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The 2021 Cleveland Baseball Organization

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Interesting and relatively optimistic article on Bobby Bradley on Fangraphs today.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bobby-bradley-a-three-true-outcomes-case-study/
Things that stuck out to me:

He cruised into the break hitting .240/.336/.577 with a wRC+ of 143, tied for second with Jake Fraley among all rookies with at least 100 plate appearances.
Bradley’s struggles with breaking pitches (specifically sliders) caused enough concern that his cup of coffee only lasted three weeks. According to Statcast, Bradley saw 52 sliders in 2019 and hit for a .046 wOBA on such pitches. His swinging strike rate on sliders was 27%; he didn’t get a single hit off of a slider that season. After a wait of almost two years, he’s demonstrated throughout his second stint in the majors that he can now hit a big league slider. Four of Bradley’s 10 homers on the season have come against the pitch. His swinging strike rate is down a bit at around 20%, but he’s clearly seeing the pitch better. This proves out in how he’s reacting to sliders out of the zone. Bradley chased sliders out of the zone at a rate of 45% in 2019, with a SwStr% of 32.5%. He’s nearly cut that SwStr% in half this season, bringing it down to 17.7%.

It’s not just sliders though. His ability to see the ball has generally improved. His O-Swing% has dropped from 35.3% to 26.5%. This has resulted in a significant improvement in his walk rate (8.2% to 10.9%) and strikeout rate (40.8% to 30.3%). Sustaining those improvements is absolutely vital to Bradley’s survival at the big league level.
 
However, along with the good news on Bradley learning to handle the slider better there was this cautionary note:

Bradley has a 30.3 K% now, but what will that number be at the end of the season? His 690 plate appearances in Triple-A suggest that his true K% may be a bit higher than what he’s accomplished so far this season. As we’ve seen with his peer rookie standouts Mercedes and García, rookies tend to hit some adversity as pitchers learn more about a hitter’s tendencies.

But on the other hand...

His quality of contact has been great. His 22% barrel rate leads all rookies and is third among all hitters with at least 100 plate appearances (behind just Mike Zunino and Shohei Ohtani). As a TTO hitter with big power, the key for Bradley staying at the big league level hinges on his ability to keep his strikeout rate in check. For him, maintaining a strikeout rate just north of 30 is a healthy place to be. Throw in a walk rate over 10 and 30 home runs in a full season’s worth of plate appearances and Cleveland has itself an above-average first baseman under several years of team control. The problem is that these hitters are much better in theory than they are in practice; they’re outliers. Since 2017, there have only been five such seasons. (Joey Gallo twice, Judge, Schwarber, and Sano once).

Bradley's K rate at the moment is 37% - a little high. His walk rate is 11.7% and with a home run every 11 at-bats he'll easily hit 30 if he plays a full season. Heck, he would hit 50 at that rate.

The key is whether pitchers start shutting him down as they figure out his strengths and weaknesses. As the Savant said, "Rookies tend to hit some adversity as pitchers learn more about a hitter's tendencies."

I'm not sure I agree that the key for Bradley is "to keep his strikeout level in check". If his barrel rate is third among ALL HITTERS (trailing only Zunino and Ohtani) then he's going to do a lot of damage because a player this strong barreling up a ball is going to send it a long way. If he continues to barrel the ball 22% of the time he's going to hit a lot of home runs and doubles off the wall.

Zunino is an interesting case. A catcher, he's hitting only .195 and striking out 44.7% of the time. Yet he has 19 HR's in only 190 AB's. Striking out a lot doesn't make him an unproductive hitter because when he makes contact he does a ton of damage (as opposed to a player like Bradley Zimmer who strikes out a lot but doesn't do damage when he puts it in play). So I would argue that even if Bradley's strikeout rate increases somewhat from his current 37% he is still going to do a lot of damage if he can maintain his high barrel rate.

I can see Bradley topping out as a Joey Gallo type. At age 25 Gallo hit .203/.389/.598/.986 with 22 HR's in 241 AB's. Bradley is currently 25 and his line is .225/.323/.541/.863 with 10 HR's in 111 AB's. So compared to Gallo his BA is higher but he doesn't draw nearly as many walks. Home runs per at-bat are the same.

This year at 27 Gallo is hitting .237/.398/.516/.914 with one HR every 11.5 AB's. Bradley is there now in terms of home runs and slugging percentage and slightly behind in BA. I don't know if Bradley will ever get his OBP up to the .390 level, but in everything else he's right there with Gallo.
 
Any news on signing the draft picks yet?
I see some teams have begun to sign theirs.
 
I saw a tweet that drafted players will be in Arizona at the Goodyear complex later this week for physicals so I would guess signings will be announced then (or right before)..
My guess is any locals that can walk and chew gum will become catchers!
 
Not sure, i have had a had time walking and chewing gum at the same time for years.

On a side note, i am fat and slow, so if i was going to play baseball, i am perfect for catcher.

Well get your gear ready and go volunteer! Lol
 
How is Luplow going to be used upon his return?
 
Probably as a player, it seems unlikely he will suddonly start pitching.

He could always be a left handed knuckleballer in secret... No one would ever expect that nor hit that lol
 

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