CBBI
Super Chill Mode
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2005
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The effort and results (or lack thereof) kind of speaks for itself. Exactly what has KS proven as a head coach, in terms of wins, given the talent he has available? That is the bottom line.
I haven't said he can't get there. But to say he is at this moment what he needs to be as a head coach is disingenuous. He's shown himself to be a good offensive mind. He still needs to prove he is a good head coach, by his results.
Are you familiar with the "expected win/loss" metric? It's a formula based on total points scored and total points allowed and it provides an estimate on how many games a team "should" have won and lost.
The Browns since Stefanski's been here "should" have gone 20-23 and have actually gone 22-21.
Kevin Stefanski
2020 Expected: 7.7-8.3
2020 Actual 11-5 (+3.3)
2021 Expected: 7.9-9.1
2021 Actual 8-9 (+0.1)
2022 Expected: 4.3-5.7
2022 Actual: 3-7 (-1.3)
Total: 2.1 wins over expectation.
Let's look at some other coaches during that time frame. We'll start with the division...
John Harbaugh
2020 Expected: 11.8-4.2
2020 Actual: 11-5 (-0.8)
2021 Expected: 8.4-8.6
2021 Actual: 8-9 (-0.4)
2022 Expected: 6.3-3.7
2022 Actual: 7-3 (+0.7)
Total: 0.5 wins under expectation
Zac Taylor
2020 Expected: 5.2-10.8
2020 Actual: 4-11-1 (-1.2)
2021 Expected: 10.5-6.5
2021 Actual: 10-7 (-0.5)
2022 Expected: 6.2-3.8
2022 Actual: 6-4 (+0.2)
Total: 1.5 wins under expectation
Mike Tomlin
2020 Expected: 10.6-5.4
2020 Actual: 12-4 (+1.4)
2021 Expected: 7.0-10.0
2021 Actual: 9-7-1 (+2.0)
2022 Expected: 3.0-7.0
2022 Actual: 3-7 (Even)
Total: 3.4 wins over expectation
Since you specifically mentioned you liked Belichick and his style of coaching, here are his totals from the same time frame...
Bill Belichick
2020 Expected: 7.2-8.8
2020 Actual: 7-9 (-0.2)
2021 Expected: 12.4-4.6
2021 Actual: 10-7 (-2.4)
2022 Expected: 6.3-3.7
2022 Actual: 6-3 (+0.3)
TOTAL: 2.3 wins under expectation