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The Cavs travel to Milwaukee for the second game of a back-to-back after losing to the 15-7 Jazz by a point. The Bucks are 15-9 and are defending NBA Champions. They’re 8-4 at home. This game looks like a schedule loss, especially since the Bucks were off yesterday.
It doesn’t really matter if the Cavs lose; they’re not going to be battling Milwaukee for home court advantage in the playoffs. The Bucks should be contending with Brooklyn (16-7) and Chicago (16-8) for one of the top three spots.
The Bucks started the season 6-8 but have since won 9 of 10. However, those nine wins were against teams ranked 10, 11, 17, 20, 24, 28, 28, 29, and 30 by CBSsports. The 10th ranked team, Miami, was playing without Butler and Adebayo. The Bucks beat the 11th ranked team, Charlotte, by 2 points at home. So I’m not that impressed with their 9 wins in 10 games. It was a massive soft spot in the schedule.
The key to this game will be whether Giannis plays. He missed the last two games and is currently listed as questionable with a calf injury. Starting shooting guard Grayson Allen and backup point guard George Hill are also questionable. This game could come down to who is available for the Bucks.
Giannis has a line of 27.6/11.8/6.0 on 53.2% from the field. He may be the best player in the NBA. His only weakness is he’s shooting 27.6% on 3’s.
If Giannis, Allen, and Hill are all out the Bucks will have to find 49 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists from their bench. Those three combine for 89 minutes a game, which would pretty much wipe out their bench in addition to making their starting unit much weaker.
Khris Middleton is averaging 17.8 ppg on 41.8%. Jrue Holiday is averaging 15.3 ppg and Allen is getting 13.8 points on 45.6% and 42.6%. He’s their best 3-point shooter so if he’s out it would be significant. Center Bobby Portis is averaging 15.3 ppg and is hitting 41.7% of his 3’s.
The Bucks are very similar to the Jazz in that they are heavily reliant on 3-point shooting. They’re 7th in points per game but 28th in points in the paint. They score mainly from outside, ranking 3rd in percentage of points on 3’s and 28th on percentage from 2’s. Only three teams shoot more 3’s per game than Milwaukee. They rank 8th in 3-point percentage.
Last night the Cavs gave up 20 three-pointers and lost by a point. They need to defend the 3 better tonight against a team with the same approach.
Defensively the Bucks are average, ranking 14th in points per game. They don’t get many blocks or steals but rank 6th in points in the paint allowed per game and 5th in 3-point shooting percentage.
This looks like a similar opponent to last night in that the Bucks shoot a ton of 3’s, make a high percentage of them, and get more of their points from 3’s than all but two teams (Utah is one of them).
Giannis is averaging 10.2 free throw attempts per game and the Cavs commit the fewest fouls per game in the league, so it will be interesting to see how often he gets to the line (if he plays).
My feeling is that when Giannis bulls his way into the paint the Cavs should just let Allen or Mobley contest his shot rather than converging on him and leaving open shooters at the 3-point line. If he makes the shot or draws the foul - fine. He’s a 67% free throw shooter. Just don’t collapse the defense and give up easy 3’s to a team that is 8th in 3-point percentage. I don’t care if Giannis gets 30 in the paint as long we we shut down their 3-point shooters.
Jrue Holiday is a first team All-NBA defender, so it will be a great matchup between him and Darius Garland, who is coming off back-to-back 30-point games.
Bobby Portis, their 6’10” center, is playing really well and hitting 41.7% from deep so either Mobley, Allen, or Markkanen needs to stay close to him when he drifts out to the perimeter.
Pat Connaughton, a 6’5” wing, has an effective shooting percentage of 64.1% which leads the team and is in the 96th percentile for his position. He’s hitting 42% from deep, 62% from midrange, and 71% at the rim. He only takes 9 shots a game (in 29 minutes), but he can’t be left open.
If Giannis plays it doesn’t look good for the Cavs, although they have the height to contest his shots in the paint and make him earn his points. If he doesn’t play I’d say the Cavs’ chances are very good, especially if Grayson and/or Hill are also out. The Bucks are 1-2 with Giannis out. That win was against Miami with Butler and Adebayo out.
It doesn’t really matter if the Cavs lose; they’re not going to be battling Milwaukee for home court advantage in the playoffs. The Bucks should be contending with Brooklyn (16-7) and Chicago (16-8) for one of the top three spots.
The Bucks started the season 6-8 but have since won 9 of 10. However, those nine wins were against teams ranked 10, 11, 17, 20, 24, 28, 28, 29, and 30 by CBSsports. The 10th ranked team, Miami, was playing without Butler and Adebayo. The Bucks beat the 11th ranked team, Charlotte, by 2 points at home. So I’m not that impressed with their 9 wins in 10 games. It was a massive soft spot in the schedule.
The key to this game will be whether Giannis plays. He missed the last two games and is currently listed as questionable with a calf injury. Starting shooting guard Grayson Allen and backup point guard George Hill are also questionable. This game could come down to who is available for the Bucks.
Giannis has a line of 27.6/11.8/6.0 on 53.2% from the field. He may be the best player in the NBA. His only weakness is he’s shooting 27.6% on 3’s.
If Giannis, Allen, and Hill are all out the Bucks will have to find 49 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists from their bench. Those three combine for 89 minutes a game, which would pretty much wipe out their bench in addition to making their starting unit much weaker.
Khris Middleton is averaging 17.8 ppg on 41.8%. Jrue Holiday is averaging 15.3 ppg and Allen is getting 13.8 points on 45.6% and 42.6%. He’s their best 3-point shooter so if he’s out it would be significant. Center Bobby Portis is averaging 15.3 ppg and is hitting 41.7% of his 3’s.
The Bucks are very similar to the Jazz in that they are heavily reliant on 3-point shooting. They’re 7th in points per game but 28th in points in the paint. They score mainly from outside, ranking 3rd in percentage of points on 3’s and 28th on percentage from 2’s. Only three teams shoot more 3’s per game than Milwaukee. They rank 8th in 3-point percentage.
Last night the Cavs gave up 20 three-pointers and lost by a point. They need to defend the 3 better tonight against a team with the same approach.
Defensively the Bucks are average, ranking 14th in points per game. They don’t get many blocks or steals but rank 6th in points in the paint allowed per game and 5th in 3-point shooting percentage.
This looks like a similar opponent to last night in that the Bucks shoot a ton of 3’s, make a high percentage of them, and get more of their points from 3’s than all but two teams (Utah is one of them).
Giannis is averaging 10.2 free throw attempts per game and the Cavs commit the fewest fouls per game in the league, so it will be interesting to see how often he gets to the line (if he plays).
My feeling is that when Giannis bulls his way into the paint the Cavs should just let Allen or Mobley contest his shot rather than converging on him and leaving open shooters at the 3-point line. If he makes the shot or draws the foul - fine. He’s a 67% free throw shooter. Just don’t collapse the defense and give up easy 3’s to a team that is 8th in 3-point percentage. I don’t care if Giannis gets 30 in the paint as long we we shut down their 3-point shooters.
Jrue Holiday is a first team All-NBA defender, so it will be a great matchup between him and Darius Garland, who is coming off back-to-back 30-point games.
Bobby Portis, their 6’10” center, is playing really well and hitting 41.7% from deep so either Mobley, Allen, or Markkanen needs to stay close to him when he drifts out to the perimeter.
Pat Connaughton, a 6’5” wing, has an effective shooting percentage of 64.1% which leads the team and is in the 96th percentile for his position. He’s hitting 42% from deep, 62% from midrange, and 71% at the rim. He only takes 9 shots a game (in 29 minutes), but he can’t be left open.
If Giannis plays it doesn’t look good for the Cavs, although they have the height to contest his shots in the paint and make him earn his points. If he doesn’t play I’d say the Cavs’ chances are very good, especially if Grayson and/or Hill are also out. The Bucks are 1-2 with Giannis out. That win was against Miami with Butler and Adebayo out.