The Kevin Stefanski: Two-Time Coach of the Year Thread

buzzdog said:

The effort and results (or lack thereof) kind of speaks for itself. Exactly what has KS proven as a head coach, in terms of wins, given the talent he has available? That is the bottom line.

I haven't said he can't get there. But to say he is at this moment what he needs to be as a head coach is disingenuous. He's shown himself to be a good offensive mind. He still needs to prove he is a good head coach, by his results.

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Are you familiar with the "expected win/loss" metric? It's a formula based on total points scored and total points allowed and it provides an estimate on how many games a team "should" have won and lost.

The Browns since Stefanski's been here "should" have gone 20-23 and have actually gone 22-21.

Kevin Stefanski
2020 Expected: 7.7-8.3
2020 Actual 11-5 (+3.3)

2021 Expected: 7.9-9.1
2021 Actual 8-9 (+0.1)

2022 Expected: 4.3-5.7
2022 Actual: 3-7 (-1.3)

Total: 2.1 wins over expectation.

Let's look at some other coaches during that time frame. We'll start with the division...

John Harbaugh
2020 Expected: 11.8-4.2
2020 Actual: 11-5 (-0.8)

2021 Expected: 8.4-8.6
2021 Actual: 8-9 (-0.4)

2022 Expected: 6.3-3.7
2022 Actual: 7-3 (+0.7)

Total: 0.5 wins under expectation

Zac Taylor
2020 Expected: 5.2-10.8
2020 Actual: 4-11-1 (-1.2)

2021 Expected: 10.5-6.5
2021 Actual: 10-7 (-0.5)

2022 Expected: 6.2-3.8
2022 Actual: 6-4 (+0.2)

Total: 1.5 wins under expectation

Mike Tomlin
2020 Expected: 10.6-5.4
2020 Actual: 12-4 (+1.4)

2021 Expected: 7.0-10.0
2021 Actual: 9-7-1 (+2.0)

2022 Expected: 3.0-7.0
2022 Actual: 3-7 (Even)

Total: 3.4 wins over expectation

Since you specifically mentioned you liked Belichick and his style of coaching, here are his totals from the same time frame...

Bill Belichick
2020 Expected: 7.2-8.8
2020 Actual: 7-9 (-0.2)

2021 Expected: 12.4-4.6
2021 Actual: 10-7 (-2.4)

2022 Expected: 6.3-3.7
2022 Actual: 6-3 (+0.3)

TOTAL: 2.3 wins under expectation

Clearly the best move would have been to keep baker and fire stefanski.

TyGuy said:

Clearly the best move would have been to keep baker and fire stefanski.

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Praying this is sarcasm.

Baker has been benched this year for both PJ Walker and now Sam Darnold.

I know a lot of people here were perfectly willing to just flush this season when the 11 game suspension was announced. I stayed in wait and see mode because our schedule indicated we could have a chance of still being a playoff team. Then the first half of the season happened where we suffered one self inflicted wound after another. We lost a number of games we should have won. There are people who blindly support Stefanski who in no way hold him accountable for those losses. I do. I think he had control over decisions and actions that could have and should have resulted in wins instead of catastrophic losses, especially in the close games. In the games where we got blown out I question if KS and his staff had the team truly prepared to play, the results in those games indicate they didn't. You can completely absolve KS of all responsibility for this season results to date. I don't, and I believe there are head coaches who could have gotten better results with the exact same roster we have now. You can disagree.

I still am not saying KS can't develop and grow into a better head coach. I am saying he is not there at this point in time. If he was there we would be on a trajectory for the playoffs this season. That's my honest opinion and it's based on watching every play in every game, coming away thinking there were some poor decisions, things I wanted to see done differently in real time. There is no doubt Watson will help and KS will likely thrive with him. But KS does not deserve my blind trust. I'll buy in if and when we have the results, and not before.

buzzdog said:

I know a lot of people here were perfectly willing to just flush this season when the 11 game suspension was announced. I stayed in wait and see mode because our schedule indicated we could have a chance of still being a playoff team. Then the first half of the season happened where we suffered one self inflicted wound after another. We lost a number of games we should have won. There are people who blindly support Stefanski who in no way hold him accountable for those losses. I do. I think he had control over decisions and actions that could have and should have resulted in wins instead of catastrophic losses, especially in the close games. In the games where we got blown out I question if KS and his staff had the team truly prepared to play, the results in those games indicate they didn't. You can completely absolve KS of all responsibility for this season results to date. I don't, and I believe there are head coaches who could have gotten better results with the exact same roster we have now. You can disagree.

I still am not saying KS can't develop and grow into a better head coach. I am saying he is not there at this point in time. If he was there we would be on a trajectory for the playoffs this season. That's my honest opinion and it's based on watching every play in every game, coming away thinking there were some poor decisions, things I wanted to see done differently in real time. There is no doubt Watson will help and KS will likely thrive with him. But KS does not deserve my blind trust. I'll buy in if and when we have the results, and not before.

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I'll ask you the same question I asked Triplethreat a few pages back.

Change absolutely nothing else and simply replace Brissett with Watson in game 1 instead of game 11 and what do you think the Browns record is this season?

CBBI said:

I'll ask you the same question I asked Triplethreat a few pages back.

Change absolutely nothing else and simply replace Brissett with Watson in game 1 instead of game 11 and what do you think the Browns record is this season?

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The fact is it was Brissett and not Watson. Therefore an adjustment was required and I don't think there was a proper adjustment made.

I know everyone here tells me that you can't win in the NFL unless you run a pass heavy attack. However there are a number of teams with excellent records who have won with pretty low level passing attacks. Those teams have made adjustments in order to win games with better time of possession, defense, and complimentary football... things the Browns have been unable to execute. I expected KS to figure out how to win games with the players we have on the field, and I totally believe that was not an impossible task, and he failed to accomplish that task.

Buzzdog, I feel where you're coming from but here is the issue I'm having with your posts.

buzzdog said:

The fact is it was Brissett and not Watson. Therefore an adjustment was required and I don't think there was a proper adjustment made.

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The issue becomes layered. Defenses sometimes dictate what you can and cannot do as an offense. Brissett is not Watson and I believe Stefanski recognizes it, but if a defense is going to take away a cog (like the run) on a particular play then sometimes you just HAVE to trust your backup QB.

For example, if you're more of a jump shooter in basketball and not as good at driving to the rim but I'm glued to you like flies on dog shit, you might have to drive towards the basket to get me to loosen up a bit. Even if that doesn't become your identity, you have to use what is viewed as a weak part of your game to increase the chances of success for the strong part of your game.

I'm on record for criticizing Stefanski here and there. I did it last year when teams were going heavy-formation and stopping the run, daring us to go spread with Baker. Baker failed to execute over and over. The answer wasn't to just run into a brick wall over and over, but figure out how to exploit the obvious defensive looks they were giving us. I felt like going spread but in an 11 personnel would be easier for Baker to execute with... and sure enough after about a week of my bitching, Stefanski made that adjustment. We saw more 3-wide shotgun instead of 5-wide.

Baker still sucked lol, but I think Stefanski can be a bit slow with adjusting. That's a criticism I have but I also have to understand that I don't have as much information as him, nor do I know the game like him, so I'm not going to trash him up and down about it particularly when, looking at the WHOLE PICTURE, he has gotten better performances out of Baker and Jacoby than anyone ever has.

buzzdog said:

I know everyone here tells me that you can't win in the NFL unless you run a pass heavy attack. However there are a number of teams with excellent records who have won with pretty low level passing attacks. Those teams have made adjustments in order to win games with better time of possession, defense, and complimentary football... things the Browns have been unable to execute. I expected KS to figure out how to win games with the players we have on the field, and I totally believe that was not an impossible task, and he failed to accomplish that task.

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Okay... so we've already identified that the losing is primarily because of defense and special teams. So at this point Stefanski has 3 options:

1. Start coaching defense and special teams.
2. Get in dudes faces on the sidelines, yell, throw dudes under the bus during press conferences. Goes completely away from his method of coaching and try to "inspire" enough for wins to magically appear.
3. Fire defensive and special teams coaching staffs.

1 and 2 won't happen. Only 3 will fix it, and disagree or not it probably won't happen until the offseason.

I feel like you're laying it on pretty hard because he's the HC, which is fine... but seem unwilling to acknowledge that the solution probably won't happen until the offseason.

Now I do agree that I would like to see better situational play-calling. However, it's very likely that a lot of those situational play-calls become less glaring when we have Watson at QB, and when our defense is better than historically bad. No one tends to care when he screws up a few play calls in route to a 32-13 Bengals blowout.

buzzdog said:

The fact is it was Brissett and not Watson. Therefore an adjustment was required and I don't think there was a proper adjustment made.

I know everyone here tells me that you can't win in the NFL unless you run a pass heavy attack. However there are a number of teams with excellent records who have won with pretty low level passing attacks. Those teams have made adjustments in order to win games with better time of possession, defense, and complimentary football... things the Browns have been unable to execute. I expected KS to figure out how to win games with the players we have on the field, and I totally believe that was not an impossible task, and he failed to accomplish that task.

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So you're not going to answer the hypothetical question? Pretty weak.

My personal opinion is that you're choosing not to answer because you know the Browns record would likely be something like 6-4 and your "Stefanski stinks!" takes would look a lot worse.

There is no doubt in my mind that the people thinking Stefanski sucks would be calling for Mike Tomlin's head right now if they were Steelers fans.

There isn't an evaluation going on. It's "my team has disappointed me. I want a new head coach."

CBBI said:

So you're not going to answer the hypothetical question? Pretty weak.

My personal opinion is that you're choosing not to answer because you know the Browns record would likely be something like 6-4 and your "Stefanski stinks!" takes would look a lot w

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I never said Stefanski stinks. I am saying his skill as a winning head coach in the NFL is yet to be determined, and you can't say he IS a winning head coach at this point in time. I can say I am disappointed in his results this season, and I think he could have and should have gotten better results.

Let me ask you this, are you satisfied with this season? Do you think we won all the games we should have won? Do you think Stefanski bears no responsibility for the games we gave away by shooting ourselves repeatedly in the foot? How happy are you with being 3 and 8? Is that the best you think was possible?

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

There is no doubt in my mind that the people thinking Stefanski sucks would be calling for Mike Tomlin's head right now if they were Steelers fans.

There isn't an evaluation going on. It's "my team has disappointed me. I want a new head coach."

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Apples and oranges. How many games have the Steelers just completely blown with their own mistakes, versus just being outmatched in talent?

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

There is no doubt in my mind that the people thinking Stefanski sucks would be calling for Mike Tomlin's head right now if they were Steelers fans.

There isn't an evaluation going on. It's "my team has disappointed me. I want a new head coach."

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Bottom line is you think KS's shit don't stink, and you accept everything he does without question, he can do no wrong. At least that's how I'm reading your tone right now.

buzzdog said:

Apples and oranges. How many games have the Steelers just completely blown with their own mistakes, versus just being outmatched in talent?

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A ton. One of their largest problems right now is a terrible offense and a terrible offensive coordinator.

What, is their first round pick QB supposed to look significantly worse than the backup QB the Browns picked up off the street as a free agent?

buzzdog said:

Bottom line is you think KS's shit don't stink, and you accept everything he does without question, he can do no wrong. At least that's how I'm reading your tone right now.

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That's not it at all, but it's cool to see you swinging your fists this way for a minute.

I think Stefanski is up there with guys like McVay. Elite offensive coordinators and pretty damn good head coaches that people like to play for. I expect him and AVP to own the offense, and I expect the DC to own the defense.

As I said before--when I see these defensive woes, I pin them on Woods. It's the same way I wouldn't give McVay credit for what Wade Phillips did, Andy Reid credit for what Spags has done, etc.

I think that keeping Woods around this long is a mistake. I expect that mistake to be rectified heading into 2023. If it isn't, I will be warming that HC seat up with you.

The Oi said:

THIS is a fan that GETS IT.

@WellYouNeednt

Let’s make this easy on the board.

Remember this word:
HEAT

Hold
Each other
Accountable
Today

See a guy wearing a Browns hat not paying attention to the game? Flip the hat over til he picks his idiot head up.

See a woman giggling at her probable boyfriend at the bar while he’s trying to focus on the game? Ask her who her favorite player on the 1997 AFC Championship team was.

Is it mid-day on Monday and your daughter is asking you to watch her shitty Cocomelon show instead of watching the replay of Sunday’s game? Give her a bag of Flamin Hot Cheetos and tell her to go play in traffic.

Enough of the bullshit guys.

MAN UP

Must
Always
eNjoy Games with friends
Under
Pressure

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Now you're lucky I'm a (semi-) good sport, and will tip the hat here.

But the context is this: in that voice chat, I was trying to Nick Chubb my way through someone interjecting all kinds of doomerism about Stefanski and whatnot. Every sentence was a "what about, what about".

So many people just need to chill and be taken off the ledge with regards to this head coaching topic and the Browns in general. Like, I get it. The team is losing. But some have 0 patience for the process. This looks like the status quo, but it isn't. One side of the ball is doing enough to win. The other isn't. The team needs to have an answer for that.

If this team goes into 2023 season, with an All-Pro QB but neglecting the very obvious reason (defense) they've taken the losses they have? and the results are the same? Flame away.

The Steelers suck. The Bungles are mid. Baltimore is the one in the way. Cleveland has made some significant investment to take advantage of this situation, and I trust they will do more. That's Not the status quo. The status quo is running it back with a Dublin Dillweed (Quinn) type QB and shrugging it off.

Since firing coaches is clearly off the table until after the season, am I correct in saying we're generally all in agreement that there isn't much Stefanski himself can do from a head coaching perspective to make the Browns defense and special teams play better on a week-to-week basis?

Do we all accept there's basically no legitimate fix for the defense or the special teams until the offseason?

Now... if we do accept that, then the people criticizing Stefanski are doing so under the guise that he hasn't been able to do enough with the offense and with his game management to overcome the 31st and 27th ranked defenses and special teams units according to DVOA. And for the record, there's no a single team in the NFL according to DVOA with a worse combination of DEF/ST than the Browns.

And if that where we're at, then you're losing me with that argument.

The league average is 342.6 yards per game and 22.5 points per game.

The Browns have lost 3 games this year where they topped both of those totals, most in the AFC and 2nd most in the NFL. The only team in the NFL who has lost games than the Browns under those circumstances is 4-6 Lions (who not coincidentally are coached by Meathead Dan Campbell who certain people have said Stefanski should act and coach like).

This is a very good offense that is being failed a whole hell of a lot more often and more viciously by a truly awful defense and special teams than it is by Stefanski's alleged shortcomings as a play caller, his situational awareness and his decision making.