Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

I just don't feel like its fair to evaluate Mayfield as a finished product yet. He's had one year and a handful of games with a decent coach. Everything prior to that was a wash and we all know it.

This is a bummer because it doesn't change the fact that we are going to have to pay him or move on. I think you take the risk and pay the guy hoping you see growth next year, which can really only be counted as his third since Jackson and Kitchens were garbage fires. We don't have a better option unless we can flip him for Rodgers somehow.

That Chargers loss is mainly on the defense, but again not their fault since they were pretty banged up. The 4th downs we allowed them to convert and not being able to effectively manage the clock killed us.

I'mWithDan said:

The Steph Curry analogy is honestly ridiculous. You are you a raw singular stat. Is QB rating or QBR a singular stat?

Am I saying he’s a below average passer because his completion percentage is a tick below league average?

They’re not remotely close to the same thing.

Baker was what? 14th in the data you posted? In his best year? That is my point. His best has been average overall and below average in crunch time. I personally would argue bad. Not sure why this is such a hot or hyperbolic take to you. That is what the data says.

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so if overall he is average, but he is below average in crunch time, does that mean at all other times in the game he is above average? Is that how we are going to play this?

It really, really, really sucks that a Baker Mayfield lead offense scored 42 points and he got the L. He needed this win the most because of all the shit that's spewing everywhere.

Hope he comes to dominate vs Murray

Vee-Rex said:

And for the guy who insinuated Mayfield could only "dink and dunk":

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The change really came after his shoulder injury.

In the Chargers game, I only remember two downfield throws. He needs to get back into challenging the deep portion of the field a few times a game. OBJ is getting open - recently heard a stat that OBJ is open 72% of the routes past 5yards down the field - and Baker isn't taking the shot.

Baker is rattled right now because of the bad game against the Lions, so he played conservatively. I'm not saying "this is who he is now." It isn't fair. But he does need to regain some of what is in his passer DNA quick.

Randolphkeys said:

The change really came after his shoulder injury.

In the Chargers game, I only remember two downfield throws. He needs to get back into challenging the deep portion of the field a few times a game. OBJ is getting open - recently heard a stat that OBJ is open 72% of the routes past 5yards down the field - and Baker isn't taking the shot.

Baker is rattled right now because of the bad game against the Lions, so he played conservatively. I'm not saying "this is who he is now." It isn't fair. But he does need to regain some of what is in his passer DNA quick.

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Great observation but the real question is why is he not taking those shots or making those gunslinger throws anymore? Is he being coached to not do that because they don't trust him? I find that hard to believe since there's evidence that those plays are there to be made but for whatever reason Baker isn't pulling the trigger.

He seems to have a confidence issue. I hope he doesn't have the yipps or something like that.

Los216 said:

Great observation but the real question is why is he not taking those shots or making those gunslinger throws anymore? Is he being coached to not do that because they don't trust him? I find that hard to believe since there's evidence that those plays are there to be made but for whatever reason Baker isn't pulling the trigger.

He seems to have a confidence issue. I hope he doesn't have the yipps or something like that.

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If you think back to Baker working under Freddie, he had a problem with taking too many shots in the deep portion of the field.

Was he coached to take what the defense gives him? You are damn right he was, and he needed to be!

Now he is seeing the open player and not pulling the trigger. That is different than pulling the trigger when the receiver is well covered and the safety is on his way to double.

I do believe it's a reaction to his truly awful mechanics against the Texans & Minnesota. He is trying to get right, but recently became conservative to a flaw.

Los216 said:

Baker Mayfield is in a contract year. It is absolutely fair to discuss other potential options during this season.

Are you saying we're not allowed to discuss the future at the QB position if that future doesn't include Baker Mayfield?

I don't get this. You're bothered whenever any other QB options gets discussed yet the team that Baker plays for hasn't offered him an extension yet either so it's not like it's just the fans who aren't completely sold on Baker. The team is obviously not completely sold on him either. If they were then he would be signed.

I said during last season when Baker was playing well that we still have to wait and see if the team is fully committed to him and I got laughed at by people who probably expected him to sign an extension during the offseason. I literally got laughed at and talked down to because I suggested that the team would do exactly what they are doing right now which is carry on like they are not fully committed to Baker Mayfield long term. There is no denying that the team is not fully committed to Baker Mayfield long term and because of that it is completely fair to discuss other option in the Baker Mayfield thread.

So you can accuse me of only talking about replacing Baker when he plays bad but that's simply not true. That's not what I'm doing and I'm not trying to jettison the dude. Plus, I gave Baker his props when he played well down the stretch last season but guess what? That was last season. It's a new season and he still doesn't have that long term deal so you know what people are gonna do? They are going to discuss what our other options are.

If you don't like the discussion or if Baker doesn't like the discussion (his social media statements shows that he clearly doesn't lol) then all Baker has to do is consistently play at a high level. If he does that the noise will go away and the team will commit him. He has not done that so the discussion continues.

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He is signed for next year, so its not technically a contract year. Its just the year you typically see teams negotiate. But there is always the Dak option if you are unsure, let him play out next year, then you can make him play for us for an additional 3 years on a year by year basis. so we have him if we want for 4 more years AFTER this year even if he doesnt sign a new contract. Not ideal, but its not make or break yet.

ShawnKempIsMyDad said:

I just don't feel like its fair to evaluate Mayfield as a finished product yet.

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Agreed. Our expectations for quarterbacks and how good / ready they should be at a given point in time lives on a much shorter timeline than it used too. Its been compounded by head coaches having a much shorter timeframe to prove their the right guys for their jobs as well. I wonder how many good QBs have been ruined by 1) having to start right away and 2) getting a year or two less to develop because the HC that drafted them got fired.

In any case, I get that Baker isn't showing the qualities of some of his peers. Its fair to criticize him as a result. That doesn't meant he can't improve. Hell, you could have labeled Elway a choker because he couldn't win the big game the first four times he tried.

Great breakdown on Baker that Jordan Zirm just released while I was yammering on.

Lee said:

He is signed for next year, so its not technically a contract year. Its just the year you typically see teams negotiate. But there is always the Dak option if you are unsure, let him play out next year, then you can make him play for us for an additional 3 years on a year by year basis. so we have him if we want for 4 more years AFTER this year even if he doesnt sign a new contract. Not ideal, but its not make or break yet.

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Of course. It happened with Kirk Cousins and Dak but it just seems like it's very unlikely that it plays out that way with a player of Baker's stature in this current climate.

Cousins was a 3rd round pick. Dak was a 4th round pick. Baker was the #1 overall pick, set some rookie QB records, and has already won a road playoff game. He'll use those as negotiating tactics.

I think if it becomes a showdown that Baker's representation might feel like it's better for him and his career to move on. If it gets to that. If there's another team out there that can pay him what he wants I don't think they would hesitate to entertain it.

Randolphkeys said:

The change really came after his shoulder injury.

In the Chargers game, I only remember two downfield throws. He needs to get back into challenging the deep portion of the field a few times a game. OBJ is getting open - recently heard a stat that OBJ is open 72% of the routes past 5yards down the field - and Baker isn't taking the shot.

Baker is rattled right now because of the bad game against the Lions, so he played conservatively. I'm not saying "this is who he is now." It isn't fair. But he does need to regain some of what is in his passer DNA quick.

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I really can't tell if it's Stefanski not calling for deep plays or Baker just isn't looking for them.

The posters in this thread have made some sound arguments about his progressions and anticipation being an issue. Could be something that contributes to him shying away from throwing deep too.

The other thing I wonder about is how often does OBJ improvise on his routes? I don't have All 22, so I can't go back to see for myself. For a QB that is both shying from the deep ball and not trusting his eyes this could also be a significant issue. OBJ is open but not where Baker expects him to be.

DirtyDan said:

OBJ is open but not where Baker expects him to be.

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I am way beyond entertaining that old and disproven line of thinking. That was Twitter-hot last off-season.

Most X receiver routes in the NFL are option routes. People with an axe to grind want to put the option route on OBJ, no. That's how the NFL works.

It's on Baker to feed an open X receiver in an option route. Hard pass on putting it on OBJ.

Los216 said:

Of course. It happened with Kirk Cousins and Dak but it just seems like it's very unlikely that it plays out that way with a player of Baker's stature in this current climate.

Cousins was a 3rd round pick. Dak was a 4th round pick. Baker was the #1 overall pick, set some rookie QB records, and has already won a road playoff game. He'll use those as negotiating tactics.

I think if it becomes a showdown that Baker's representation might feel like it's better for him and his career to move on. If it gets to that. If there's another team out there that can pay him what he wants I don't think they would hesitate to entertain it.

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Baker could entertain all he wants, but it doesn't matter: Browns hold all the leverage. Only thing Baker could do is sit out.

Randolphkeys said:

I am way beyond entertaining that old and disproven line of thinking. That was Twitter-hot last off-season.

Most X receiver routes in the NFL are option routes. People with an axe to grind want to put the option route on OBJ, no. That's how the NFL works.

It's on Baker to feed an open X receiver in an option route. Hard pass on putting it on OBJ.

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Oh no, not trying to blame OBJ. OBJ is doing his job, more on Baker to trust what he sees.

I'mWithDan said:

The Steph Curry analogy is honestly ridiculous. You are using a raw singular stat. Is QB rating or QBR a singular stat?

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The Steph analogy was specifically to point out the logical flaw you were using, not to say that Baker is the Steph of the NFL. We've already established that passer ratings when playing from behind are demonstratively lower than passer ratings when playing from ahead. Much like 3P% are clearly lower than 2P%. What you're doing is taking the league average overall passer rating, analogous to FG% in hoops which accounts for both 2P% and 3P%, and using that as the benchmark for evaluating Baker. However, for your evaluation of Baker, you choose his passer rating split for when he's trailing, analogous to 3P%, and then saying that the stats I posted are the definition of below average.

Rather than saying that Baker's overall rating of 95.9 places him above the league average of 93.6, you say that Baker's rating when trailing of 90.3 is worse than the overall league average rating of 93.6 which is the "definition of below average."

Do you not understand how that's the same as ignoring the fact that Steph's FG% of .482 is higher than the league average of .466 and saying that Steph's 3P% of .421 being below .466 is the definition of a below average shooter? Or are you hung up by the fact that I used a player of Steph's magnitude in this analogy? Substitute Gordon Hayward's .415 3P% and .473 FG% if that makes you feel better. Doesn't change the fact that your logic is fundamentally flawed.

I'mWithDan said:

Am I saying he’s a below average passer because his completion percentage is a tick below league average?

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I made zero mention of completion percentage.

I'mWithDan said:

They’re not remotely close to the same thing.

Baker was what? 14th in the data you posted? In his best year? That is my point. His best has been average overall and below average in crunch time. I personally would argue bad. Not sure why this is such a hot or hyperbolic take to you. That is what the data says.

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When I said hyperbolic, I was referring to how you compared him to Charlie Frye. You're absolutely entitled to your own opinion. I don't automatically take issue with any negative Baker takes -- hell, I've left likes on several of them in this thread. All I've been saying, and continue to say, is that it is simply a false assertion to say that the data I posted says that Baker is below average, let alone bad, in these situations. You're misinterpreting the data to compare apples to oranges, and that was the whole point of the "honestly ridiculous" Curry analogy.