CBBI
Super Chill Mode
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One guy keeps coming to my mind when comparing 26 year old Baker to no other than... 26 year old Drew Brees.
Brees: 30-28, 80 TD, 53 Int, 12,348 Yds, 62% Comp, 6.8 Y/A, 84.9 Rtg
Baker: 28-27, 85 TDs, 49 Int, 13,281 Yds, 62% Comp, 7.5 Y/A, 89.4 Rtg
Root for the breakup all you want, his best play is still ahead, and if last season proved anything... you want that healthy Baker leading your team more than 20 others.
Saints will be glad to have history repeat itself with acquiring Baker.
Context is king.
The NFL has altered the rules and slanted things so favorably toward passing offenses since 2005 that it's practically a different sport.
Personally, I think it's disingenuous to say Brees' significant improvement after age 26 is primarily a result of more experience or natural development or whatever you're suggesting.
It's more realistic IMO to say that Brees' numbers exploded for three reasons.
1. Brees went from playing 95% of his games outdoors to more than half of his games indoors (all home games + 1 game a year at Atlanta). Drew for his career has a 104.6 QB rating indoors vs. 92.5 QB rating outdoors.
2. Brees went from the notoriously conservative Marty Schottenheimer as his head coach in San Diego to one of the greatest offensive minds of all time in Sean Payton.
3. Most important of all, Brees' individual statistical explosion just so happened to coincide with NFL passing offenses league wide exploding. Brees didn't just magically get 30% better than he was as he aged. He was always really good + he started playing indoors + he got paired up with a Hall of Fame offensive coach + (and most important) passing simply got exponentially easier around the league as his career went on.
-Baker's playing in a bad weather city, that isn't changing if he stays in Cleveland.
-Baker's playing under one of the more highly regarded young offensive minds in the league, that isn't changing anytime soon if he stays in Cleveland.
-Baker's already playing in the most pass friendly era in NFL history. It seems highly unlikely the game is going to fundamentally change to where passing becomes tremendously easier than it already is right now.
Here are some numbers to chew on...
League averages in 2005: 59.5 completion %, 6.8 yards per attempt, 203.5 yards per game, 80.1 QB rating
League averages in 2021: 65.4 completion %, 7.3 yards per attempt, 237.7 yards per game, 92.2 QB rating
Brees' career numbers in 2005 when he was 26 still slotted him as a well above league average QB under that set of rules and how the game was played. Brees ranked 10th in the league in passer rating in 2005.
Baker's numbers at age 26 are a notch below the league average.
Can he get better? Maybe/probably/hopefully.
Is it realistic to expect Brees' level improvement given what we know about the how and why Brees' numbers improved as much as they did? I don't think so.