The Guardians go for a series split today with a 12:05 start time. The game is being shown on the Peacock network. Don't ask me how to watch it.
This also represents the end of the gauntlet the G's had to run to start the second half, playing 18 games in 17 days, no off days, and with all but 3 games coming against winning teams. The Guardians are 9-8 so the worst they can do is 9-9. They are two games behind the Twins going into tomorrow's day off.
Tristan McKenzie goes for the Guardians. Tristan has been a little shaky lately, having allowed four runs in each of his last two starts over 6 and 7 innings. Not terrible, but not as dominant as we've seen him. Tristan punked the Astros in Houston in late May, going 7 innings while allowing just 3 hits and 1 run. It would be great to get a repeat of that performance today.
Tristan needs to make sure he gets up early and drinks his coffee. In his last start he was not sharp in the first inning, walking the first two hitters and giving up three runs on a blast by Christian Walker. In the previous game he shut out the Red Sox until a 3-run homer by Bogaerts in the 6th. Today he needs to stay away from the 3-run dinger.
Christian Javier, another 25-year-old righty, goes for the Stros. Javier is 6-7, 3.24. He dominated the Guardians in May, shutting them out on three hits in 5.2 innings. He's their #5 starter. No wonder they're 30 games over .500.
Javier's ERA is very good but he has been slipping a bit. His month-by-month ERA's, starting in April, are 1.35, 2.93, 3.32, and 4.56. Definitely a trend. He has great stuff (128 K's in 94 innings), but his effectiveness has been gradually declining as the season goes on.
Javier has pitched 94 innings so far as opposed to 101 all of last season when he was mostly a relief pitcher, so fatigue may be part of it.
Also, Javier's road ERA is 4.15 against 2.60 at home, so there's another factor that may be in the Guardians' favor.
If you let Javier get two strikes on you, forget it. His BAA's with two strikes are:
0-2: .091
1-2: .125
2-2: .073
3-2: .146
But if you jump him in the first three pitches...
0-0: .357
0-1: .478
1-0: .118
1-1: .444
2-1 is also a great count as batters are hitting .455 when they put that pitch in play.
When I see numbers like this for pitcher after pitcher it makes me realize just how much batters let the count get inside their heads. Javier doesn't throw bad pitches early in the count and great pitches late. It's that when hitters get two strikes on them they are so focused on NOT taking strike three that they "expand the zone" and swing at bad pitches they wouldn't swing at with 0 or 1 strike.
Jose Ramirez is a big offender. When he hits the ball on an 0-2 count he's hitting .182. On a 1-2 count it's .264. At 2-2 he's hitting .169 and when he hits a 3-2 pitch he's hitting .200.
He constantly chases bad pitches with two strikes. Usually he fouls them off, but it still prevents him from getting into a better hitter's count. At 0-2 he'll foul off two pitches way off the plate and stay at 0-2 rather than get to 2-2. Jose is having a great season but he could be so much better if he were a little more selective with two strikes and work his way into better counts. He also gets himself out swinging at pitches out of the zone with two strikes as the numbers clearly show.
So let's jump on Javier early in the count and not let him get to two strikes. Get an early lead like yesterday and ride another 7-inning, 1-run game by Tristan to an easy win and a series split.
