when they spend the money to go all in. Indians have also talked about these windows of opportunity. Reason I said they may have not extended Clevinger as they may have thought window was closing a year or two ago and wanted to save money for next window ($ was invested in Cookie though).

I am not mad just saying why some don't believe Bimbo on Bieber till we see it. And I understand if they cant do something like $20+ mill for 5 yrs (if that is what it takes) as Indians have said they can't put all their eggs (money) in one basket when discussing Lindor.

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Takeaways:

1) Again, not a single specific case brought up to justify these scorching hot takes
2) If you don't believe Bimbo, that's a you problem. I can confidently say he's telling you the truth. If you want to reject reality, that's on you.