The 2020 Cleveland Indians

Urban said:

Why is this so complicated?

Cesar Hernandez has a .352 career OBP which is excellent. I, and others, expect him to improve his plate discipline in 2020 vs. 2019

Carlos Santana has a .367 career OBP, also excellent. I, and others, don't expect him to replicate his 2019 career best season.

Like I said yesterday, ad nauseam

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It depends on whether you want to look at career numbers or more recent numbers. Is Santana the same hitter now that he was 10 years ago? Five years ago? If he is, then use career numbers. If you believe he changed his hitting approach, as the Fangraphs numbers clearly show and as he said he did, then the more recent numbers have more validity.

Hernandez has a two-year downward trend. Is that an anomaly? We don't know, but I suspect it might be. I hope he improves his plate discipline because it sure went all to hell last year. Maybe if they hit him leadoff he'll go back to his 2017 approach with similar results. It's very possible. I just prefer recent numbers, thinking they're a better reflecrtion of where a player is right now in his career. Others want to average 10 years of performance and say this is what we'll get.

The Athletic posted an industry survey today regarding starting pitchers. Those surveyed were tasked with ranking guys in four tiers (Aces, Applicants, No. 2s and 3s, and Guys). Both Bieber and Clevinger were ranked in the second tier (Applicants - "A pitcher who has the potential to graduate into the elite group but hasn’t quite gotten there yet. Or, perhaps they’ve been at the top in the past, and they’re capable of getting there again. This is an applicant").

Only former Tribe starter to make the list was Trevor Bauer (tier 3). No mention of Kluber.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Score: 2.90
Aces votes: 1
Age: 25
2019 stats: 15-8, 3.28 ERA, 214.1 IP, 3.32 FIP, 10.9 strikeouts per nine.

The Beliebers, er, believers, see an applicant whose command and savvy put him in the conversation for status as an ace. The doubters look at his stuff and wonder if it will be enough to graduate. “The lack of top-end power likely keeps him out,” one AL official said. Still, age is on Bieber’s side, leaving him with more chances to draw more notice. “He’s boring good,” an AL executive said. “And probably underrated.”

Mike Clevinger, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Score: 2.70
Aces votes: 2
Age: 29
2019 stats: 13-4, 2.71 ERA, 126 IP, 2.49 FIP, 12.1 strikeouts per nine.

In one way, Clevinger has paid a price for pitching in Cleveland. “Put Clevinger on a bigger-market team and he is far more well-known and appreciated,” an AL executive said. But in a more meaningful way, pitching in Cleveland has been a career-changer. While most organizations in recent years have devoted time and effort to developing a robust pitching infrastructure, few have executed those plans better than the Indians. “I think his makeup and work ethic and aptitude have allowed him to continue to get better,” said one AL executive. “I think being around (Trevor) Bauer and the Indians’ pitching development has really helped him. He’s taken advantage of all the people and systems around him really well.”

Wham with the Right Hand said:

It depends on whether you want to look at career numbers or more recent numbers. Is Santana the same hitter now that he was 10 years ago? Five years ago? If he is, then use career numbers. If you believe he changed his hitting approach, as the Fangraphs numbers clearly show and as he said he did, then the more recent numbers have more validity.

Hernandez has a two-year downward trend. Is that an anomaly? We don't know, but I suspect it might be. I hope he improves his plate discipline because it sure went all to hell last year. Maybe if they hit him leadoff he'll go back to his 2017 approach with similar results. It's very possible. I just prefer recent numbers, thinking they're a better reflecrtion of where a player is right now in his career. Others want to average 10 years of performance and say this is what we'll get.

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This is my last post on the matter because we're kind of talking in circles and at this point it's better off to agree to disagree and see it play out. You say you prefer recent numbers, but in reality you really mean only 2019 numbers. I mean, Hernandez had a .356 OBP in 2018

Wasn't Carlos on a two-year downward trend entering last season too? As you've mentioned, he made adjustments and came back much better in his age 33 season. I'd love to see it, but I don't expect him to hit .281 again this year. I do however expect him to walk at a similar rate though. He's been remarkably consistent there throughout his career.

Hernandez made adjustments last year- as evidenced by the splits you posted- which show he was much more aggressive at the plate (spike in swing rate outside the zone) and unsucessfully tried launching the ball more (big spike in infield fly balls). Based off of his worst season since 2015, we'll surely see Hernandez continue to make adjustments, right? Clearly his plate discipline has been a strength in his career and something he can fall back on. I would expect his walk rate to bounce back closer towards his career average than to trend vs. his career low.

Urban said:

This is my last post on the matter because we're kind of talking in circles and at this point it's better off to agree to disagree and see it play out. You say you prefer recent numbers, but in reality you really mean only 2019 numbers. I mean, Hernandez had a .356 OBP in 2018

Wasn't Carlos on a two-year downward trend entering last season too? As you've mentioned, he made adjustments and came back much better in his age 33 season. I'd love to see it, but I don't expect him to hit .281 again this year. I do however expect him to walk at a similar rate though. He's been remarkably consistent there throughout his career.

Hernandez made adjustments last year- as evidenced by the splits you posted- which show he was much more aggressive at the plate (spike in swing rate outside the zone) and unsucessfully tried launching the ball more (big spike in infield fly balls). Based off of his worst season since 2015, we'll surely see Hernandez continue to make adjustments, right? Clearly his plate discipline has been a strength in his career and something he can fall back on. I would expect his walk rate to bounce back closer towards his career average than to trend vs. his career low.

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Just the fact that our front office likes his chances is good enough for me too. They do their homework - right Casey Blake?

PS - didn't Carlos Santana play with Hernandez on the Phils? No doubt they talked to Carlos as part of their process.

Gson said:

too many what?.. please clarify..

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The point I was making is that Santana draws a lot of walks. Putting him lower in the order will cost him at bats. That translates into fewer base runners for the team. It would be a bad move having him down there at 6.

So I missed most of the somewhat circular lineup argument of yesterday. I like Hernandez in the lead off spot,because I think he is a guy who has shown good on base skills throughout his career, and I think he is a good possibility to return to his standard in this abbreviated season. Beyond that, I see no other obvious candidate other than, perhaps, Santana. I am glad Lindor is no longer leading off.

ncinthenext3 said:

The point I was making is that Santana draws a lot of walks. Putting him lower in the order will cost him at bats. That translates into fewer base runners for the team. It would be a bad move having him down there at 6.

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Who said to have him 6th?

Seems like he’s penciled in at 4th

Santana has been used in the leadoff spot before and if he had a little more speed, he could easily be a top traditional lead off hitter. That being stated, he is good for 30 HRs, so i would rather have that down somewhat in the lineup. So I would like the lower power but have the OBP% in the first spot personally.

Urban said:

Based off of his worst season since 2015, we'll surely see Hernandez continue to make adjustments, right? Clearly his plate discipline has been a strength in his career and something he can fall back on. I would expect his walk rate to bounce back closer towards his career average than to trend vs. his career low.

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I'm hoping he will do exactly that. Trying to become a home run hitter isn't working for him. Santana made an adjustment last year and had the best season of his career. If Hernandez can get back to being a .360 OBP guy I have no issue with him hitting leadoff. Besides, it's only for 60 games plus the playoffs. I doubt he'll be here in 2021.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

I'm hoping he will do exactly that. Trying to become a home run hitter isn't working for him. Santana made an adjustment last year and had the best season of his career. If Hernandez can get back to being a .360 OBP guy I have no issue with him hitting leadoff. Besides, it's only for 60 games plus the playoffs. I doubt he'll be here in 2021.

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The "sprint" of a season is going to wreak havoc on most all normal projections...many guys will over perform career numbers, and typically solid contributors might fall far short. I would certainly still bank on the guys with good track records to perform, but most teams will need to get lucky (with health and performance) to succeed. There is just such a small window to "catch up".

Derek said:

Who said to have him 6th?

Seems like he’s penciled in at 4th

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Unless he's hitting leadoff (never a mention of hitting 6th) where he'd get a lot more AB's and more BB's.. NC apparently missread the comment...

Hernandez
JRam
Lindor
Carlos
Reyes

That's the first five pretty much every day.

The first four have OBPs around .350 or above. All four have K rates around 15%. Its hard to get thru them without at least a few productive at bats....with the likelihood that...if they dont do damage as a group, Reyes is gonna have a lot of opportunities to do it for them.

I dont know what the Tribes record has been over the last few seasons when it scored first, but it has to be pretty darned good...and that's what I'd build my lineup for...the best shot at scoring first, and scoring lots.

Luplow/Naquin/Domingo
Luplow/Naquin/Domingo
Mercado/Berto
Berto/Mercado

CATS44 said:

Hernandez
JRam
Lindor
Carlos
Reyes

That's the first five pretty much every day.

The first four have OBPs around .350 or above. All four have K rates around 15%. Its hard to get thru them without at least a few productive at bats....with the likelihood that...if they dont do damage as a group, Reyes is gonna have a lot of opportunities to do it for them.

I dont know what the Tribes record has been over the last few seasons when it scored first, but it has to be pretty darned good...and that's what I'd build my lineup for...the best shot at scoring first, and scoring lots.

Luplow/Naquin/Domingo
Luplow/Naquin/Domingo
Mercado/Berto
Berto/Mercado

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Sign me up for that, Cats...adjustments are likely, but that is our best starting point!

When you think about those first 5 guys - compared to last year's early season offensive disaster area...big difference. Combine that with our Central/Pittsburgh dose of scheduling and it's time to dream.

2B Hernandez
3B JRam
SS Lindor
1B Carlos
DH Reyes


The majority of remaining at-bats will be coming from the LF, CF, RF spots which all seem to be platoons at this point.

LHH - Tyler Naquin, Jake Bauers, Bradley Zimmer, Daniel Johnson
RHH - Domingo Santana, Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado, Delino DeShields
SH - Greg Allen

Good luck figuring out how to play 3 a night and the matchups.

No idea how they're going to do it, someone needs to go take it. Ideally, you get Zimmer to hit at a league average level since he's likely the most elite defender of the group.