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The 2020 Cleveland Indians

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OPS+ doesn’t matter for lead-off hitters

Also, describing Hernandez as a .333 OBP% guy when it’s by far his worst production in the last four years is as disingenuous as describing Santana as a .397 OBP% guy.

I feel like Phil Connors right now.
Except most of the time they're not leading off the inning. The first inning might be the only time they hit leadoff the entire game. Last year Lindor came up with runners on base 191 times. Does OPS+ matter with runners on? Or not at all?

He also led the team in at-bats and plate appearances. Call me nuts but I want one of my best hitters leading the team in PA's.

If you don't like feeling like Phil just stop saying that last year's statistics don't count. Or ignoring the fact that Hernandez's numbers have declined significantly two years in a row.

It's possible Hernandez can get back to where he was three years ago as a 27-year-old with a .373 OBP. I sure hope so. But I don't expect it.

Santana's career OBP is .367, so .397 is high. But he changed his approach at the plate after hitting a career low .229 in Philly and it made a difference.
 
Also, describing Hernandez as a .333 OBP% guy when it’s by far his worst production in the last four years is as disingenuous as describing Santana as a .397 OBP% guy.
Here's the Fangraphs comment on Santana in their power rankings of first basemen going into this season.

"After a season in Philadelphia and a winter detour to Seattle, Santana landed back in Cleveland, and enjoyed the best season of his career. His 4.4 WAR led all AL first basemen, while his .281/.397/.515 line, 135 wRC+ and 34 homers all represented career highs (the last one tying his 2016 total). For a player about to enter his age-34 season, there's generally only one direction to go from there, but underlying Santana's big year was a change in approach; becoming less pull-happy resulted in his best performance against infield shifts since 2013 (.296 AVG, 69 wRC+), and he traded loft (an average launch angle that dropped from 15.1 degrees to 11.8) for punch, gaining three miles per hour in average exit velocity (from 88.8 mph to 91.8, placing him in the 93rd percentile). If he sticks with the new approach, he might stay closer to the top of his game rather than reverting to his modest 2017-18 level."
 
Except most of the time they're not leading off the inning. The first inning might be the only time they hit leadoff the entire game. Last year Lindor came up with runners on base 191 times. Does OPS+ matter with runners on? Or not at all?

He also led the team in at-bats and plate appearances. Call me nuts but I want one of my best hitters leading the team in PA's.

If you don't like feeling like Phil just stop saying that last year's statistics don't count. Or ignoring the fact that Hernandez's numbers have declined significantly two years in a row.

It's possible Hernandez can get back to where he was three years ago as a 27-year-old with a .373 OBP. I sure hope so. But I don't expect it.

Santana's career OBP is .367, so .397 is high. But he changed his approach at the plate after hitting a career low .229 in Philly and it made a difference.
So, now subtract the slugging value that you lose from leading off with nobody on base, and only add back in the extra AB's where the leadoff man got to bat but the 2nd guy in the order didn't (or the third, whatever spot you're trying to put Lindor into).
 
For those out you curious about why it’s so imperative to not waste a power hitter in the leadoff spot


I don't really care about OPS+ when it comes to my lead-off hitter. That's more of a measure of an all-around hitter. You don't want your best hitter in that spot because it's the only spot in the lineup that is guaranteed to bat with the bases empty at least once each game.

I don't see Hernandez's OBP% as a trend, I see last year as an outlier, which is why I said to look at the three seasons prior to 2019 (2016-2018). He was coming off a career-high walk rate in 2018 (13.4%) after back to back years of it being over 10%, and then it suddenly dropped to 6.7%. That looks like an outlier to me, not a trend. In fact, 2016-18, Hernandez had a better OBP% than Santana in each season.

I want to arrange the lineup in such a way that our best players come to the plate with the most possible guys on base. I believe putting Hernandez in the lead-off spot accomplishes that.

2019
OrderPABases empty% with Bases emptyRunners on% with Runners on
175050266.9%24833.1%
273644360.2%29339.8%
371641558.0%30142.0%
469835651.0%34249.0%
567837455.2%30444.8%
666136254.8%29945.2%
764835955.4%28944.6%
862334054.6%28345.4%
961435858.3%25641.7%

What I have created here is a chart that shows the opportunities each spot in the lineup got on last year's team.

Here is 2018's team
OrderPABases empty% with Bases emptyRunners on% with Runners on
177451967.1%25532.9%
275544058.3%31541.7%
373038853.2%34246.8%
471334047.7%37352.3%
570337653.5%32746.5%
668439657.9%28842.1%
766836354.3%30545.7%
864535054.3%29545.7%
962835456.4%27443.6%

I can't find a way to justify having Santana or Lindor leading off and having such a significantly lower percentage of their plate appearances occur with runners on base.
 
Using your own method of ranking, name the ten greatest hitters of all time.

How many of them batted leadoff?

Again, name the ten greatest hitters in the game today.

How many of them bat leadoff.

There are good reasons that the ones you chose did/do not bat leadoff.

The idea that you want your best hitter to accumulate the most at bats sounds good on the surface, but the reality is that you want your best hitter to be batting when he can do the most damage...and he cant do that when he is batting with nobody on base. He also cant do that as often when he is batting behind the weakest batters in the lineup.

If you had Willie Mays today, in his prime...or Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Mike Trout...would you want him batting leadoff?

Not me.
 
I know this guy had been talked about extensively earlier in this thread...

 
I know this guy had been talked about extensively earlier in this thread...


I've always thought that health should be a main consideration in evaluation of players. It's unfortunate, but true. A player, no matter how good when healthy, has zero value when on the IL.

Buxton is a major case in point.

His ability to take the field is not dependable. As such, an org cant pencil him in as an asset.

The Indians have several cases of their own. Naquin and Zimmer have long histories of not being able to play regularly.

It's the same as a player having a long history of high K percentage or low OBP.. After a long enough track record, it is highly unlikely to change.

Baseball, like any other meritocracy, is often cruel. Produce or goodbye, and there are no acceptable excuses...no forgiving due to extenuating circumstances.
 
Zimmer doing some yard work tonight.

Would love to see him find it. Guy is death to flying things.
 
Using your own method of ranking, name the ten greatest hitters of all time.

How many of them batted leadoff?

Again, name the ten greatest hitters in the game today.

How many of them bat leadoff.

There are good reasons that the ones you chose did/do not bat leadoff.

The idea that you want your best hitter to accumulate the most at bats sounds good on the surface, but the reality is that you want your best hitter to be batting when he can do the most damage...and he cant do that when he is batting with nobody on base. He also cant do that as often when he is batting behind the weakest batters in the lineup.

If you had Willie Mays today, in his prime...or Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Mike Trout...would you want him batting leadoff?

Not me.
Who is the best hitter on the Indians? In a normal season I'd say Ramirez. In 2017 and 2018 his OPS were .957 and .939, which led the team both years. I think last year was an anomaly, at least in the first half, until he got back to his normal approach in the second half and was over .900 again. So I'd have Hosey batting second, like Trout hits second for the Angels. I'm willing to go with the analytics that say put your best hitter second.

Analytics also show that more players have their best seasons at age 27 than any other, and Hosey is 27. I expect him to have a huge 60 games.

It looks like Lindor will be hitting 3rd and Reyes 4th, so do we want Los batting 1st or 5th?

Santana is our best OBP guy, IMO. Career .367 and after changing his approach to more of a gap-to-gap line drive hitter last year, as described by Fangraphs, he upped it to .397. I want the guy who gets on base the most coming to bat the most. Having runners on base forces the pitcher to pitch from the stretch and limits to some extent what the defense can do in terms of shifting. A runner on first opens a hole on the right side. How many times have I seen a ground ball that would have been an easy out with the bases empty roll into right field because the first baseman was holding the runner?

I don't have the numbers but there is a huge difference between the percentage of times a team scores with a runner on first and nobody out as opposed to one out and nobody on.

But wait, Santana also hits home runs, so we need him to hit down in the order where he'll get more opportunites with men on base, right? On some teams, yes, but we have Hosey, Lindor, Reyes, Domingo Santana, and Luplow as big bat run producers. Do we need one more, or do we need a guy with an OBP in the upper .300's leading off? It's a fair debate. I just put more value on getting a runner on and putting pressure on the pitcher with Hosey, Lindor and Reyes coming up.

Best on-base guy leads off followed by your best overall hitter. I don't think Tito will do it, but I think it would work better than having Hernandez leading off. Why have your 5th or 6th or 7th best hitter get the most plate appearances, especially when he's not even your best OBP guy?
 
Who is the best hitter on the Indians? In a normal season I'd say Ramirez. In 2017 and 2018 his OPS were .957 and .939, which led the team both years. I think last year was an anomaly, at least in the first half, until he got back to his normal approach in the second half and was over .900 again. So I'd have Hosey batting second, like Trout hits second for the Angels. I'm willing to go with the analytics that say put your best hitter second.

Analytics also show that more players have their best seasons at age 27 than any other, and Hosey is 27. I expect him to have a huge 60 games.

It looks like Lindor will be hitting 3rd and Reyes 4th, so do we want Los batting 1st or 5th?

Santana is our best OBP guy, IMO. Career .367 and after changing his approach to more of a gap-to-gap line drive hitter last year, as described by Fangraphs, he upped it to .397. I want the guy who gets on base the most coming to bat the most. Having runners on base forces the pitcher to pitch from the stretch and limits to some extent what the defense can do in terms of shifting. A runner on first opens a hole on the right side. How many times have I seen a ground ball that would have been an easy out with the bases empty roll into right field because the first baseman was holding the runner?

I don't have the numbers but there is a huge difference between the percentage of times a team scores with a runner on first and nobody out as opposed to one out and nobody on.

But wait, Santana also hits home runs, so we need him to hit down in the order where he'll get more opportunites with men on base, right? On some teams, yes, but we have Hosey, Lindor, Reyes, Domingo Santana, and Luplow as big bat run producers. Do we need one more, or do we need a guy with an OBP in the upper .300's leading off? It's a fair debate. I just put more value on getting a runner on and putting pressure on the pitcher with Hosey, Lindor and Reyes coming up.

Best on-base guy leads off followed by your best overall hitter. I don't think Tito will do it, but I think it would work better than having Hernandez leading off. Why have your 5th or 6th or 7th best hitter get the most plate appearances, especially when he's not even your best OBP guy?

If you’re including Jordan Luplow and Domingo Santana among your “big run producers” in the middle of a major league batting order, it’s no wonder Santana is going to hit where he hits.

Best OBP guy leads off if your lineup depth and ability to produce runs don’t come from a NRI and a platoon guy.

That’s just the reality this team faces.
 
Zimmer doing some yard work tonight.

Would love to see him find it. Guy is death to flying things.
Yep, a couple of guys I had almost written off are making some noise this week. Chang and Zimmer. Maybe that new batting stance and approach by Zimmer will pay off for him. However, the clock is ticking. He's 27 and probably won't get to play this year since we have Mercado and DeShields. The pandemic could really hurt the careers of Zimmer and Triston McKenzie - guys who have missed a lot of time to injury and really need to play.

Outfield is getting pretty crowded. We added two new outfielders in Reyes, who was a DH last year, and DeShields, although we lost Puig. Zimmer is back and playing well. Greg Allen hit a right-handed home run the other day, although he'll need to do a lot more after he choked his opportunity last season. Mercado, Luplow, and Naquin are still here. Daniel Johnson is knocking on the door.

It seems to me that we have a lot of incomplete players. Reyes has power but is limited defensively, although he's not as bad as some might think. Zimmer had great speed, defense, and a cannon for an arm, but his bat is questionable. Same for DeShields. Allen can run, but can he hit enough to play outfield? Mercado plays good defense and has 20-HR power and tremendous speed on the bases, but will his bat play? Can Luplow hit right-handed pitching?

I can see Tito starting off a game with Naquin, Mercado, and Reyes in the outfield and end with Zimmer, DeShields and Mercado if we have a lead after seven innings. I'm sure Hand will love coming in to pitch the 9th with that outfield behind him.
 
Why is this so complicated?

Cesar Hernandez has a .352 career OBP which is excellent. I, and others, expect him to improve his plate discipline in 2020 vs. 2019

Carlos Santana has a .367 career OBP, also excellent. I, and others, don't expect him to replicate his 2019 career best season.

Like I said yesterday, ad nauseam
 
If you’re including Jordan Luplow and Domingo Santana among your “big run producers” in the middle of a major league batting order, it’s no wonder Santana is going to hit where he hits.

Best OBP guy leads off if your lineup depth and ability to produce runs don’t come from a NRI and a platoon guy.

That’s just the reality this team faces.
The reality the team faces is that Domingo Santana was hitting .273/.814 on July 24 when he injured his elbow making a throw. He sat out three days and tried to return, but was only 7-for-59 (.119 BA) the rest of the season. This year he'll be 27, right in the prime of his career. If his elbow is fully recovered I expect him to be a solid run producer. He failed to finish either of the last two seasons after hitting .278/.875 with 30 home runs in 151 games in 2017, so there's a real question of whether he'll be able to stay healthy for 60 games, despite still being young.

Luplow put up insane numbers against LHP's, of course.

I'm more than happy with a platoon of Domingo and Luplow at DH. Put the DH 5th or 6th in the order..
 

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