Should be noted that Stefanski decided to reprogram Baker and that has been successful according to what Stefanski wanted (I.e. fewer turnovers). That proved Baker is coachable. We know he has the arm to throw downfield.
I‘ll be interested to see how Baker plays the rest of this year. My guess is Stefanski will want him to adjust a bit towards more aggressive play.
For those arguing Stefanski “cost” the Browns a game because of the third down draw play - Kevin admitted it was a bad call, but it was by no means certain a pass play would have worked either.
I think the really difficult thing to decipher is how becoming less risk averse overall has effected his play when risk is necessary.
Baker was most effective on 3rd downs in his rookie year, when he was just slinging the rock. He's been far less effective under Stefanski on 3rd down.
On the flip side, Baker has been wildly effective under Stefanski, on 1st and
especially 2nd down, where scheme and play selection unknown works in his favor
1st down performance:
2018: 127-196, 64.8%, 1649 yards, 8.4 YPA, 11 TD, 5.6 TD%, 7 INT, 3.6% INT, 9 SK, 95.0 Rating
2019: 120-197, 60.9%, 1528 yards, 7.8 YPA, 12 TD, 6.1 TD%, 7 INT, 3.5% INT, 16 SK, 90.7 Rating
2020: 102-167, 61.1%, 1260 yards, 7.5 YPA, 7 TD, 4.2 TD%, 1 INT, 0.6% INT, 6 SK, 95.9 Rating
2021: 43-55, 78.2%, 597 yards, 10.8 YPA, 0 TD, 0.0 TD%, 1 INT, 1.8% INT, 2 SK, 104.3 Rating
2nd down performance:
2019: 99-151, 65.6%, 1007 yards, 6.7 YPA, 7 TD, 4.6 TD%, 2 INT, 1.3% INT, 5 SK, 94.4 Rating
2019: 116-188, 61.7%, 1375 yards, 7.3 YPA, 3 TD, 1.6 TD%, 6 INT, 3.2% INT, 7 SK, 76.0 Rating
2020: 128-182, 70.3%, 1477 yards, 8.1 YPA, 12 TD, 6.6 TD%, 3 INT, 1.6% INT, 14 SK, 109.6 Rating
2021: 35-52, 67.3%, 409 yards, 7.9 YPA, 4 TD, 7.7 TD%, 0 INT, 0.0% INT, 3 SK, 116.6 Rating
Cumulative 1st and 2nd down performance, Under Stefanski:
308-456, 67.5%, 3743 yards, 8.2 YPA, 23 TD, 5.0 TD%, 5 INT, 1.1% INT, 25 SK, 104.82 Rating
Cumulative 3rd down performance, Under Stefanski:
85-159, 54.0%, 935 yards, 5.9 YPA, 6 TD, 3.7 TD%, 5 INT, 3.1% INT, 10 SK, 70.61 Rating
Tough to know if the root issue is "reprogramming" Baker on early downs.......as he's so successful there. Maybe it is tendency on tape, that DC's have seen.....maybe it is bad play calling? Which seems strange, relative to the Browns ranking #8 overall last year in 3rd down % but maybe someone wants to make that argument. Relative to some of the stats pulled on Allen, Jackson....I think it seems far more likely Baker just isn't playing well on 3rd down, for reasons that are probably
mostly attributed to him.