Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

Vee-Rex · Oct 21, 2021

I'mWithDan said:
I'm not defensive. I'm just pointing out that there seems to be this section of our fanbase that thinks they are being tricked by the data or something. It is ESPN's data......I don't really control what it says, I just tell you it correlates to QBR.......and here's a look at all the plays under Stefanski, and how Mayfield compares to the league. That is it.

You said people think you're anti-Baker... that seems defensive in nature.

I'mWithDan said:
Cherry picking? It is all the data under Stefanski. How is it cherry picked? I'm not using it as gospel, I'm saying that Mayfield has not performed like a QB you would pay $30 million to. Maybe you think he has?

Cherry-picked was referencing conditional downs in last week's discussion. That's why I put cherry-picked AND/OR skewed.

I'mWithDan said:
Also, what does skewed mean in your eyes? Is it 100% worse? Is it 50% worse? 25% worse? If it is 1% worse, you don't care? Or 10% worse you don't care?

I'mWithDan said:
I ask, for example......because the Vikings game was horrendous but it wasn't the worst game he's ever played. So it isn't an unrealistic outlier. This isn't Pat Mahomes playing like a raging dumpster fire, as the #1 overall QB in this metric......and doing so in a way that is outside the bounds of what he has done before. Mayfield has played that poorly before under Stefanski. So that is why I view it as less skewed than you do. Because it isn't outside the norm. Will the 2021 data be the only data he'll be evaluated on, I mean no, it won't be.......but I also don't think it should just completely be cast aside either. It holds some value......the disagreement is probably on how much.

He has a fully torn labrum. 100% or 50% worse doesn't matter - we'll never know. If you can't quantify how much impact the injury has had on his performance, then it's skewed data.

This is why it seems like you're anti-Baker. You refuse to let go of skewed data.

Sebastian · Oct 21, 2021

Just a thought.

The price for a franchise QB is nearly prohibitive.

But with Chubb and Hunt, maybe there is a chance to redefine the identity of the team.

And throw all that QB money into the D and turn it into a defensive powerhouse with a run-game focused offense that does not require franchise QB play.

Just idle thought for a loooong season to come.

Bkerr02 · Oct 21, 2021

Sebastian said:
Just a thought.

The price for a franchise QB is nearly prohibitive.

But with Chubb and Hunt, maybe there is a chance to redefine the identity of the team.

And throw all that QB money into the D and turn it into a defensive powerhouse with a run-game focused offense that does not require franchise QB play.

Just idle thought for a loooong season to come.

Or just get rid out of OBJ pay baker, sign a cheaper bet WR that can make plays down the field and let baker distribute the ball bc that’s when he is at his best.

bob2the2nd · Oct 21, 2021

Sebastian said:
Just a thought.

The price for a franchise QB is nearly prohibitive.

But with Chubb and Hunt, maybe there is a chance to redefine the identity of the team.

And throw all that QB money into the D and turn it into a defensive powerhouse with a run-game focused offense that does not require franchise QB play.

Just idle thought for a loooong season to come.

In the era of passing records being broken left and right the browns opt to eliminate the position

I'mWithDan · Oct 21, 2021

bob2the2nd said:
In the era of passing records being broken left and right the browns opt to eliminate the position

That is your interpretation.

Another interpretation is that Stefanski’s scheme is so good, that with a good run game, you only need a league average QB to have a great offense.

We are a top 10 offense this season in DVOA and have the what? #25 ranked QB in QBR?

That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t take a great QB but it does mean I’m not paying an average one a lot of money. Not when an average one can be had for a lot less.

DJTJ · Oct 21, 2021

I'mWithDan said:
That is your interpretation.

Another interpretation is that Stefanski’s scheme is so good, that with a good run game, you only need a league average QB to have a great offense.

We are a top 10 offense this season in DVOA and have the what? #25 ranked QB in QBR?

That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t take a great QB but it does mean I’m not paying an average one a lot of money. Not when an average one can be had for a lot less.

I’ll even add.

The scheme is so wildly efficient that, had this been a better QB draft, you could plug in a more athletic Rookie and get similar results because of how quick read based it is.

I hated Trey Lance in the process, but Kevin’s pass off run scheme would make Trey Lance look insane.

This QB draft just… sucks.

I’ll also say- if Baker had like 25% more athleticism (even as a slippery snake), we probably don’t even have a huge thread of arguement.

Sebastian · Oct 21, 2021

Bkerr02 said:
Or just get rid out of OBJ pay baker, sign a cheaper bet WR that can make plays down the field and let baker distribute the ball bc that’s when he is at his best.

They should have got rid of him last year.

If they could.

With or without him, it doesn't change the fundamental issue.

Sebastian · Oct 21, 2021

bob2the2nd said:
In the era of passing records being broken left and right the browns opt to eliminate the position

A four RB set is the future.

2 For The Brew · Oct 21, 2021

Spirited debate on NFL Network pregame. Joe Thomas does not believe Browns should pay Baker top dollar. Steve Smith was adamant Baker is an average QB. Michael Irvin thought Baker could be a SB QB on this team, but Joe countered that this team was loaded (I.e. dollars in other positions) and Baker might not do as well with a weaker team. Joe wants Browns to take wait and see approach.

DJTJ · Oct 21, 2021

2 For The Brew said:
Spirited debate on NFL Network pregame. Joe Thomas does not believe Browns should pay Baker top dollar. Steve Smith was adamant Baker is an average QB. Michael Irvin thought Baker could be a SB QB on this team, but Joe countered that this team was loaded (I.e. dollars in other positions) and Baker might not do as well with a weaker team. Joe wants Browns to take wait and see approach.

This is… pretty damning that Joe would openly come out with that.

Sebastian · Oct 21, 2021

DJTJ said:
This is… pretty damning that Joe would openly come out with that.

Injuries are a thing, but he is not wrong.

This team should be the contending for the AFC title.

But it is hard to discern what is a product of key injuries and where there may be some underachieving.

That goes for Baker and the D.

bigfoot5415 · Oct 21, 2021

2 For The Brew said:
Spirited debate on NFL Network pregame. Joe Thomas does not believe Browns should pay Baker top dollar. Steve Smith was adamant Baker is an average QB. Michael Irvin thought Baker could be a SB QB on this team, but Joe countered that this team was loaded (I.e. dollars in other positions) and Baker might not do as well with a weaker team. Joe wants Browns to take wait and see approach.

Irvin had a front row seat to Aikmans career and saw that he won 3 titles. The game is different but Aikman was JAG. He only has a handful of 300 ypg outings, turned the ball over and was never like some of the others guys of the day. I'm pretty sure he only threw 4 games of 300 yards or more.

Baker can win but it's gotta be when he is healthy and guys are clicking. Problem is he will won't top dollar & it doesn't make financial sense for us.

As for Joe's comments, he's right. Everyone will agree. Can't pay him now. Gotta wait until you see him healthy next year. Unless he balls out of course.

Douglar · Oct 21, 2021

Amherstcavsfan said:
I would caution using only stats to judge who who is the better QB. People argued that Stafford wasn't an upgrade on Goff because of these statistics, so the eyes have to be used somewhat.

If you are doing stats only on a QB, you have to find some way to set a base level performance considering the quality of the offensive line, quality of the running backs, quality of the receivers, and the quality of the play calling. I know it's a lot to factor in, but it will be interesting to see how Keenum does.

bob2the2nd · Oct 21, 2021

I'mWithDan said:
That is your interpretation.

Another interpretation is that Stefanski’s scheme is so good, that with a good run game, you only need a league average QB to have a great offense.

We are a top 10 offense this season in DVOA and have the what? #25 ranked QB in QBR?

That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t take a great QB but it does mean I’m not paying an average one a lot of money. Not when an average one can be had for a lot less.

DJTJ · Oct 21, 2021

Glazer announced Baker broke his humerus bond.

Baker… wants to play next week.

Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

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