Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

JB loves Okoro. He isn't moving from the starting lineup and he will be staying at SF unless someone outplays him. Game has slowed for him imo and we are going to be shocked how awesome he is with Mobley

ryanf said:

That's an interesting take and would need a bunch of data wrangling to prove or disprove. I don't agree with you, but i don't have the time to back my disagreement with numbers.

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Both Garland and Sexton have done quite a bit since their rookie years to repair their value. But yes, after their rookie years they had sunk significantly.

Hopefully Okoro follows suit and makes necessary improvements, but his lack of shooting (or any statistical indicators that we should expect improvement) is reason for pause.

ryanf said:

You have a point there. I would rank hunter, herro and hachimura a little higher than garland though because they had big moments already or are 2 way prospects.

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You can argue Hunter, but he was equally ass as a rookie and injured most of his soph year. Herro is bad. He was hot for one month in the bubble and suddenly he is the next great two guard. Rui has been decent, but his game is really hard to scale. High volume midrange scorers who can't get to the line and are liabilities on D are a tough sell. Garland blows two of those three guys out of the water, and is probably ahead of the third. I would put RJ Barrett in the same group as Hunter personally. He is a good wing but needs the ball too much relative to his skill.

imo the redraft goes
1. Zion
2. Ja
3. Garland
4. Hunter
5. Clarke
6. Thybulle
7. RJ

.. and so on

foucault87 said:

You can argue Hunter, but he was equally ass as a rookie and injured most of his soph year. Herro is bad. He was hot for one month in the bubble and suddenly he is the next great two guard. Rui has been decent, but his game is really hard to scale. High volume midrange scorers who can't get to the line and are liabilities on D are a tough sell. Garland blows two of those three guys out of the water, and is probably ahead of the third. I would put RJ Barrett in the same group as Hunter personally. He is a good wing but needs the ball too much relative to his skill.

imo the redraft goes
1. Zion
2. Ja
3. Garland
4. Hunter
5. Clarke
6. Thybulle
7. RJ

.. and so on

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I don't agree, but Barrett and Hunter go above Garland if there is a redraft if we are going by league value

Cavatt said:

I don't agree, but Barrett and Hunter go above Garland if there is a redraft if we are going by league value

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Barrett yes, Hunter no

Cavatt said:

I don't agree, but Barrett and Hunter go above Garland if there is a redraft if we are going by league value

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What is the case for RJ? He has improved a lot but I still remember him burying Duke with his horrible shot selection. Havent watched much NYK but has that improved?

cabs said:

Barrett yes, Hunter no

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If I were going to argue against his post, I’d say the opposite: Barrett no, Hunter yes

I also don’t think redraft exercises are all that interesting or helpful in determining whether or not someone was a good draft pick.

ryanf said:

To the one lambasting sexton's rookie year, how was garland's and okoro's?

FYI, sexton scored only 2 less points per game than kyrie in his rookie year, and shot the same percentage from 3.

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They were all bad their rookie years. But Garland and Sexton took huge jumps their second years and you would hope Okoro can do the same.

Per 75 possessions:

Kyrie:
23.9 points / 7.0 assists / 4.8 rebounds / 1.4 steals / 4.0 turnovers / +3.9 rTS%

Sexton:
19.6 points / 3.5 assists / 3.4 rebounds / 0.6 steals / 2.6 turnovers / -4.0 rTS%

Kyrie came in as one of the most NBA- ready rookies we’ve seen in a long time. There’s really no comparison. Comparing them on the basis of possessions is important because pace is so much higher today than it was even 5-10 years ago so it allows you to put their true productivity against one another.

Kyrie scored at a greater rate, assisted at double the rate, and scored at a much higher efficiency. He was 4% better than league average as a rookie! That’s insane. Whereas Sexton was 4% worse than league average.

Kyrie:
4.1 BPM / +4.7 On-Off / +0.97 RAPM

Sexton:
-4.7 BPM / -8.0 On-Off / -3.50 RAPM

It was also very clear from the impact metrics that Kyrie made the team better, whereas Sexton was a very clear negative his rookie season. And they both played on garbage rosters with terrible coaching, so the context is comparable.

Derek said:

If I were going to argue against his post, I’d say the opposite: Barrett no, Hunter yes

I also don’t think redraft exercises are all that interesting or helpful in determining whether or not someone was a good draft pick.

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It is super early too. I could see these rankings looking very different in 5 years. Who knows, maybe Culver figures it out.

foucault87 said:

What is the case for RJ? He has improved a lot but I still remember him burying Duke with his horrible shot selection. Havent watched much NYK but has that improved?

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He shot like 40% from 3 which was meant to be a big weakness and is also very young for his draft year

Sexton, Barrett etc all block Okoro. Cavs have so many decisions to make around the scoring guard position once they declared Garland their guy at "PG".

Futuredome said:

Sexton, Barrett etc all block Okoro. Cavs have so many decisions to make around the scoring guard position once they declared Garland their guy at "PG".

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Yeah Barrett really does limit our ability to play Okoro doesnt he?

foucault87 said:

What is the case for RJ? He has improved a lot but I still remember him burying Duke with his horrible shot selection. Havent watched much NYK but has that improved?

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Barrett's a big part of a playoff team and still has hype and he plays in NYC where he is overvalued. Shooting was his weakness, but he has improved a lot.

Look at the way people still fawn over Ingram and Lonzo. Both good players, but people act like they are big stars. They both have many weaknesses like Sexton does.

Hunter was legit good this year on both sides of the ball.

I think after this season the narrative changes, but everyone including some on this board think we have the worst young core in the league.

I personally think Koby has done a really good job drafting. I suspect Okoro has the highest upside after Mobley. Garlands next and I think he has a higher upside than Barrett or Hunter.

Sexton is most likely to hit his ceiling. Hell, if he takes a few more 3s a game, which Mobley should help him do, he will be 26-27 ppg scorer maybe on fewer attempts overall. My guess is he will up his passing because of the many options in the floor and because we added 2 great passers and passing is contagious. If Mobley, Allen, Okoro is anything like Drummond, Nance, Okoro Sexton is going to get a lot of leak out/transition opportunities. He isn't the best at steals, but he can certainly capitalize on them.

Okoro's rookie year (and half of his college year) is also a Covid-fueled nightmare.... I expect that most of the 2nd years will have bigger than normal jump this coming season.

All4One1ForAll said:

They were all bad their rookie years. But Garland and Sexton took huge jumps their second years and you would hope Okoro can do the same.

Per 75 possessions:

Kyrie:
23.9 points / 7.0 assists / 4.8 rebounds / 1.4 steals / 4.0 turnovers / +3.9 rTS%

Sexton:
19.6 points / 3.5 assists / 3.4 rebounds / 0.6 steals / 2.6 turnovers / -4.0 rTS%

Kyrie came in as one of the most NBA- ready rookies we’ve seen in a long time. There’s really no comparison. Comparing them on the basis of possessions is important because pace is so much higher today than it was even 5-10 years ago so it allows you to put their true productivity against one another.

Kyrie scored at a greater rate, assisted at double the rate, and scored at a much higher efficiency. He was 4% better than league average as a rookie! That’s insane. Whereas Sexton was 4% worse than league average.

Kyrie:
4.1 BPM / +4.7 On-Off / +0.97 RAPM

Sexton:
-4.7 BPM / -8.0 On-Off / -3.50 RAPM

It was also very clear from the impact metrics that Kyrie made the team better, whereas Sexton was a very clear negative his rookie season. And they both played on garbage rosters with terrible coaching, so the context is comparable.

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Thanks for digging up all the data. But i think this is just a testament to how good kyrie is going in. Plus, we are comparing 1st pick vs 8th pick here and the question is, did sexton have a bad rookie year?

As you already mentioned it, is a lottery pick that is 4% worse than league average acceptable for a rookie?