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2023 Season | Series #15 | Guardians @ Mets | May 19-21, 2023

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This doesn't mean anything yet, but I assume Bo is up for tomorrow as 27th man. I know they can go pitcher but with Gaddis scheduled for Monday and Plesac going last night, that leaves Cantillo on 40-man roster and rest of position players in the lineup already - Collins, Oscar, Palacios, Rocchio, ... Valera hasn't played in 2 games (assume dinged up). Naylor has caught more than 2 days in a row often and when not catching is usually DH. I assume whoever is called up for 27th man is already on a plane or in a car driving.

 
CDAV45 said:
You're talking about a relatively small sample here so which do you believe, last season or this season's garbage? I think it's blatantly clear that Gimenez is a very talented ML player that is struggling. I think it's obvious that Brennan has been a fantastic hitter pretty much his entire baseball life. OGon may have been caught up in having to share time with Brennan.

What do you mean Clase isn't hitting triple digits anymore? I've personally witnessed him hitting it numerous time recently. His velocity isn't the issue. Location and especially location in the zone.

You really believe that Jose has become a leadoff hitter? Bell too? C'mon Wham, I have a tremendous amount of respect for you and appreciate all that you do around here. The board wouldn't be remotely the same without you, but I think you're just letting your frustrations out here instead of using your logic, and I get that.

I think the issue this season so far is a rare instance of everyone not finding their groove simultaneously for whatever reason(s). I also think that the construction of this lineup/team puts more emphasis/focus on what JRam, Bell and Naylor's performances/expectations. Zunino was suppose to help and he has been a total, brutal failure. I think they pandered to the fans a bit by keeping Bieber around and not dealing him after an extension was not reached(thank God). Do you want to extend him now? Rosario is in the way and nothing else can be said about him. Lastly, the construction of this OF is not ML quality. I know Kwan, Straw and Brennan are arguably the best defensive OF in baseball, but they don't have productive bats. In Straw's case he just sucks offensively.

In the end this isn't a contending team right now and they didn't really expect it to be honestly. The window as they see it is probably 2025-2028. There are some things to figure out between now and then and any winning/playoff experience is icing on the cake.
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I should have said that Jose and Bell are hitting "like" leadoff hitters. They have 4 and 3 home runs with OBP's of .365 and .343. Kwan's OBP is .352.

Yes, I am frustrated (aren't we all?). I agree that the players are not "finding their groove simultaneously". The problem not even a quarter or a half of them are finding their groove. At the moment I would put only Naylor and Arias (the last two games) in that category.

I should have said Clase isn't hitting triple digits "consistently". He's rarely hitting 100. Last year he was hitting it every time out.

We do have a punchless outfield and that probably won't change soon. I'm counting on the Bieber trade after the season to rectify that for next year.

Jose's barrel percentage in 2020-2021 was 10-11%. Last year it was 6.6% and this year 6.3%. His ability to barrel up a ball has gone down nearly 50% which explains the drop in home runs.

His hard hit percentage of 39.9% is the second highest of his career. His fly ball percentage is also the second highest of his career, so he should have more home runs. He's hitting a lot pop-ups and when he hits it hard he doesn't get under it.

Josh Bells fly ball percentage has dropped from 25.5% to 10% in two years.

Hopefully things will come around and everyone's performance will get back to their norms. Gimenez is a mess, however. Like Matt and Rick said, he seems to be in between - late on the fastballs and out in front of the breaking stuff. And once you get two strikes on him it's all over.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
I should have said that Jose and Bell are hitting "like" leadoff hitters. They have 4 and 3 home runs with OBP's of .365 and .343. Kwan's OBP is .352.

Yes, I am frustrated (aren't we all?). I agree that the players are not "finding their groove simultaneously". The problem not even a quarter or a half of them are finding their groove. At the moment I would put only Naylor and Arias (the last two games) in that category.

I should have said Clase isn't hitting triple digits "consistently". He's rarely hitting 100. Last year he was hitting it every time out.

We do have a punchless outfield and that probably won't change soon. I'm counting on the Bieber trade after the season to rectify that for next year.

Jose's barrel percentage in 2020-2021 was 10-11%. Last year it was 6.6% and this year 6.3%. His ability to barrel up a ball has gone down nearly 50% which explains the drop in home runs.

His hard hit percentage of 39.9% is the second highest of his career. His fly ball percentage is also the second highest of his career, so he should have more home runs. He's hitting a lot pop-ups and when he hits it hard he doesn't get under it.

Josh Bells fly ball percentage has dropped from 25.5% to 10% in two years.

Hopefully things will come around and everyone's performance will get back to their norms. Gimenez is a mess, however. Like Matt and Rick said, he seems to be in between - late on the fastballs and out in front of the breaking stuff. And once you get two strikes on him it's all over.
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I'm not really frustrated with the play as I don't have high expectations for this team just yet. What frustrates me is how the lineup is constructed and Rosario continuing to get everyday starts. I think we're just putting off the inevitable when it comes to prospect experience. I'm frustrated that Bieber wasn't dealt and Straw is still the starting CFer too.

Brennan has been hitting well the last few games, but there is no power pretty much like everyone else on the team not named Naylor.

I too think the overall performance will improve pretty much because that's all it can do....right?

It will be interesting to see what happens by the deadline.
 
What kind of team would be really interested in acquiring Bieber for one year?

A contender.

Why would they want to do that?

To vastly improve their chances to win immediately.

In that situation, what would they be willing to trade away?

Prospects, not core pieces of their offense. Trading away elite offensive cornerstones for an elite pitcher would merely be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Trading Bieber will not solve immediate offensive problems.

*******

Conversely, what kind of team would be willing to trade away an elite hitter?

A team in rebuild.

What would they want in return?

A long term influx of young talent, meaning prospects.

If you want to acquire a significant upgrade in offense, it will require trading away significant prospects.

Over the years we have traded away multiple FORs with little team control remaining. How many established offensive upgrades have we recieved in return combined for CC, Lee, Bartolo, Bauer, Clevinger, and Kluber?

Not one.

******

On the very rare occasions in which this FO has traded significant prospect capital for significant MLB upgrades, how many of those prospects ever became significant MLB players?

Not one.
 
CATS44 said:
What kind of team would be really interested in acquiring Bieber for one year?

A contender.

Why would they want to do that?

To vastly improve their chances to win immediately.

In that situation, what would they be willing to trade away?

Prospects, not core pieces of their offense. Trading away elite offensive cornerstones for an elite pitcher would merely be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Trading Bieber will not solve immediate offensive problems.

*******

Conversely, what kind of team would be willing to trade away an elite hitter?

A team in rebuild.

What would they want in return?

A long term influx of young talent, meaning prospects.

If you want to acquire a significant upgrade in offense, it will require trading away significant prospects.

Over the years we have traded away multiple FORs with little team control remaining. How many established offensive upgrades have we recieved in return combined for CC, Lee, Bartolo, Bauer, Clevinger, and Kluber?

Not one.

******

On the very rare occasions in which this FO has traded significant prospect capital for significant MLB upgrades, how many of those prospects ever became significant MLB players?

Not one.
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I would generally agree but what about when we traded Trevor Bauer for (among others) Franmil Reyes? Or Clevinger for (among others) Josh Naylor?

Those were recent instances where we traded established starting pitchers with one or 1.5 years left for a major league ready bat. Reyes already had 27 home runs for the Padres in 2019 when we acquired him for Bauer. Naylor had just turned 22 when we acquired him and had 9 home runs in 289 career at-bats.

We may end up being forced to trade Bieber for prospects, but I'm not discounting the possibility that there may be a contender with a surplus of hitting and a big hole in their rotation. It may take a three-team deal like the one involving Bauer.

Take the Mets, for instance. They have a $330 million payroll and are built to win now, but three of their starters are 36, 38, and 40 years old and they are all struggling. Think they could use Bieber next year? Would they trade prospects to a rebuilding team which sends a power bat to us and we send Bieber to the Mets? That would be a re-creation of the Bauer deal.

It could just as easily go the other way (as you suggest) where we trade excess middle infield and starting pitching prospects to a rebuilding team for a bat that's ready now.

We could do both - trade Bieber to a contender for a couple of quality prospects or emerging major league players like the Lindor deal and also trade prospects to a rebuilding team for an immediate impact bat. That might be the best option. We would be swapping Bieber for an impact bat along with swapping prospects for prospects.

By the way, it's OK to put more than one sentence in a paragraph. And your question-and-answer format sounds really condescending.
 
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This: By the way, it's OK to put more than one sentence in a paragraph. And your question-and-answer format sounds really condescending.
 
Game 3 preview:

Shane Bieber attempts to bounce back from one of the worst performances of his career (actually THE worst in terms of hits allowed). Shane was rolling along with a 2.61 ERA before his last start, but with two outs and nobody on in the 5th inning Zunino interfered with the batter's swing on a 3-2 pitch and the roof caved in.

At least the bullpen got a day off so everybody should be available. Hentges, Karinchak, and Clase also need to get back on the horse after being thrown off in the Friday night debacle.

Justin Verlander, age 40 with 245 career wins, goes for the Mets in a battle of former Cy Young winners. Verlander has started just three games, being out until May 4. His first two starts against Cincy and Detroit were solid (12 innings, 3 runs), but in his last start he gave up six runs in five innings to Tampa. However, Tampa is on another planet from the Guardians when it comes to hitting, so I expect Verlander will be pretty effective tonight. He allowed 2 runs in 5 innings against Detroit, which like the Guardians averages 3.6 runs per game.

Verlander has only pitched 17 innings so the stats might not mean much, but hitters have been successful swinging early in the count. When they put the first or second pitch in play they are 7-for-12.

When Verlander gets ahead he's very tough. When batters put the ball in play on counts of 0-2, 1-2, or 2-2 they are 2-for-29 (.070). He excels at getting batters to chase with two strikes. The key is to be aggressive early in the count but don't chase and get behind.

Bieber has a K/BB ratio of 3.3, down from his career average of 5.3. Coming into this season he was averaging 1.18 K's per inning for his career. This year it's 0.76 - a 35% decline. His strikeouts are declining with his fastball velocity.

Bieber still has the ability to work his way out of jams. With runners in scoring position and two out opponents are just 3-for-27 against him. And in all at-bats with RISP they're hitting .159. The problem is that with nobody on base they're hitting .301 with an on-base percentage of .363. He's been allowing a lot of base runners and then having to make good pitches in clutch situations. It's a dangerous way to make a living on a team that scores 3.6 runs per game.

The Guardians had 11 hits and 5 walks in their last game so maybe the ice is starting to thaw on their frozon offense.
 
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Wham with the Right Hand said:
I would generally agree but what about when we traded Trevor Bauer for (among others) Franmil Reyes? Or Clevinger for (among others) Josh Naylor?

Those were recent instances where we traded established starting pitchers with one or 1.5 years left for a major league ready bat. Reyes already had 27 home runs for the Padres in 2019 when we acquired him for Bauer. Naylor had just turned 22 when we acquired him and had 9 home runs in 289 career at-bats.

We may end up being forced to trade Bieber for prospects, but I'm not discounting the possibility that there may be a contender with a surplus of hitting and a big hole in their rotation. It may take a three-team deal like the one involving Bauer.

Take the Mets, for instance. They have a $330 million payroll and are built to win now, but three of their starters are 36, 38, and 40 years old and they are all struggling. Think they could use Bieber next year? Would they trade prospects to a rebuilding team which sends a power bat to us and we send Bieber to the Mets? That would be a re-creation of the Bauer deal.

It could just as easily go the other way (as you suggest) where we trade excess middle infield and starting pitching prospects to a rebuilding team for a bat that's ready now.

We could do both - trade Bieber to a contender for a couple of quality prospects or emerging major league players like the Lindor deal and also trade prospects to a rebuilding team for an immediate impact bat. That might be the best option. We would be swapping Bieber for an impact bat along with swapping prospects for prospects.

By the way, it's OK to put more than one sentence in a paragraph. And your question-and-answer format sounds really condescending.
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Don't forget Puig.

@CATS44 is just flat-out wrong again. He's striking out worse than Zunino
 
And, with any trade, vets have more value (after factoring in years of future service before FA) than AAA prospects as they are proven where there is variability in AAA (will they succeed or fail and even if they succeed how much time do they need to acclimate). If we are not contending this year, we can take the season to break in a long-term right handed bat to sub Naylor at 1B and longer term solution than Bell. He has fielding warts at 3B and OF (like Naylor and Bell) but that is what Cleveland has to live with, without spending much $$$$. I can see a trade of Bieber for Parada + Vientos + other good prospect or two. Right now, Mets are pretty well set for their infield and catcher so all these guys are gravy to them.

Yet, Bieber is still a valuable #2/#3 starter. Per BR, he has a 1.4 WAR (top 10 WARs for starting pitching is 1.6). FG lists him with a .9 WAR (around 40ish - and Ohtani is also about 1.2 for both hitting and pitching for reference). On ERA, he is still around top 30 SP. Overall, his value is maybe a top 15-25 SP trade piece - not CY level from a couple years ago. Any team would love to have this as with a 2-3-2 format and fewer days off to squeeze in the WC series, teams will want 4 solid starters vs getting away with 3 in the past.

And, there are not usually too many starting pitchers on the trade market - especially with more team fighting for playoffs. Chicago is the team that others will look at with Lynn and Clevinger probably moving on and Giolitto and Lopez also FAs. But, will teams want Lynn and Clevinger over Bieber. For Lopez and Giolito, I would think Sox would want to try to retain them (versus trading them - unless they do Yankees Chapman trade-resign) as they have no other pitching coming up through the system (with Burke struggling this year) and fans are getting restless (more than us).

But, in the end, the next few weeks will tell the story as we are still only 4 back of Twins. And, if we are still in it, Sox being 7.5 back are not giving up either even though they have the 3rd worst record in baseball (we are 10th). But, as the Twins are squandering their chances, there will be no big trade until it gets sorted out some more (as we have played 2nd easiest SOS and Chicago 8th hardest - .510 vs .482 and thus why ESPN RPI ranks both of us in the bottom 6 of their rankings).
 
CATS trying to do the Windy meme in text form.
 
Knowing Tito, Gimenez will be back in starting lineup for game 2 tonight.
 
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