So, we are 4 days and change away from all this GM first half and GM 2nd half trade talk becoming mute and just a fantasy until November. The closer we get, the less movement that I expect. Remember the big Miller & Lucroy trades happened early on July 31 (before Sunday church) so they were done overnight. Bauer happened the night on July 30th (announced next morning after a bit of angst with Puig fight). Clevinger was a few hrs before the Aug 31 4pm trade deadline (so again rumblings by morning). Other trades (smaller trades) broke at the last minute. I expect we know what major trades are happening by Tues Morning (so just 4 days away). Guardians slow play just doesn't make a big last-minute blockbuster a real possibility.
Yet, as we wait, I thought I would go over the payroll situation again as people keep on forgetting that it is a factor even with a new minority owner.
Remember, there are times we will be low on payroll (like now) and other times we will be high (more like Miller/Lucroy/EE go all in type of deals in trades/FA in 16 as window was wide open for a few yrs). But, overall, we should expect $100 million as a long-term target. We are under for 2022 and 23 but 24 starts a huge spike ... let me show why (Source
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/cleveland-guardians-salaries-and-contracts.shtml)
24 25 26 (Year)
Locked in pieces
17 19 21 Ramirez
5 6 7 Straw
3 5 6 Clase (then 10 million in 27)
2 2 2 (Guardians Share of new pre-arb bonus pool - part of payroll)
-- -- --
27 32 36 (Not bad but just 3 players)
2024 Free Agents -- Rosario
12 14 16 (If Resigned to team friendly deal for SS who is smashing the ball)
2025 Free Agents -- Bieber Reyes (assume Reyes gone)
20 20 20 Bieber (team friendly contract - bit more than Jose)
If Both Resigned
59 66 72 (but just for 5 guys)
2026 Free Agents -- Gose, Civale, Plesac, Mercado (okay nothing to worry about here but may have 1 of Civale/Plesac) but also Quantril & Naylor
A2 A3 FA
7 9 10 CIvale (assuming a cheap contract)
10 12 15 Quantril
10 12 15 Naylor (who I would resign with his brother in the wings)
-- -- --
27 33 40
2027 Free Agents -- Gimenez, Karinchak, McK, Stephan, DeSantos (Potentially Hentges and Sandlin as Super 2)
A1 A2 A3
7 10 14 Gimenez (All star potential SS)
7 10 14 McK (edited as I forgot him)
4 6 8 Karinchak (middle bullpen say maybe a bit high but left off DeSantos and Hentges)
4 6 8 Stephan (middle bullpen)
-- -- --
22 32 44
108 131 156 For just
11 guys (add in minimum of $15 million for next 15 players) and you have
$123, $146, $166 with next wave of arbs hitting in 2025 with Kwan, Morgan and Miller) -- And a few maybe high but I was probably low on others like Bieber and Rosario too ... hopefully it is in a low area overall (to prove my point on hitting $100 million payroll is easy with just a few big players) and thus must be carefully managed.
And, this is without any trades for Murphy or others ... so to get $123 million to $100, you got to pick Bieber or Rosario to trade (assume Reyes is gone with Naylor/Jose/others taking DH for rest) and the problem gets worse in 2025 ... but we can go over then in WS year but not before, so you get my point ... Bieber, Rosario, Big Time Catcher or other trade now ... pick 1???? Can't have it all in Cleveland, sorry.... you may not even get one ... especially a all-star catcher or if Rosario get more than just $12 million with how he is breaking out.
